Do the Chiefs have a Travis Kelce problem? The answer may surprise you
KANSAS CITY, Mo. – No, the Kansas City Chiefs don’t have a Travis Kelce problem.
Three weeks into the NFL season, more and more people — fans, analysts and even former players — have jumped to the pretty quick conclusion that Kelce, the Chiefs star and future Hall of Famer, has been wiped out. A has-been. An NFL legend deep in the twilight of his career, a player the Chiefs can no longer rely on for crucial highlights like they used to, even as the franchise pursues an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl victory.
The argument is simple: just look at Kelce’s stats. Through three games, Kelce’s production was lower than anyone expected: eight receptions on just twelve targets for 69 yards and no touchdowns. Not great.
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Plus, for the first time this season, Kelce didn’t look like his usual gregarious, jovial self during Sunday night’s game against the Atlanta Falcons. NBC cameras captured Kelce, who turns 35 next week, sitting on the couch just before halftime with a dejected, withdrawn expression. Sometimes, even after certain plays, he seemed a little disinterested.
Cris Collinsworth, NBC’s game analyst and former NFL wide receiver, struggled to figure out why Kelce was struggling.
“I’m just stunned,” Collinsworth said before half-time. “I mean, one game, a big problem. Two games, okay. This is now the third game where we haven’t seen the magic of (quarterback Patrick) Mahomes and Kelce, and I can’t really explain it.
the face of everyone who drafted Travis Kelce in fantasy pic.twitter.com/Ebl9FwMZhN
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) September 23, 2024
The truth, if you watch the movie out of 22 movies, is that Kelce is opening up. Actually, a little bit. More than you think – or what you can see on TV.
As a route runner, Kelce has created an average of 3.5 yards, which ranks him 13th among tight ends according to Next Gen Stats. Another star player has an average distance of 3.6 meters this season. That player is Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who has produced 14 receptions on 21 targets for 273 yards and three touchdowns.
So why are Kelce’s stats so bad?
“Can’t we say he’s out of shape, that he’s already partying in the off-season?” NFL analyst Todd McShay said Monday on “The Ryen Russillo Podcast.” McShay continued: “He’s been jet-setting with probably the most famous person (Taylor Swift) in the world, drinking, going to the US Open and having cocktails.
“He’s one of the best to ever do it. … He’s not in the same shape. He’s not the same. I don’t see the same explosiveness. I see it’s a little worn.”
McShay is wrong. While his offseason travel schedule was packed — filming national commercials, guest starring on the new FX series “Grotesquerie” and flying to Europe several times to attend Swift’s concerts — Kelce was diligent about training, even though his routine was different . Wherever Kelce was, one of his three personal trainers – Alex Skacel, Andrew Spruill and Laurence Justin Ng – was with him. Since the Chiefs started training camp in mid-July, Kelce hasn’t missed a practice. He’s healthy and has been on the field a lot, playing 85 percent of the Chiefs’ offensive plays (164 of 193).
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Let’s present another theory, this one from Rodney Harrison, an NBC analyst and former NFL safety.
“He’s busy, he’s got a lot on his plate,” Harrison said of Kelce during Sunday’s postgame show. “But when you’re in a situation like that, you have to forget everything else and concentrate 100 percent on football. That’s the main responsibility. … He’s still a good player, but I don’t believe he’s a great, great player is.
How can we forget that earlier this year, in January and February, Kelce had one of the best postseasons for a tight end in NFL history?
In the Chiefs’ four-game postseason run, Kelce had 32 receptions for 355 yards and three touchdowns to help the team become back-to-back champions. In Super Bowl LVIII, Kelce reached a top speed of 19.68 mph, according to Next Gen Stats, on a 22-yard reception against man-to-man coverage from All-Pro 49ers linebacker Fred Warner to break up the Chiefs’ play. to make. field goal. It was Kelce’s fastest speed as a ball carrier in seven seasons.
Who else but Kelce with 9 seconds left?!
📺: #SBLVIII on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ZJ0MZAnk7f—NFL (@NFL) February 12, 2024
Kelce declined to speak to reporters after Sunday’s game, but Mahomes did his best to explain what his teammate is experiencing on the field.
“It’s crazy because the respect factor (opposing defenses) for Travis is just unreal,” Mahomes said. “It’s well deserved, but we call up Travis a lot, and it’s like two or three people go to him. He understands. That’s the great thing about him. He wants to make an impact on the game, but he wants to win.”
Mahomes is right, to an extent. At no point in Sunday’s game did the Falcons deploy three defensemen to guard Kelce.
