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Just two weeks into the season, the race for the College Football Playoff is already in chaos.
Florida State fell flat on its face in both Week 0 and Week 1, and seemed to have thrown itself out of the race for the 12-team Playoff. In Week 2, Notre Dame lost at home to Northern Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite, just when the path to the Playoff seemed clear after a road win at Texas A&M.
The beauty of the expanded Playoff is that a loss early in the season doesn’t hurt a team’s playoff chances. Sure, it’s going to be an uphill battle, but in the four-team format, a loss early in the season can hurt a team’s chances much more. Now, we’re going to see teams’ stocks go up and down throughout the season. And it’s going to be a bumpy road from week to week.
Every Tuesday I look at which teams are moving up and down in my College Football Playoff Projections model. It’s a long season, so most teams will likely be in either end of this space, especially considering that a team’s chances of making the Playoff are also dependent on the results of other teams.
GALLING DEEPER
Our College Football Playoff Model Projections: Notre Dame Out; USC and Tennessee In
Florida State’s odds dropped from 54 percent in the preseason to 1 percent after Week 1 thanks to losses to Georgia Tech and Boston College. Here are the players we’ll be watching after Week 2:
Replenish stock
Increasing chances for the play-offs
| Team | Pre-season | After week 2 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
|
9.1% |
59.5% |
50.4 |
|
|
17.9% |
56.6% |
38.7 |
|
|
19.3% |
46.8% |
27.5 |
|
|
44.5% |
70.2% |
25.7 |
|
|
45.7% |
65.8% |
20.1 |
|
|
54.9% |
74.4% |
19.5 |
|
|
70.2% |
88.7% |
18.5 |
|
|
11.5% |
28.1% |
16.6 |
|
|
30.5% |
40.3% |
9.8 |
|
|
1.0% |
8.3% |
7.3 |
USC
The Trojans entered the season with just a 9 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to my model. After a 2-0 start, including a win over LSU, they’ve jumped to a 60 percent chance and are a projected 10-seed with a first-round showdown with Alabama.
That might be a bit optimistic for USC, but Lincoln Riley consistently produces top-notch offense and new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn appears to have improved the defense significantly in two weeks. USC held LSU to 20 points and followed that up with a shutout of Utah State. The last few years under Alex Grinch have been a disaster and if USC has a competent — dare I say good — defense, it will play until December in its first season in the Big Ten.
Another thing that has helped the Trojans’ playoff chances is the fact that future opponents Michigan, Notre Dame, and Wisconsin have dropped significantly in my model’s rankings after two weeks. USC is off this week before traveling to Michigan in Week 4 and then hosting Wisconsin in Week 5. If USC gets through those two games unscathed, the schedule looks good and it could be a favorite in every game except one (against Penn State on Oct. 12).
GALLING DEEPER
CFP Bubble Watch: The Changing Perceptions of USC, Iowa State — and Notre Dame
Tennessee
I probably underestimated the abilities of new starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava at the start of the season. Tennessee made the playoffs in 18 percent of my model’s preseason simulations, but that number has jumped to 57 percent, with a big jump after a 51-10 win over NC State. The Vols are now projected as the 11th seed.
Tennessee is 12th in my overall rankings, with a top-five offense and a defense that now ranks in the top 40. I wonder if that last one isn’t a little low, given the talent Tennessee is showing on defense. NC State managed just an 18th percentile success rate against the Vols on Saturday.
The only things holding Tennessee back from its playoff chances are road trips to Oklahoma and Georgia, plus a home game against Alabama. If the Vols can go 1-2 in those games — my model predicts they’ll win at least one — I think they’ll be in the playoffs without further ado.
Tennessee rose to No. 7 in the AP poll after beating NC State. (Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)
Miami
I didn’t believe in the Hurricanes in preseason and I still have questions about how far they can actually go. However, given how badly they beat Florida and the current state of the ACC, Miami is in a great position. They’re the favorite in my model to win the ACC, which projects the Canes as the fourth seed. They’ve jumped from a 19 percent chance of making the Playoff to a 47 percent chance.
Washington State transfer quarterback Cam Ward has established himself as an early Heisman Trophy candidate, and my model projects Miami as a top-15 offense. The defense isn’t bad either. The Canes are the most balanced team in the ACC, and as long as they learn how to run the clock properly, 10 wins should happen.
