Because President Trump went looking for American support for Ukraine, European leaders have worried that they could not provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs.
So far it seems that they were right.
The so -called Coalition of the willingness From European countries that support Ukraine, it has difficulty bringing equipment to his battlefields in time since Mr Trump made it clear that Europe had to be shoulder of the load for the safety of Ukraine and the own.
That is a reason why the Parliament of Ukraine overwhelmed on Thursday overwhelmed a deal to give the United States part of future income compared to natural resources, including minerals. While it is a security guarantee, it remains open The possibility of continuous shipments of American weapons and other military aid.
“This gives us hope,” said Yehor Chernev, the deputy chairman of the Ukrainian parliamentary committee for national security, defense and information.
In an interview shortly after the mood, Mr Chernev said that the Ukrainian troops were low on long-away missiles, artillery and, in particular, ballistic air defense systems-by-the majority in the United States, according to an analysis by the analysis Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
By the summer, the military aid that has been approved under the Biden administration will call and Mr Trump seems reluctant to renew it.
“He told me he needs more weapons, but he has been saying that for three years,” Mr Trump said after meeting President Volodymyr Zensky van Ukraine in Rome last month. (The Trump government has enabled Ukraine to buy some small dollar weapons directly from American manufacturers, but not with American government support.)
Allies in Europe have jointly given about half of the estimated $ 130 billion in military support to Ukraine since Russia invaded in 2022. The US sent the rest.
While European leaders and investors Seem willing to pump more money in weapon production, industrial managers and experts predict that it will take a decade to get assembly lines at speed.
“Europe is trying to replace the help we have lost from the United States, but unfortunately they do not have the capacity to do this,” said Mr Chernev. “It takes time between the decision and the real help.”
Although Mr Trump has shown more coordination with Ukraine in recent days, also on Thursday threatening sanctions If Russia refused to agree with an extensive cease-fire, its broader rejection against 80 years of American protection for Europe has encouraged to reconsider their security for Europe.
Allies fear that Mr. Trump will attract Russian deterrent, such as American troops and the American nuclear umbrellaFrom Europe. Focus on their own protection eats in what other European countries have given to Ukraine.
“They touch the double problem of having to re -armor and Ukraine, and industrial capacity is not big enough to do both,” said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, an analytical group that is affiliated with the British army.
He said that Europe could fill the most of what the United States had provided in weapons to Ukraine, “in the medium to long term, if it has the will, and I am not sure if it has the will.”
And for now? “No. Not in the short term,” said Mr. Savill.
The weapons Are not just a matter of life and death for the soldiers of Ukraine. Without sufficient stocks, Ukraine can lose territory if it is forced to withdraw. The ceasefire agreement that Mr Trump tries to mutores would freeze the conflict. In the meantime, that would have retained the land that it has recorded.
Certainly, the stream from weapons to Ukraine from Europe will continue even if American deliveries will dry up. Germany recently sent Ukraine more than 60 mine-resistant armored vehicles, around 50,000 artillery rounds and air defense ammunition, including an IRIS-T Onderhonderschepp that can bring down cruise rockets. Some drones that Groot -Britain and Norway bought last month announced as part of a $ 600 million security package, have since arrived in Ukraine. Estonia sends 10,000 artillery shells.
But much of the European military aid that was promised at the NATO headquarters last month were not immediately incurred in the coming years for the production or purchase of weapons in the coming years. Ukraine may need American weapons for a while.
Part of Europe’s financial support will help the Defense industry of Ukraine. Mr Chernev said that around 800 companies produce weapons in Ukraine. He estimated that Ukraine could produce $ 35 billion in weapons in the coming years, but that at least $ 14 billion of allies was needed to get there. On Saturday, Denmark announced That it would send around $ 930 million to frozen Russian assets to finance the Defense industry of Ukraine on behalf of a European Union fund.
Ukraine has had billions of drones every year, including cheap kamikazes to save the stock of artillery shells, Mr Savill said. Likewise, a Western intelligence officer who keeps a close eye on the war said that Ukraine’s troops have improved in the ration of his Patriot Air Defense missiles, by using less expensive standards to eliminate smaller threats.
“They want more cruise rockets and more ballistic missiles and a variety of other weapons,” said Mr. Savill, “but for the time being they have to fill the gap.”
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