Dodgers vs. Mets 2024 NLCS preview: predictions, pitching matchups and more

By Fabian Ardaya, Tim Britton, Will Sammon and Eno Sarris

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets both eliminated division rivals in the NLDS to keep their postseason hopes alive and reach the NLCS. The Dodgers overcame a 2-1 series deficit against the Padres and stormed back to beat San Diego in a decisive Game 5. The Mets took care of the Phillies in four, with Francisco Lindor slamming the door on Philadelphia and giving New York the top spot. playoff series win at Citi Field.

This marks the fourth time these teams have faced off in the postseason, with the Mets prevailing in the 2015 NLDS and the 2006 NLDS and the Dodgers winning the 1988 NLCS. This best-of-seven NLCS kicks off Sunday in LA, with the winner advancing to the World Series and facing the New York Yankees or the last team standing from yet another intra-division ALDS, the Cleveland Guardians or Detroit Tigers .

Play times

Game 1: Mets at Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 13, 8:15 p.m. ET, Fox

Game 2: Mets at Dodgers, Monday, October 14, 4:08 PM ET, Fox/FS1

Game 3: Dodgers at Mets, Wednesday, October 16, 8:08 PM ET, FS1

Game 4: Dodgers at Mets, Thursday, October 17, time TBA, FS1

Game 5: Dodgers at Mets, Friday, Oct. 18, time TBA, Fox/FS1 (if necessary)

Game 6: Mets at Dodgers, Sunday, Oct. 20, time TBA, Fox/FS1 (if necessary)

Game 7: Mets at Dodgers, Monday, Oct. 21, time TBD, Fox/FS1 (if necessary)

Pitching matchups

The Dodgers’ staff should be deeper than the Mets, and probably better. If Yoshinobu Yamamoto hits 90 miles per hour and looks as sharp as he did in Game 5 of the Divisional Series, it gives the Dodgers an ace to throw against everyone else. Jack Flaherty is a good No. 2 and equal to any starter New York will throw there. And if the Mets have a better third starter, the Dodgers’ bullpen depth should help them close that gap. The Dodgers had as many as 15 relievers see action above-average stuff in the regular seasonand they showed that depth in October. Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Daniel Hudson and Michael Kopech have a combined zero in the postseason. And if Vesia gets injured, the Dodgers have other pitchers who can step up.

But anything can happen in the playoffs. After all, Philadelphia probably had a better staff than the Mets, and yet it was the Phillies who imploded – pitching to a 5.82 ERA in the NLDS, while the Mets got 18 four-run innings from Sean Manaea’s trio. Luis Severino and Jose Quintana. Those starters mixed it up well and drew their inspiration from tragedy or whimsy. With Kodai Senga back in the fold – even if a few of his pitches are moving strangely and his velocity is a little slower – this could be a “just enough” kind of rotation.

It just feels like a high-wire act for New York — with all that below-average speed from the starters, and a bullpen that somehow has an ERA around 4 despite a 12 percent walk rate and a below-average strikeout-minus-walk rate. No pitcher better illustrates how shaky yet successful this bullpen has been in the postseason than the Mets’ closer. Edwin Díaz has shot a save, has a postseason ERA above 8 and has walked five in 3 1/3 innings, but he also has seven strikeouts, a save and a win. Just enough from this staff is four innings from the starter, good bridge work from previous starters David Peterson and Tylor Megill, and a version of Díaz that somehow finds his command lacking. Maybe a few days off will help, given his heavy use.

The Dodgers simply have fewer questions in the bullpen. That’s mainly what gives them the advantage in this pitching contest. — Sarris

Why the Dodgers will win

They may be the most talented team left in the tournament, along with the hottest bullpen. Mookie Betts’ bat came to life. The Dodgers’ lineup has shown depth and length, with Kiké Hernández once again emerging as a top prospect in their NLDS win in October. They still employ Shohei Ohtani.

And believe it or not, the strength of their bullpen could ensure they have enough pitching to make the rest of the puzzle pieces work. Dodgers pitchers held the Padres to 24 consecutive scoreless innings to end the streak, the longest consecutive stretch in the franchise’s postseason history. Yamamoto was excellent in the series finale and could get back to work for the Dodgers as soon as Game 4 of the NLCS. Flaherty is lined up to pitch Game 1. And their bullpen could likely reverse the bullpen play it successfully executed in Game 4 of the NLDS. – Ardaya

Why the Mets will win

Well, there’s that whole ‘Mets Magic’ thing going on. You know, the fast food mascot, the “playoff pumpkin” and the catchy pop song. If that isn’t enough, the Mets have long since proven that they are a pretty good baseball team.

The Mets’ lineup has shown the kind of versatility that often comes in handy in October. They can string hits together for a big inning late in games and they also have the ability to overwhelm pitching staffs with their power. The Mets defense is as crisp as it has been all year. And their starting rotation continues to be surprisingly impressive – more often than not in the playoffs, a Mets starter has thrown at least six innings. As long as the rotation continues deep into games, their bullpen becomes less of a concern.

The Mets don’t have a dominant bridge to Díaz, who has also looked shaky. But Senga’s return allows the Mets to be creative elsewhere. He’s still limited, but should be able to give the Mets more than the two innings he pitched in Game 1 against the Phillies. Senga’s presence allows the Mets to use Megill, a right-hander, and Peterson, a left-hander, out of the bullpen in bulk or leverage roles. — Britton and Sammon

Check back later for series predictions from The Athletics‘s MLB staff.

His status will be as much of a question in the NLCS as it was during the NLDS. Freeman took 14 at-bats and started four of the five games in the series, but he is dealing with an ankle injury that would normally keep him out for a month. Freeman said during Friday’s celebration that he expects to be in the lineup for Game 1 of the NLCS, but even that would likely come with a compromise in terms of his mobility and ability to potentially play in consecutive games. – Ardaya

But seriously, who else could it be? Lindor has been the central figure in the Mets’ entire turnaround. He provided the impetus with his offensive production in late May and pushed him further with his all-around brilliance late in the season. His heroics to clinch a playoff berth and now lift the Mets to the NLCS have likely made this the best individual season by a position player in team history. He can win a game in so many ways, and he has shown that all season. — Britton and Sammon

Story of the tape

Dodgers is a must read

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Freddie Freeman is starting the next chapter after his toughest season

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Shohei Ohtani delivers a ridiculous performance: ‘Makes you speechless’

Mets must reads

Francisco Lindor’s swing of a lifetime takes the Mets to the NLCS

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Pete Alonso delivers heroic homer after teammate makes the shot

In an instant classic, the Mets clinched a spot in the playoffs with a win over the Braves

Inside the Mets’ revival: Grimace, OMG and a turnaround no one saw coming

(Top image: Pete Alonso: Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images; Mookie Betts: Harry How/Getty Images)