In fact, the Falcons didn’t double Kelce much, instead playing zone coverage to keep Mahomes from making deep passes. The Falcons’ strategy was understandable. Mahomes did not complete a single pass with the ball traveling more than twenty yards in the air along the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs counterattacked with 27 designed running plays, 13 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage and a number of plays using Kelce as a decoy.
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Coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy aren’t calling as many plays as they used to, with Kelce appearing to be Mahomes’ primary option. That role has been handed to receiver Rashee Rice, a rising second-year player who has developed into the Chiefs’ No. 1 receiver. Against the Falcons, Rice led the Chiefs with 12 receptions on 14 targets for 110 yards and a touchdown, many of his routes the type Kelce has run against zone coverage.
“I know people say he’s old or distracted, but the defense doesn’t think that,” Reid said Wednesday. “We have another receiver (Rice) who plays the opposite of (Kelce), who has a lot of yards and catches. That’s how this thing goes. Travis is doing well. He’s still just Travis. He’s working his tail off and he hasn’t lost a step. He doesn’t get distracted.”
When Rice scored his 13-yard touchdown, the Falcons played man coverage with a single safety in the middle of the field. Mahomes elected to throw the ball to Rice over Kelce, who was in a one-on-one matchup against cornerback AJ Terrell. Earlier in the first half, Kelce beat safety Jessie Bates III on a corner route, creating enough separation to be wide open for a reception in the middle part of the field. Mahomes threw the ball to Rice for a six-yard gain, and Kelce threw up his hands in frustration. When the Chiefs scored their final touchdown against the Falcons, Kelce was open against Terrell for a 9-yard gain that would have given the Chiefs a first down. Instead, Mahomes connected with receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who ran a crossing route for a 13-yard score.
A JuJu Smith-Schuster TOUCHDOWN extends the Chiefs lead! #ChiefsKingdom
📺 NBC and Peacock (🎥 NFL)pic.twitter.com/QryluklUJ4
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) September 23, 2024
“With the way the defenses are playing us right now, I’m not really getting a lot of opportunities to make plays on the field, but I’m not using that as an excuse,” Kelce said on Wednesday’s episode of his “New Heights” podcast. “I’m going to moving on and still trying to make sure I help the team in that regard, knowing that I’ve been that weapon for us in the past.
“I’ve had a lot of catches in this league, man. I don’t worry about the catches and the yards and all that. I have the most fun when the ball is thrown my way. Who doesn’t? It’s all about execution, just making sure we do what we can to win these football games, man. That will always be the goal.”
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One of the best parts of the sport is that each skill position player depends on 10 teammates to achieve individual success. Too often this season, Kelce’s contributions have been thwarted by one of his teammates.
Kelce’s best moment in Week 2 against the Bengals — a 41-yard reception in the fourth quarter — was negated by a holding penalty committed by rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia, who tried to block defensive end Trey Hendrickson. Kelce was wide open in the back of the end zone when Mahomes threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to left tackle Wanya Morris. Even when Reid and Nagy called a play for Kelce at the goal line, a backward pass to set a screen, he failed to reach the end zone as he ran into right guard Trey Smith before reaching the goal line.
Mahomes to Kelce is BACK.
📺: #Kickoff2024 on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/TAQh9ASVMV—NFL (@NFL) September 6, 2024
The easiest way for Kelce to be more productive starting Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers is for Mahomes to play better and for Reid and Nagy to involve him more in their play-calling, especially in the red zone.
Despite the left tackle being a bit of a liability, Mahomes needs to get into creation mode more often, using his elusiveness to extend plays to outwit the opponent’s zone coverage. When Mahomes scrambles out of the pocket, he usually finds Kelce wide open in the middle of the field. It happened in the season opener when Mahomes converted a potential sack into a gain of 23 yards.
“I’m going to do my best to keep getting him the ball when he’s open,” Mahomes said of Kelce on Sunday. “But I think the more Rashee plays, the better we can control the ball, the more we can get (rookie receiver Xavier) Worthy involved, that will open up Travis more.”
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The Chiefs would be wise not to overuse Kelce and protect him as much as possible for another postseason run. They have also won three games and scored 75 points, the second most in the AFC.
Kelce isn’t the Chiefs’ problem. But for anyone concerned about his production, the solution is for almost everyone else on the offense, except Rice and a few linemen, to take their performance to the next level. If and when that happens, expect to see the Kelce of old.
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletics; photo: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)
