College football Week 11 oddly specific predictions: Down, the Hoosiers!
Picking Penn State to lose to Ohio State doesn’t deserve a victory lap. Losing big games is what the Nittany Lions do.
Like James Franklin, I deserved to be booed off the field last week after posting an embarrassing 4-5 record that produced outright winners. My overall record of 59-31 for the season feels especially hollow when I’ve missed four consecutive upset warnings and fallen to 3-6 when I sounded the alarm.
We’ll discuss my hits and misses below, but first, here are this week’s picks. There are only two Top 25 matchups, but there are plenty of other intriguing games as the conference races narrow.
Most passing yards
The only prediction I made last week was that Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart would lead all FBS passers in yards. This week, the numbers scream to go with Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, one of eight quarterbacks to average more than 300 passing yards per game.
Travis Hunter went to Shedeur Sanders Podcast 🔥
Shedeur: “When I play like you, I talk crazy”
Travis: “I hate it when people say I’m not in the top 5 of Receiver top 5 at DB”
🎥: @ShedeurSanders @TravisHunterJr pic.twitter.com/08WM84u5Pq
— We’re coming 🦬 (@SkoBuffsGoBuffs) November 5, 2024
The Buffaloes are 3.5-point favorites over Texas Tech, which ranks 133rd in passing defense but is coming off its biggest win of the season at Iowa State. Joey McGuire’s team is also 7-2 in November games under his watch. Sanders will throw for over 450 yards, including 150 to Heisman hopeful Travis Hunter. But Texas Tech wins a high-scoring game after a late interception.
Most rushing yards
Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson is one of only eight running backs to average more than 120 yards rushing per game. His 19 rushing touchdowns are tied with Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson and Army’s Bryson Daily for second behind Boise State star Ashton Jeanty’s 20.
This week I’m riding with Sampson to lead all rushers in yards as he faces a Mississippi State defense that ranks 124th in the series. Seventh-placed Volunteers are 23.5-point home favorites and have won their last three games by six, seven and 10 points in a comeback. This week it will be a little easier. Sampson runs for more than 200 yards and three touchdowns on the season, and Tennessee wins by three scores.
Most receiving yards
FIU’s Eric Rivers led all receivers with 295 yards and three touchdowns in a win over New Mexico State last week. This week I’ll be working with another receiver from the same area code to rack up the most yards: Miami’s Xavier Restrepo, who became the Hurricanes’ all-time leading receiver in the come-from-behind win over Duke last week.
Fourth-ranked Miami is an 11.5-point favorite at Georgia Tech, which handed the Canes a devastating defeat last season despite Restrepo’s career-high 12 goals. Restrepo gets his revenge by connecting with Cam Ward twelve times for over 200 yards in Miami’s 10-point win at Atlanta.
Five big games
No. 3 Georgia (-2.5) at No. 16 Ole Miss
The Bulldogs have won 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Rebels, including last year’s 52-17 thrashing in Athens. Still, there are reasons why the spread is less than a field goal: Carson Beck’s eleven interceptions and Ole Miss’ ability to post a gaudy statistical line.
Dart’s 515 passing yards and six touchdowns last week against Arkansas, with a breakout performance from Jordan Watkins, give me more reason to stick with my midseason prediction. That means Georgia finishes 10-2, misses the SEC title game and still makes noise in the College Football Playoff. Give me Ole Miss with a late TD pass from Dart.
No. No. 11 Alabama (-3) at No. 15 LSU
The Crimson Tide are 29-10-2 all-time at Tiger Stadium and 3-1 against Brian Kelly at LSU. Kelly’s only win came the last time the Tide visited Baton Rouge. Both teams are coming off inactive weeks, but with different results: Alabama crushed Missouri while LSU folded late at Texas A&M.
So I’m not going against my midseason script. Alabama will beat LSU to stay on track to make the Playoff and Jalen Milroe will once again cut the Tigers to pieces with his feet like he did a year ago. This time he will run for 150 yards and two scores in a 10-point win.
