Early MLB Award Predictions for MVP, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and More
We’re into the final week and a half of the regular season, and while we’re still two months away from awards season, we’ve seen enough to at least determine the frontrunners for MLB’s top individual honors, which are handed out in November following the World Series. So let’s have a little fun and take a look at the competition for the major awards.
If the season ended today, I think these are the people who would take home the top prizes. Let me know in the comments what I got right, what I got wrong, and why.
(WAR figures are based on Baseball Reference as of September 19.)
American League Most Valuable Player
1. Aaron Judge, CF, Yankees (9.8 WAR)
2. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals (9.2 WAR)
3. Juan Soto, RF, Yankees (7.7 WAR)
Judge leads the AL in home runs (53), RBIs (136), walks (124), on-base percentage (.455), slugging percentage (.689) and OPS+ (218). The six-time All-Star has also played solid defense in center field. He should win his second MVP Award in November. He’s coming off another historic season, leading the team with the league’s best record. Witt deserves serious consideration, as he ranks first in the AL in batting average (.331), first in runs scored (124), fifth in OBP (.387) and second in slugging percentage (.598). He’s hit 32 homers and stolen 30 bases for his second straight 30-30 season, and he’s played as a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, but it won’t be enough to beat Judge in the voting. Soto finishes behind Judge and Witt, but his strong season should allow him to secure a contract worth more than $600 million through free agency.
National League MVP
Shohei Ohtani nears first 50-50 season. (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images)
1. Shohei Ohtani, DH, Dodgers (7.3 WAR)
2. Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets (6.6 WAR)
3. Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks (5.7 WAR)
4. Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies (4.4 WAR)
Ohtani will soon become the first player in Major League history to hit 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season, as well as the first designated hitter to win the MVP Award. Ohtani leads the NL in home runs (48), RBIs (110), runs (119), slugging percentage (.607), OPS (.978) and total bases (360). The four-time All-Star is also on track to win his third MVP Award, having won the AL honor in 2021 and 2023 with the Angels. The voting is expected to be close, however, as Lindor had an MVP-caliber season, hitting .271 with 31 home runs and 27 stolen bases while playing stellar defense at shortstop. Marte and Harper should also be in contention.
AL Cy Jong
1. Tarik Skubal, left-handed pitcher, Tigers (6.0 WAR)
2. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Guardians (4.3 WAR)
3. Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals (4.7 WAR)
After his first spring training as Tigers manager in 2021, AJ Hinch told me he thought Skubal, then 24 with just seven starts in his major-league career, would one day win a Cy Young Award — and that day is almost here. Skubal is 17-4 with a league-leading 2.48 ERA and a majors-leading 221 strikeouts in 185 innings. He ranks in the 100th percentile in Statcast’s pitching run value. Opponents have hit .203 against his four-seamer, .223 against his changeup, .210 against his sinker, .173 against his slider and .167 against his knuckle curve. Clase does get some votes after posting 46 saves in 49 chances and notable stats like a 0.64 ERA and 0.649 WHIP, but he instead wins the award for best AL reliever (see below).
NL Cy Jong
1. Chris Sale, left-handed pitcher, Braves (6.3 WAR)
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Phillies (5.5 WAR)
3. Michael King, RHP, Padres (3.9 WAR)
This has been a race between Sale and Wheeler all season, but Sale pulled away in the second half when he went 4-0 with a 1.72 ERA and one home run allowed in 62 2/3 innings. Overall, he leads the NL in wins (17), ERA (2.35), strikeouts (219), FIP (2.02) and ERA+ (177). He is averaging a league-leading 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings and is walking 1.9 per nine. He ranks in the 100th percentile in both pitching run value and breaking run value. The eight-time All-Star deserves to win his first Cy Young Award. Wheeler has had another great season, going 16-6 with a 2.56 ERA and a league-leading 0.954 WHIP in 30 starts. He struck out 205 batters in 186 2/3 innings and was dominant in the latter stages of his career, allowing two runs or fewer in his last nine starts.
AL Rookie of the Year
Austin Wells or Luis Gil could become the first Yankee to win the Rookie of the Year award since Aaron Judge in 2017. (Brad Penner/Imagn Images)
1. Austin Wells, C, Yankees (2.9 WAR)
2. Luis Gil, RHP, Yankees (3.6 WAR)
3. Colton Cowser, outside, Orioles (2.4 WAR)
4. Mason Miller, RHP, A’s (2.5 WAR)
Wells is the league’s top rookie position player, batting .244 with 13 home runs and a 112 OPS+. He’s been the Yankees’ cleanup hitter for most of the season, with a star on both sides of the ball. Defensively, he ranks in the 96th percentile in fielding run value and is an elite pitch framer, ranking in the 97th percentile among catchers. Wells’ closest competition for the award is teammate Gil, who has gone 14-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 161 strikeouts over 140 2/3 innings (27 starts). As I’ve said many times over the years, there should be both a rookie pitcher and a rookie position player award, and if there were, the Yankees would have a clean sweep this year. Cowser and Miller also deserve consideration for this year’s ROY award.
