Euro 2024 and the lopsided draw that will affect which teams are considered likely finalists
There’s a reason: as obscenities and plastic cups were hurled at Gareth Southgate and his players in Cologne on Tuesday, every leading British bookmaker lowered the odds of England winning the 2024 European Championship.
It had nothing to do with a sudden surge of optimism or a flurry of betting. After all, who would put money on an English triumph?
It was the way the tournament started to take shape: England’s odds were reduced, as were Italy, Austria and Switzerland. The chances of French, Spanish, German or Portuguese glory declined accordingly.
If there was a free draw after the group stages, as in European club competitions, it would be difficult to look beyond Spain, Germany, Portugal and – as poorly as they have played so far – favorites France for the tournament.
But the path had already been determined. The knockout pool looked unbalanced before a ball was kicked. Things have been further unbalanced by France’s failure to win their group, meaning they join Spain, Germany, Portugal and Denmark in the top half of the pool. Belgium, after finishing second in Group E, also ended up there.
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On paper, the bottom quarter of the group looks fairly strong: Switzerland will play Italy in Berlin on Saturday and England, finalists in 2021, will play on Sunday. But Switzerland, Italy and England each won one match in the group stage. Add Slovakia, who finished third in Group E, and it becomes four wins out of a possible 12.
To explain this, in the bottom quarter of the draw, a team that has won just once in the group stage will reach the semi-finals — where the worst-case scenario would see them face Austria, Belgium or the Netherlands. The most likely semi-final permutations in the other half of the draw could be Spain or Germany vs Portugal or France.
Southgate was told on Tuesday, after a dreadful 0-0 draw with Slovenia, that England may have been lucky with the way the knockout stages are shaping up. “We can’t be tempted by which half of the draw,” the manager told ITV Sport. “We have to take it step by step. Tonight was an improvement. We have to improve to win the next round.”
At his post-match press conference it was made clear to him that England had ended up at the opposite end of the match from Germany, France, Spain and Portugal. “We have enormous respect for all the teams you have mentioned, but there are also some very good teams on our side of the draw,” he said.
Not equal, though. As in the 2018 World Cup, fortune smiles on England and all the other teams who end up on that side of the table – not least Austria, who have the right to claim that, by finishing ahead of France and the Netherlands, they made their own luck.
In 2018, five of the six highest ranked teams in the knockout stages (Brazil, Belgium, Portugal, Argentina and France) finished on one side of the draw, while the other half consisted of Spain (who had won only one of their matches ). three group matches), Russia, Croatia, Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland, Colombia and England.
That World Cup was widely regarded as Belgium’s best chance of winning a major tournament, with so many of their ‘golden generation’ players at or near the peak of their powers. But they paid a heavy price for winning Group G, beating Japan and Brazil before falling to France in the semi-finals. England’s prize for finishing second to Belgium in their group was a place on the softer side of the draw, which saw them beat Colombia and Sweden before being defeated by Croatia in the semi-finals.
Euro 2016 brought a similar imbalance. Italy excelled in the group stage under Antonio Conte, but their prize for winning Group E would be placed on the heavier side of the draw. They beat Spain 2-0, but lost on penalties in the quarter-finals to Germany. Germany in turn lost to hosts France in the semi-finals. At the other end, Portugal – who had secured third place in Group F after drawing with Iceland, Austria and Hungary – reached the final by beating Croatia in the round of 16, Poland in the quarter-finals and Wales in the semi-finals.
Some competitions are based on a free draw, such as the FA Cup. Others, like the NFL or NBA, see teams ranked by their regular-season record, which should theoretically put the two strongest teams in both conferences on opposite sides of the draw.
International football competitions – including the World Cup, the European Championship, the Copa America, the Africa Cup of Nations and the Asian Cup – do not work this way. From the moment the draw takes place, it is predetermined: the winner of group A will play against the number two of group B, the winner of group C will play against the number two of group D and so on.
The group stage draw is seeded, but teams are assigned to each group by a random draw, raising the possibility of a lopsided knockout round. Because the tournaments are condensed into a four- or five-week period, with matches played in the host country, it is felt to be useful to have a predetermined structure for scheduling, travel and ensuring that each team has sufficient rest between matches.
There are still inconsistencies. Austria have a seven-day break between the end of their group matches on Tuesday and their first knockout round match next Tuesday, while Spain’s opponents in the round of 16 (yet to be determined) have had just four days’ rest.
Everything about knockout football lends itself to variation. But it can be predicted with some confidence that a team that underperformed at Euro 2024 will reach the semi-finals or possibly the final. After a difficult group stage, England, Switzerland, Italy and others have had a soft landing. For one of them, it could even be a springboard.
(Top photo: Andreas Gora/Picture Alliance via Getty Images))
