Could the asteroid Apophis, the “God of Chaos,” pose a threat to Earth in 2029?
There is a small chance that the massive asteroid Apophis, known as the “God of Chaos,” will hit Earth when it makes an extremely close pass in 2029. Named after the Egyptian god of darkness, Apophis is about 340 meters (1,100 feet) wide, similar in size to the Eiffel Tower. While previous studies have ruled out a direct impact during the flyby, recent research suggests that a collision, while highly unlikely, cannot yet be completely ruled out.
A very close flyby
Apophis is expected to pass Earth on April 13, 2029, at a distance of about 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers). That’s closer than some of our orbiting satellites. Early observations raised fears of a collision, but astronomers later confirmed that it would miss us by a small margin. Despite this, Apophis’ proximity still raises concerns, particularly about the possibility that its orbit could be altered by an outside force, such as another asteroid.
Can Apophis be knocked off course?
The idea that Apophis could be on a collision course with Earth stems from studies showing that asteroids can change course when hit by smaller objects. NASA’s DART mission, which successfully changed the course of the asteroid Dimorphos in 2022, showed that this scenario is plausible. If Apophis were to be hit by a smaller asteroid in the coming years, its path could move closer to Earth.
New research suggests small risk
A recent study led by Paul Wiegert, an astronomer at Western University, analyzed the likelihood of such an event. According to Wiegert’s findings, the chance that an unknown asteroid will hit Apophis and push it toward Earth is less than one in a billion. However, scientists won’t be able to completely rule out the possibility until they can observe Apophis again in 2027, when it will come back into view after passing too close to the sun.
Future Encounters with Apophis
Even if Apophis changes course, it’s not certain it will come closer to Earth. The space rock has passed our planet before and will continue to do so in the future, with significant flybys expected in 2051, 2066, and 2080. However, current models suggest there will be no significant threat to Earth for at least the next 100 years.
