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Week 4 of college football didn’t really bring any stunning surprises, but we did learn more about the teams that should be in contention for the College Football Playoff at the end of the year. Some teams are out, others aren’t as dominant as we might have expected, and the pool for one spot looks a lot bigger than it did a week ago.
Here are five lessons from Week 4 that relate to the CFP:
1. Clemson isn’t done yet
It seemed like the college football world was done with Clemson after its 34-3 opening-season loss to Georgia, but reports of the Tigers’ demise may have been greatly exaggerated. Since that loss, Clemson has won 66-20 over Appalachian State and a 59-35 victory over NC State on Saturday.
Yes, the Wolfpack started with a real freshman quarterback, but that didn’t matter. Clemson led 28-0 in the first quarter and the game was over quickly. The Tigers used quarterback Cade Klubnik’s legs a bit more, highlighted by a 55-yard touchdown run. Running back Phil Mafah left the game briefly with an apparent shoulder injury, but returned and immediately scored on a 38-yard touchdown run. He finished with 107 yards on seven carries.
Clemson doesn’t have to be a top-four team to make the CFP. The Tigers just have to win the ACC. The Clemson we’ve seen the last few weeks seems like a team that could get an automatic or maybe even at-large spot. Clemson hosts Stanford next week and then travels to Florida State. The Tigers don’t play Miami in the regular season and host Louisville, making for a manageable slate.
According to Clemson, it has a 29 percent chance of making the Playoff. The Athletics‘s predictions, with a 25 percent chance of winning the ACC.
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Much of the hype surrounding the Volunteers this season has been about their quarterback, but Saturday’s 25-15 win over No. 15 Oklahoma was a different approach. The Vols knew Oklahoma couldn’t get the ball against their defense, and they played conservatively in the second half to secure a win without any style points, and that’s OK. (Oklahoma’s defense also appears to be very good, so don’t play too risky.)
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Iamaleava was good, completing 13 of 21 passes for 194 yards and a touchdown, but the Vols ran the ball 52 times. Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold was such a disaster, with three turnovers, that he was benched in the first half for true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. Tennessee led 19-3 at halftime and played the second half knowing the Sooners would never catch him.
Oklahoma finished with 222 total yards and 1.1 yards per rush, including sacks. This Tennessee defense is really good, and that’s why the Vols are in a great CFP position. Their chances of making the Playoff increased from 58 percent to 75 percent, according to our model.
3. USC missed the chance to make an early statement
The Trojans have improved, especially on defense. That much is clear. There is reason to feel good about the direction of the program under Lincoln Riley. But Saturday’s 27-24 loss to Michigan was a missed opportunity. USC came back from a 14-0 deficit to take the lead in Ann Arbor, but last year’s poor tackling came at the worst possible time, as the Wolverines ran for a winning touchdown in the final seconds.
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Michigan threw for just 32 yards. The Wolverines had fewer than 20 total yards in the second half, prior to their final drive. But USC threw a costly pick-six and the defense stumbled at the end. A win would have put USC at 3-0 with wins over LSU and Michigan and a manageable path to a CFP spot. Instead, the loss means that the Oct. 12 home game against Penn State could be a must-win for its Big Ten championship game hopes. It also means that USC may only be able to afford one more loss to have a shot at an at-large bid. This would have been a good win to have in its back pocket, as its chances of making the playoffs dropped from 69 percent to 45 percent in our model.
Utah WR Dorian Singer had seven receptions for 95 yards in the Utes’ win over Oklahoma State. (William Purnell/Imagn Images)
4. Utah took early control of the Big 12, but can it maintain that position?
Utah’s trip to Oklahoma State to open Big 12 play was always going to be a statement game for an early advantage in Big 12 play among the favorites. That lead went to Utah, which won 22-19 and held on after taking a 22-3 lead into the fourth quarter. The Utes’ defense was predictably strong, holding the Cowboys to 285 yards rushing and running back Ollie Gordon II to just 42 yards rushing.
Quarterback Cam Rising missed another game with a finger injury to his throwing hand. Receiver Dorian Singer said earlier this week that Rising would play. The betting line swung from -2.5 Utah to -2.5 Oklahoma State on Wednesday night, seemingly indicating he would not play. Rising eventually warmed up but did not play. Reserve Isaac Wilson completed 17 of 29 passes for 207 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, along with 41 rushing yards. It was enough to win, and his play has improved in recent weeks, but Utah likely needs Rising healthy if it wants to win the Big 12 and make the CFP.
Among the other Big 12 preseason favorites, Kansas is 1-3, Arizona is 2-1 and Kansas State is 3-1 after a late-night blowout loss at BYU. The Utes host Arizona next week, and three of their last four games come against BYU (4-0), Iowa State (3-0) and UCF (3-0).
5. The fifth CFP spot for the Group of 5 is completely free again
It didn’t take long for the good vibes from a few Power 4 upsets to fade. Memphis lost 56-44 at Navy, one game after beating Florida State. Northern Illinois lost in overtime to Buffalo, one game after beating Notre Dame. Toledo lost to Western Kentucky, one game after beating Mississippi State. It was a reminder that it’s tough for any G5 team to go undefeated against G5 teams with a similar talent level (or unique style, in the case of Navy).
Boise State also has one loss, to Oregon. UNLV, ranked in the coaches poll, is undefeated, and James Madison, pedestrian for two weeks, defeated North Carolina 70-50 in a stunning game. And then there’s Liberty, now 4-0 after running away late for a 35-24 win over East Carolina.
Most of the early favorites for the top G5 position have lost a game or two, leaving the battle wide open as conference play begins. But the question of whether we have the undefeated freedom hangs over everything like a dark cloud.
(Top photo of Cade Klubnik and Phil Mafah: John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
