Experts say the country is currently in the relentless grip of the third wave of COVID-19 and that it will ease from the beginning of next month.
IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal, who has tracked the COVID-19 curve in the country using the SUTRA model, says India will see a peak in cases of COVID-19 infection around January 15 and the maximum number cases are likely to be reported in larger cities such as Delhi, Mumbai and Calcutta.
Currently, Delhi is reporting more than 22,000 cases per day and according to the study conducted by the IIT professor, the number of cases is set to rise to nearly 40,000 cases per day at its peak, which is expected to hit in mid-January.
About when the cases will decrease, Professor Agrawal says: “We expect the drop to be just as strong and if the peak hits in January, then the wave will be over by mid-March.” His study disagrees that election rallies are a super spreader of the virus. “If you just look at election rallies as a cause for the spread, that’s wrong. A lot of things called the spread and election rallies are just one of them. And if you believe that by just stopping election rallies, the spreading that is not correct,” he told ANI news agency.
A study on the rise in COVID-19 conducted by researchers at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) and the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) has confirmed Professor Agrawal’s study, which sheds light on the peak and fall of COVID. According to reports, the IISc and ISI researchers claim that the current spike in Covid-19 cases across the country will begin to subside next month, although it will vary from state to state. They have also said that the current curve of COVID cases will flatten out in March or April and during the peak, the country will see more than 8 lakh daily cases.
On the hospital requirements, which had wreaked havoc during the second wave, these researchers have said that in the worst-case scenario, only if 100% of the country’s total population is susceptible to COVID, the hospital need could reach up to 4 lakh per day and the ICU requirement can exceed 20,000.
About the unavoidable harshness of the third wave, Himanshu Sikka told media: “There is mounting evidence of ommicron-based community transmission. In the coming weeks, we could see the number rise dramatically and potentially reach a million positive cases per day. reach by the end of the month.” He is affiliated with IPE global, an international healthcare development consultancy.
“A third wave is imminent, but the combination of past exposure, rising vaccination rates and low reported severity of ommicron infections should hopefully result in a more muted problem than we saw during the second wave. I see no reason why an Ommicron -driven wave in India would be more dangerous than in other countries,” Professor Ramanan Laxminarayan, director of the Washington-based Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy told media.
On the hospital front, India is reportedly better equipped and prepared than it was during the second wave.
Many other experts have also focused on the decline in the number of COVID cases from February and a sharp peak around mid-January.
To contain the spread of the coronavirus, state governments in the country have imposed restrictions on the movement of people on weekends and holidays.
India reported 2.47.417 new COVID cases on Thursday, the highest since May. The country’s Omicron number now stands at 5,488.