Devil’s Advocate: Why the Yankees’ pursuit of Juan Soto shouldn’t go all the way

Grab a rotten tomato. Raise your fist and prepare to shake it. Add honey to your tea, clear your throat and prepare for a Bronx cheer.

Because while New York Yankees fans would love to spend owner Hal Steinbrenner’s money to sign Juan Soto, there are Are reasons why teams should pause before giving him half a billion dollars. Actually there are a few.

Look, we’re not saying that re-signing the star slugger shouldn’t be the Yankees’ top priority. In fact, we believe he should get some kind of record-breaking free agent contract. The $611 million, thirteen-year deal is projected by The Athletics‘s Tim Britton seemed more than reasonable for Soto, who possesses a rare blend of youth at 26 and generational left-handed talent. Plus, he’s a box office draw rivaled only by Aaron Judge, perhaps destined for the Hall of Fame and a plaque in Monument Park.

But of course, what’s reasonable in free agency means you’re looking at the best talent from the outside. Soto does not offer a Black Friday discount.

So the bidding is sure to boggle the mind and yes, the Yankees should be on that as well. But it’s not ridiculous to think that there’s a certain point where buyer’s remorse can kick in.

Perhaps Judge said it best after receiving his 2024 American League MVP Award on Friday.

“It’s not my money,” he said. “It doesn’t really matter to me.”

And that should be the opinion of Yankees fans too. They just watched the Yankees make their first World Series since 2009. The biggest difference in the season? Soto hits ahead of the judge.

But listen to us.

What if there were holes in the game of a player who is about to make half a billion dollars?

He’s not a great defender

Heading into 2024, the expectation was that the Yankees would shift Soto — considered a below-average defenseman — from left field, where he played with the San Diego Padres, to right field. That was because, theoretically, right field at Yankee Stadium — with its short porch and relatively less ground to cover — would be much easier for Soto. And it probably was.

On May 21 The Athletics published a story detailing how Soto had improved his glove game. Third base coach and outfield coordinator Luis Rojas raved about how much time and effort Soto put into defense and learning the nuances of a different position. According to Baseball Savant, Soto had held his own defensively at the time, posting zero zeros above average in 48 games.

“I think he showed up here with a goal,” Rojas said at the time, “I just wondered why he was below average defensively in some categories.”

And then Soto’s defense began to falter. He started to look uncomfortable as he did some reading. On some plays he appeared slightly out of position or unable to make up the ground needed to make a catch. His throws remained mostly fine.

“He’s a danger out there. It makes you wonder why they want to play him in the deepest corner position on this pitch. Yankee Stadium, yes. But that’s a catch. It needs to be caught.”

Keith Hernandez on a Juan Soto misplay. pic.twitter.com/YXu1r5N8lD

— Terrible announcement (@awfulannouncing) June 27, 2024

Soto finished the season with minus-5 OAA – the sixth-worst mark among 42 qualified right fielders. On balls hit to his right, he was worth minus-2 OAA. Despite often playing deep right field at home, he was worth minus-3 OAA returning on balls, which tied for worst with Adolis Garcia of the Texas Rangers among those who qualified at his position. Baseball Savant’s field run value was friendlier to Soto, putting him at minus-1, seventh-best among right fielders.

A jury plan for the long term

It made sense to move Judge to center field for the 2024 season. Soto had to play right field and Judge had a lot of experience in center. Additionally, left field at Yankee Stadium is arguably more difficult than center due to the sheer amount of ground that must be covered compared to other ballparks.

If you ask the evaluators, Judge passes the eye test in center field with solid routes, sure hands and an above-average arm. He didn’t always cover a lot of ground and he was careful not to hurt himself – a smart move considering his importance to the lineup.

However, advanced statistics did not paint a good picture of Judge in midfield. His play was worth minus-6 OAA, No. 40 and second-worst among qualified center fielders, behind only Heliot Ramos of the San Francisco Giants.

Judge will play most of next season at age 33. How many more years could he play in center field, in deference to Soto in right field? How long before he might be asking for offseason tips at first base or spending more time at designated hitter?

Soto is not a great base runner

When Soto hits 41 career home runs – as he did in 2024 – his ability to run the bases becomes an afterthought. But the Yankees were the game’s worst team on base, posting FanGraphs’ lowest base runs numbers above average. Every little bit helps.

Soto didn’t help much. According to Baseball Savant, he was the Yankees’ seventh-best baserunner, good for minus-2 runner runs. That was tied with the leading Anthony Rizzo.

A deal breaker? Of course not. But to steal a line from manager Aaron Boone, it’s baked into the cake.

The salary plans

No one (except maybe Scott Boras) knows exactly how much money it will cost to sign Soto. But it will eat up a significant amount of pay for the lucky sweepstakes winner. Fortunately for the Yankees, the most money-making team in sports, that should be less of an issue than anyone else.

Last season, Soto set an arbitration record of $31 million in a single season. That accounted for 9.8 percent of the Yankees’ luxury tax revenue, which was $314.8 million, according to Cot’s Contracts. By comparison, Judge’s $40 million took up 12.7 percent of the payroll and Gerrit Cole’s $36 million accounted for 11.4 percent.

Last week, owner Hal Steinbrenner spoke at the MLB owners meetings in Manhattan, and while he didn’t mention a specific budget he set for general manager Brian Cashman, he called that kind of payroll “not sustainable” year after year. So it might be wise to expect some sort of overall cost-cutting from the Yankees.

If the Yankees sign Soto, where could they try to cut spending with such a top-heavy salary? They have questions at third base, second base, first base and left field, along with the starting rotation and bullpen. Would a prospect like Caleb Durbin become the likely starter at second base? Would they consider putting Oswaldo Cabrera and Ben Rice at first base? Would Jasson Domínguez get the full-time job in left field?

Simply put, no one is saying the Yankees shouldn’t sign Soto. Perhaps Steinbrenner should have Soto write the desired number on the check so that Steinbrenner can immediately sign it and give it back to him.

And while there would be more questions and concerns about the Yankees if they don’t sign Soto than if they did, there would still be concerns.

So please put down that rotten tomato.

(Photo: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)