Jalen Milroe highlights vs LSU 🔥pic.twitter.com/w0pPrlbAvj
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No. 9 BYU (-5) at Utah
Few imagined BYU would be the top-10 team competing for a conference championship and a Playoff berth when these two rivals met. But the Cougars deserve a lot of credit for where they are with impressive wins against two ranked teams: SMU and Kansas State.
The toughest part is trying to determine if the Utes can muster an offense after averaging just 12.5 points over their recent four-game losing streak. The guess here is that they can’t. Utah is held under 300 yards for the third time this season and BYU wins by a touchdown.
No. 17 Iowa State (-3) at Kansas
The Big 12 is feeling a little disrespected after seeing just one team in the top 16 of the CFP rankings. But Iowa State and Kansas State have no one to blame but themselves after last weekend’s staggering losses.
At the start of the season, Kansas was everyone’s dark horse to win the league, and now Lance Leipold’s team must win its final four games to qualify for a bowl. Jalon Daniels hasn’t been good enough so far and he will struggle against a solid Cyclones defense. Iowa State bounces back and keeps its CFP hopes alive with a seven-point win at Arrowhead Stadium.
No. 25 Army (-5.5) in North Texas
The Black Knights are one of five remaining undefeated FBS players, outscoring their opponents by 26.6 points per game. The problem is that six of those seven FBS wins have come against teams with losing records. North Texas is by far the Army’s toughest opponent yet. The Mean Green have the top-scoring offense in the American Athletic Conference and lost shootouts at Memphis and Tulane in their previous two games.
Army coach Jeff Monken said Daily, his starting quarterback, could be back after missing last week’s win over Air Force. I’m not sure if it matters here. North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris puts up huge numbers every week and he’ll do it again (over 350 passing yards, three touchdowns) in an upset win.
Angry alarm
Michigan at number 8 Indiana (-14.5)
Indiana’s strength in the schedule (82nd according to The Athletics‘s Austin Mock) is the reason the undefeated Hoosiers were ranked No. 8 in the first installment of the CFP rankings. They have two wins over P4 teams with winning records: Washington (5-4) and Nebraska (5-4).
You’d have to be a little crazy at this point to think that Curt Cignetti’s team doesn’t really exist, as it is beating FBS opponents by 27.8 points per game. It’s probably stupid to pick against Indiana here, as Michigan’s offense stinks. But I said midseason that the Hoosiers wouldn’t make the Playoff, and I can’t stop now. Colston Loveland is the hero.
Week 10 report card
As previously mentioned, my big win last week predicted Dart would lead all QBs in passing yards.
My choice to manage all rushers, Daily, was a late scratch from the Army’s lineup against Air Force. The Black Knights still won 20-3, as I promised. They just didn’t cover the 22.5 point spread.
Outside of picking Ohio State to win, my only other win was picking Oregon to handle its business and cover a 14.5 spread over Michigan as Dillon Gabriel threw for over 250 yards and three touchdowns. Gabriel threw for 294 yards and one touchdown, and the Ducks defeated Michigan 38-17.
And now a series of very bad predictions – and some responsibility.
I picked Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan to lead all wide receivers in a Wildcats upset over UCF. McMillan finished with six catches for 84 yards and a touchdown, and UCF destroyed Arizona 56-12.
I said Iowa State would score late on a Rocco Becht touchdown to stay undefeated against Texas Tech. Instead, Tahj Brooks scored with 20 seconds left to rob Becht of his heroics, and the Cyclones lost 23-22.
I had Clemson covering a 10.5-point spread against Louisville, with Cade Klubnik (over 250 passing yards, two touchdowns) and Phil Mafah (over 100 rushing yards, two touchdowns) working. Klubnik threw for 228 yards and a score and Mafah ran for 171 yards and two scores. But Louisville beat Clemson by 12.
I said Marcel Reed’s rushing ability would be the difference in a big road win for Texas A&M at South Carolina. The Gamecocks outscored Texas A&M 24-0 in the second half to pull off a 44-20 upset.
I said Pitt would take a path behind its opportunistic defense (three forced turnovers) at SMU. The Mustangs destroyed the Panthers 48-25.
(Photo of Kurtis Rourke: Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