NL Rookie of the Year
1. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pirates (5.5 WAR)
2. Jackson Merrill, CF, Padres (4.0 WAR)
3. Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers (3.9 WAR)
Skenes should win this race over Merrill and Chourio, but again, we need two awards: one for rookie pitchers and one for rookie position players. Skenes deserves this year’s award, however, having gone 10-3 with a 2.07 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 126 innings (21 starts). He also started the All-Star Game for the National League. Merrill deserves serious consideration, as he has hit 24 home runs, stolen 16 bases, registered a 127 OPS+ and excelled in center field, a position he only started playing this year. Chourio also deserves serious consideration, as he has hit 21 home runs, stolen 20 bases, posted a 121 OPS+ and played above-average defense. He’s hit .312/.370/.591 with 12 homers in the second half, which has really helped him close the gap on both Skenes and Merrill.
Mariano Rivera Award (AL Reliever of the Year)
Emmanuel Clase leads the majors with 46 saves. (Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)
1. Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Guardians (4.3 WAR)
2. Kirby Yates, RHP, Rangers (3.1 WAR)
Clase is having a historic season, posting 46 saves with a 0.65 ERA and .640 WHIP. He’s filled the strike zone and consistently moved up in the count, striking out 64 batters against eight walks in 70 1/3 innings. He ranks in the 99th percentile in both pitching run value and fastball run value. Opponents are hitting .153 against his cutter, which he delivers at 99-100 mph, and .136 against his wipeout slider. Yates deserves a mention for his 1.23 ERA, .852 WHIP and 83 strikeouts in 58 2/3 innings.
Trevor Hoffman Award (NL Reliever of the Year)
1. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Braves (2.7 WAR)
2. Ryan Helsley, RHP, Cardinals (2.8 WAR)
This is shaping up to be one of the most exciting awards races, as Iglesias has 31 saves with a 1.87 ERA and ranks in the 95th percentile in pitching run value, while Helsley has 45 saves with a 2.15 ERA and ranks in the 92nd percentile in pitching run value. I’m going with Iglesias, but with a snap of my fingers.
AL Comeback Player of the Year
Tyler O’Neill leads the Red Sox with 31 home runs. (David Butler II/Imagn Images)
Tyler O’Neill, OF, Red Sox (2.7 WAR)
O’Neill was coming off two mediocre seasons in St. Louis — he hit .228 with 14 homers in 96 games in 2022 and .231 with nine homers in 72 games in 2023 — but he made a strong comeback this year in Boston despite some injuries. He slashed .249/.343/.532 with 18 doubles, 31 homers and 61 RBIs in 107 games, his best season since 2021, when he finished eighth in NL MVP voting.
NL Comeback Player of the Year
Chris Sale, left-handed pitcher, Braves (6.3 WAR)
Sale hasn’t been healthy enough to throw more than 103 innings in a season since 2019, but he’s given the Braves more than 170 innings this year — a Cy Young-winning level. It’s hard to imagine him not winning the NL Comeback Player of the Year award, too. The Dodgers’ Jack Flaherty deserves a mention after his impressive season, but being traded at the trade deadline makes it difficult for him to win the award in either league.
AL Manager of the Year
1. Matt Quatraro, Kings
2. Stephen Vogt, Guardians
3. AJ Hinch, Tigers
The Manager of the Year Award is not given to the best manager in each league; more often, it goes to the manager whose team performed the best or improved the most from the previous year. Quatraro should win the AL award after leading a team that went 56-106 last year to the brink of a playoff spot this year. His bullpen management, lineup juggling and emphasis on putting the ball in play and “moving the chains” have helped make this season a big success in Kansas City. He has great leadership and communication skills and is highly respected by the players and the front office. The Royals’ lineup ranks third in the AL in runs scored and last in strikeouts, and their pitching staff ranks sixth in ERA. Stephen Vogt deserves serious consideration as he did a fantastic job replacing future Hall of Famer Terry Francona in Cleveland, showing a special leadership style with his players in leading the Guardians to a (likely) division title.
NL Manager of the Year
1. Pat Murphy, Brewers
2. Carlos Mendoza, Mets
3. Mike Shildt, Padres
Former Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns left for the Mets, manager Craig Counsell left for the rival Cubs, Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles and Brandon Woodruff was sidelined for a year after shoulder surgery … and yet the Brewers still finished first in the NL Central under Murphy, whose leadership had a lot to do with it. The Brewers are third in the NL in runs scored despite a young lineup and second in team ERA.
(Top image: Chris Sale: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images; Aaron Judge: Luke Hales/Getty Images; Paul Skenes: Gene Wang/Getty Images)
