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The first full Saturday of the American football season is already behind us and the College Football Playoff race is already at the top of the agenda.
Yes, it’s only one week of games. Yes, we always overreact to Week 1. Yes, there’s still a lot of football to be played. But it’s impossible to ignore the new 12-team CFP, because every Football Bowl Subdivision team enters the season with a chance to make the field. And even one week of action was enough to glean some takeaways that will impact the rest of the CFP race.
Here are five lessons from Week 1 that apply to the Playoffs.
1. Prepare for some eruptions in December.
Lopsided results were a common concern in the 10 years of the four-team CFP. Whether in the semifinals (Alabama vs. everyone else) or the national championship game (Georgia 65, TCU 7), several playoff games became blowouts because the top two teams in the sport were so much better than everyone else. Georgia and Clemson’s neutral-site opener in Atlanta also served as a test for the 12-team era, as the SEC’s No. 1 favorite took on one of the ACC’s best teams, ranked No. 14.
The result: a 34-3 rout in which the Bulldogs outscored the Tigers by 25 points in the second half. Georgia looks as good as anyone thought it would. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs not reaching the Playoff for the third time in four years, whether as SEC champions or as one of seven at-large selections. Georgia has a tough schedule, traveling to Alabama in Week 4, Texas in mid-October and Ole Miss in November, but any SEC contender with two losses is still likely to make the field. That fact could one day take some of the shine off these eye-catching nonconference regular-season tests, but that’s the price to pay for more universal access to the championship in an expanded Playoff. And if this Georgia team gets matched up against another ACC team, a Big 12 team or a Group of 5 team in the early rounds of December, the talent gap could lead to ugly final margins like we saw on Saturday.
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Clemson, meanwhile, has exhibited the same offensive issues it had a year ago. Georgia may be the best team in the country, but the Tigers again don’t look like a national championship contender based on Saturday’s efforts. Still, the 12-team format means that no Power 4 conference team’s season is over after Week 1. All Clemson needs to do is win the ACC to secure a spot. And that still seems doable, because…
2. Miami looks fantastic, but the rest of the ACC does not.
As the ACC League office battles Florida State and Clemson in court amid the two members’ continued attempts to back out of the conference’s rights agreement, the ACC would have done well to get off to a strong start on the field and keep the redistricting noise in the background. The league entered the season with no shortage of optimism, thanks to seven teams in the top 30 of the AP poll (three of which fell just outside the Top 25).
Instead, it was a rough first week for what was seen as the league’s top seed. Defending champion and preseason favorite Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in Ireland in Week 0, Clemson got clobbered by Georgia on Saturday, popular outsider Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt, and preseason No. 24 NC State needed a fourth-quarter comeback to escape Western Carolina on Thursday.
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But then there’s Miami! The Hurricanes lived up to their offseason hype with a dominant 41-17 win over Florida. Transfer quarterback Cam Ward looked spectacular, as did Miami’s other transfer signings. That’s what you pay for. It’s only one week, but Miami looked like the best team in the league by a wide margin. And with a schedule that avoids Clemson and draws Virginia Tech and Florida State at home, Miami will suddenly be a very popular choice to make the CFP.
The Hurricanes now have a 42 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 23 percent chance of winning the ACC, according to Austin Mock’s forecasting model, while Clemson and Florida State have each fallen to a 20 percent chance of making the CFP. Beyond Miami, the rest of the league will have to play much better if the conference wants to find a second CFP bid.
ACC Title and Playoff Chances (September 1)
Find all CFP forecasts here
3. Penn State looks like a real contender.
When the CFP expanded to 12 teams, Penn State appeared to be the biggest beneficiary: The Nittany Lions have finished in the top 12 six times since 2016, but never made the four-team CFP field.
That feeling is even stronger after Penn State’s dominant 34-12 win over West Virginia. The defense was its usual physical, stout self, but the offense was explosive and, dare I say, electrifying, after receiving meme-worthy ridicule for its reluctance to attack vertically last year. The Nittany Lions had two completions of at least 50 yards on Saturday, compared to just five last season. Quarterback Drew Allar completed 11 of 17 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns, plus another 44 yards on the ground. He looked composed and sharp on the road in a way he didn’t last year.
It’s still early, but Penn State looked like a team that might not make the CFP but might win a game or two. The Nittany Lions now have a 74 percent chance of making the CFP, according to our model, up from 67 percent before Week 1.
4. Notre Dame already has an easy path to the Playoffs.
As an independent, the Fighting Irish don’t have a conference championship to play for, and because the top four seeds in the expanded CFP go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, even a Notre Dame team that ends the season at No. 1 wouldn’t get a first-round bye. Still, the extra at-large bids available in the expanded field help the Irish’s chances of making the playoffs immensely, and after a 23-13 season opener against Texas A&M in College Station, Notre Dame should already be a heavy favorite to qualify, with a 72 percent chance of making it, according to The Athletics‘s model.
It’s highly likely that Notre Dame will be the favorite in every game left on the schedule, with the toughest remaining games likely being at Georgia Tech, home to Florida State and at USC to close out the year. The Irish can probably afford to lose one of those and still find themselves in the CFP field at 11-1. Marcus Freeman’s team has playoff hopes this year, and Saturday’s win was a huge step toward that goal. A consistent win in Week 1 will make their margin for error that much larger.
5. The Group of 5 favourites escaped a few scares, with major Power 4 tests ahead.
The new stakes for the Group of 5 were immediately apparent when Boise State, the favorite for the CFP spot reserved for the G5’s top-ranked conference champion, fell behind Georgia Southern in the fourth quarter. The Broncos came back to win 56-45 on the strength of 377 rushing yards between Ashton Jeanty and Sire Gaines, maintaining their Mountain West frontrunner status and boosting Jeanty’s draft stock. Up next is a trip to Oregon, which had to hold on to survive a surprise bid from FCS Idaho.
Sun Belt favorite Appalachian State led East Tennessee State by just seven points in the third quarter, but went on to win 38-10. Next up for the Mountaineers: a trip to Clemson.
Meanwhile, reigning Conference USA champion Liberty trailed FCS Campbell deep in the second quarter and led by just 10 points in the fourth quarter, but went on to win 41-24. AAC favorite Memphis, for its part, had no trouble in a 40-0 win over FCS North Alabama. The Tigers travel to Florida State in two weeks. The strength of these teams’ resumes and their conferences will be under scrutiny throughout the fall.
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(Photo: Jack Gorman/Getty Images)
