Wall St. forecasts a rosy 6 months. Corporate America isn’t so sure.

Despite investor bullishness, companies appear to be more vigilant about the potential for a slump in the economy. a overview of optimism among small businesses was higher in May, but remains close to the lowest level of the past decade. a similar research of Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia manufacturing firms also rose higher recently, but remains sharply lower than two years ago.

Company leaders have adopted more conservative management strategies, moving away from tactics to boost their share prices, such as buying back their own shares or paying large dividends.

Nevertheless, among the small number of companies that have already reported earnings, the trend has been against them. Jeffrey Harmening, General Mills’ chairman and CEO, said on the company’s earnings call Thursday that it was starting to see a slowdown in sales, “as consumers are feeling inflation.”

FedEx, a gauge of the economy, reported lower volumes across all of its businesses. “We’re all looking at the consumer,” noted Brie A. Carere, the company’s chief customer officer.

Policymakers trying to bring about a gentle slowdown in the economy will welcome some weakness. But if their efforts falter, earnings could fall faster, leading to layoffs, higher unemployment and the start of a more serious downturn.

“We know that the labor market is normally the last shoe to fall,” said Roger Aliaga-Díaz, chief economist for the Americas at Vanguard. “Once you see the labor market weakening, you are already there.”

One of Wall Street’s most talked about recession indicators compares short-term government bond yields to longer-term government bond yields. Typically, investors need more interest to lend to the government for longer. When that relationship — known as the “yield curve” — reverses, as it did last year, a recession usually follows.

Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, said she hoped that wouldn’t happen, “but it seems like a lot to ask.”