The schedule looks good, as my model has Miami as a favorite in every game except one (a slight underdog at Louisville on Oct. 19). The Canes avoid Clemson, and Florida State and Virginia Tech are underperforming early in the season, paving the way for Miami to move up to the top of the ACC for a first-round bye.
Stock down
Declining Playoff Chances
| team | preseason | now | delta |
|---|---|---|---|
|
53.5% |
0.4% |
-53.1 |
|
|
57.6% |
24.5% |
-33.1 |
|
|
36.8% |
4.5% |
-32.3 |
|
|
61.8% |
31.8% |
-30.0 |
|
|
25.0% |
6.5% |
-18.5 |
|
|
21.7% |
5.4% |
-16.3 |
|
|
23.7% |
9.6% |
-14.1 |
|
|
19.6% |
6.1% |
-13.5 |
|
|
33.6% |
23.0% |
-10.6 |
|
|
86.4% |
76.4% |
-10.0 |
Michigan
Michigan has seen its College Football Playoff odds drop from 37 percent to 5 percent after a forgettable win over Fresno State and a blowout loss to Texas. I wasn’t very bullish on Michigan at the start of the year, and it has still underperformed my expectations. My model had Michigan as the second team out before the season started, and now it’s not even on the bubble — or close to it. At this point, it would be a shock if the Wolverines made the Playoff, with USC, Oregon and a trip to Ohio State still on the schedule.
The defense has been solid through two games. Yes, Quinn Ewers and Texas have outscored Michigan, but I find it hard to downgrade the Wolverines too much against an elite offense. However, Michigan’s offense has been worse than expected. Through two games, Michigan has a 37 percent success rate and has struggled to create explosive plays. My model predicts the Wolverines are a borderline top-50 offense.
Without a competent offense, it won’t matter how good Michigan’s defense is this season. With what’s left on the schedule, eight wins will be a good result, as Michigan looks like a more talented version of Iowa as it stands.
GALLING DEEPER
How Bad Are Michigan’s Problems? Final Thoughts After Texas Loss
Notre Dame
Entering Week 2, fresh off a win over Texas A&M, Notre Dame was projected to make the College Football Playoff 73 percent of the time and host a home playoff game 57 percent of the time. Then Northern Illinois came to South Bend and surprised the Fighting Irish. The surprising loss dropped Notre Dame to a 32 percent chance of making the Playoff and a 15 percent chance of hosting a first-round game.
Like rival Michigan, the offense is the problem. Notre Dame had a 28th percentile expected points added (EPA) per game on Saturday, which is unacceptable against a MAC school. Add to that their inability to generate explosive plays, and disaster is not hard to predict. Without a better offense, Notre Dame is going to be in close games all season.
I should note that the defense also struggled to stop Northern Illinois, as the Huskies had a 44 percent success rate against the Irish. Was this a product of the defense being on the field too much after the offense struggled? Time will tell.
The rest of the schedule is manageable, so playoff hopes aren’t completely dashed. The Irish could still be favorites in every game except USC. However, with such a bad loss on the record, I wonder if the committee would punish a 10-2 Notre Dame more than a 9-3 SEC team.
GALLING DEEPER
Sampson: Notre Dame has been here before under Marcus Freeman. That’s the problem
Oregon
Oregon may be 2-0, but it hasn’t performed anywhere near preseason expectations. It managed to beat FCS opponent Idaho by just 10 points, beating Boise State on a last-second field goal. That’s caused its College Football Playoff odds to drop 10 percentage points since the start of the season, from 86 percent to 76 percent.
From my perspective, the Ducks haven’t been as strong as they thought in the trenches. They’ve struggled to find explosive plays and have struggled on third downs and in the red zone. Dillon Gabriel has been pressured on 28.7 percent of dropbacks and has a -0.50 EPA/play on those dropbacks. That’s too much pressure considering the schedule the Ducks have played so far. That will need to improve for Big Ten play.
On the bright side, Oregon is 2-0 and the schedule is favorable. The Ducks don’t play USC or Penn State, and my model predicts they’re double-digit favorites in every game except Ohio State and Michigan. And at this rate, I’m not sure Michigan can score against a good opponent. So Oregon benefits from its schedule, even if the results after two games make me think they could lose a game they shouldn’t lose and aren’t as safe a bet to make the Playoff as was thought in the preseason.
GALLING DEEPER
What We Learned in Week 2 on the CFP: Notre Dame’s Outlook, Clemson Fights Back
(Top photos of Miller Moss and Sherrone Moore: Michael Owens and Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
