Five key lessons from France’s snap elections

France’s left-wing parties won an unexpected victory in national parliamentary elections on Sunday, denying the nationalist, anti-immigration Rassemblement National a majority in the House of Representatives.

But no party seemed on course to win an outright majority, leaving one of Europe’s largest countries at risk of deadlock or political instability.

The results, compiled by The New York Times using data from the Interior Ministry, confirmed earlier forecasts that no party or bloc would win a majority.

Here are five lessons we learned from the election.

Big surprise #1

There were two big surprises when France elected a new parliament early. Experts, pollsters and forecasters expected neither.

The biggest was the triumph of the left: the coalition won 178 seats and became the country’s leading political bloc. It was the most surprising victory for the left in France since François Mitterrand brought it back from the wilderness after the war by winning the presidency as a socialist in 1981.

President Emmanuel Macron, backed by much of France’s commentators, has spent the last seven years declaring the left — and the socialists in particular — dead, and the more radical fringes like France Unbowed dangerous troublemakers. Both won by a landslide on Sunday.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the founder of France Unbowed, which is expected to have won about 80 seats — perhaps more than a dozen more than the Socialists — said Mr. Macron now had a “duty” to appoint a prime minister from the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front. He boldly said he would refuse to “enter into negotiations with the president.”

In Paris on Sunday evening, a large, exuberant crowd gathered to celebrate in the predominantly working-class neighborhood around the Place de la Bataille-de-Stalingrad.

The other two parties in the New Popular Front are the Greens, expected to get about 35 seats, and the Communists, expected to get about 10 seats.

Big Surprise #2

Another shock was the third-place finish of the Rassemblement National and its allies, which had been expected to win the most seats, if not an outright majority, in the 577-member National Assembly, the most powerful lower house.

The party was already preparing to govern with Macron in what is called a cohabitation, where the prime minister and the president are politically opposed parties.

Still, the Rassemblement National and its allies won 142 seats, more than ever in its history, something the party was quick to emphasize.

“The tide is rising,” Marine Le Pen, the party’s longtime leader and perennial presidential candidate, told reporters on Sunday. “It hasn’t risen high enough this time, but it’s still rising. And as a result, our victory has actually been delayed.”

But the fundamental change predicted before Sunday – that France would become a country of the far right – failed to materialize.

And despite all of Ms Le Pen’s bluff, the Rassemblement National election party was dismal.

The ‘republican front’ may have worked

It is too early to say how voting patterns changed between the two rounds of voting and how the New Popular Front achieved its surprise victory. But strategies aimed at preventing the far right from winning by forming a “republican front” appear to have played a major role.

France’s left-wing parties and Macron’s centrist coalition fielded more than 200 candidates in three-way elections in districts where the far right had a chance of winning seats. Many voters who loathed the far right cast their ballots for whoever was on the left, even if the candidate was hardly their first choice.

“Under normal circumstances, I would never have voted for France Unbowed,” said Hélène Leguillon, 43, after her vote in Le Mans. “We are forced to make a choice that we would not have made otherwise, to block the Rally of the National.”

The far right found the tactic unfair and deprived its voters of their voice.

“Depriving millions of French people of the opportunity to see their ideas come to power will never be a viable path for France,” Jordan Bardella, the leader of Rassemblement National, told supporters in a speech, accusing Macron and the left of making “dangerous electoral deals.”

The turnout increased

Official figures for the latest round of turnout were not immediately available Sunday night, but pollsters predicted it would be around 67 percent, far higher than in 2022, when France last held parliamentary elections. That year, only about 46 percent of registered voters turned out for the second round.

Sunday’s turnout was the highest since 1997, reflecting the huge interest in a race with much higher stakes than usual.

The French legislative elections are usually held just weeks after the presidential election and are usually favourable to the party that wins the presidency. That makes parliamentary votes less likely to attract voters, many of whom feel that the outcome is already decided.

This time, however, voters believed that their vote could fundamentally change the course of Macron’s presidency, and they appear to have been right.

What will happen next is unclear

With no party holding an absolute majority and the lower house of parliament soon to be filled by factions that dislike each other, it is unclear exactly how France should be governed and by whom.

Macron must appoint a prime minister capable of forming a government that cannot be overthrown by a vote of no confidence by the new members of the National Assembly.

There is no clear picture yet of who that might be, and none of the three main blocs – which also have their own internal disagreements – appear willing to work with the others.

“French political culture is not conducive to compromise,” said Samy Benzina, professor of public law at the University of Poitiers.

Mr. Mélenchon is hated by many in the Socialist Party (and even by some in his own party, who resent the power he wields within it, even though he is no longer formally its leader). Mr. Macron’s Renaissance Party includes members who resent the president for calling early elections. Moreover, most lawmakers who are not members of Rassemblement National detest the party.

Mr Macron himself is a powerful generator of anger, as he has repeatedly proven during his seven years as president, although he has already ruled out stepping down. The latest survey by the Ifop polling institute, carried out after his decision to call early elections, but before the vote itself, gave him an approval rating of only 26 percent.

Where will the next Prime Minister of France come from? What legislative power does Mr. Macron still have? Can he even preside if the lower house is ungovernable?

Stay tuned.

Segolène Le Stradic reported from Le Mans, France.