Former MLB stars impressed as Ohtani approaches 50/50 milestone: ‘Literally changing the game’
The wonder of Shohei Ohtani is his extraordinary skill level in everything a baseball player does. Seven seasons into a career like no other, he hasn’t even shown them all yet.
“What he does is a freak of nature,” said Andruw Jones, who ended his high-profile career in Japan a decade ago. “I saw this kid when he was 18, 19, and I knew what kind of player he was. He wasn’t really a standout as a hitter, but defensively, as an outfielder, he was very, very good. I would go after batting practice, when they were infield, just to watch him throw. He was so impressive.”
Ohtani may one day play outfield in Major League Baseball and pitch like we’ve never seen before. But this season is a unique example of his speed. Ohtani, the prodigious designated hitter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, has 48 home runs and 48 stolen bases through Tuesday and should soon become a founding member of the 50/50 club.
48/48 FOR SHOHEI OHTANI! photo.twitter.com/QoXCvhkrHI
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 17, 2024
It’s another mind-bending trick from baseball’s master magician, who never had more than 26 steals in a season, in the majors or Japan. And it’s perhaps even more astonishing for players who have done one or the other, or both.
Only two players in MLB history have hit 50 home runs and stolen 50 bases in a season, let alone in the same season. One is Barry Bonds, who stole 52 bases for Pittsburgh in 1990 and hit a record 73 home runs for San Francisco in 2001. The other is Brady Anderson, who had 53 steals in 1992 and 50 home runs four years later, both for Baltimore.
Historically, far fewer players have hit 50 home runs in a season than have stolen 50 bases. Even Ohtani has yet to do either.
“When I did it, I think it was 14, and now it’s probably over 30,” Anderson, who has a keen interest in baseball history, said of his 50-homer season. “But even if it’s 30 or 40, it’s still very few. I’m sure the number of guys who steal 50-plus bases is in the hundreds. So the home run part is the hardest part. And then guys who have 50 homers tend to be bigger guys.”
Anderson did indeed become the 14th different player to hit 50 home runs in a season. (Well, more than 100 have stolen 50 bases.) While 31 players have now reached the milestone, some of the game’s most celebrated sluggers — Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Albert Pujols — never have.
“It should be a synchronous year with a lot of things going right,” said New York Yankees forward Giancarlo Stanton, who hit 59 home runs for Miami in 2017, his only season with 37-plus home runs.
“You’ve got to keep your balance and your timing all year long, not too many lulls. And even when you’re not feeling good, you’ve got to be able to make your couple hits go like homers; instead of two singles in your 2-for-20-something phase, you’ve got to squeak them out like homers. The whole rhythm of your season has to be right.”
In 2021, the first of Ohtani’s two MVP seasons for the Los Angeles Angels, he hit just two home runs in his final 21 games and finished with 46. Last year, when he was MVP again, Ohtani hit his 44th and final home run on Aug. 23 before an elbow injury ended his season.
That injury, which required reconstructive surgery, has kept Ohtani from pitching or playing in the field in 2024, making this the perfect season — and perhaps the only one — to maximize his velocity.
“I think there comes a point where the Dodgers think, ‘We love stolen bases, but if we cut it down to 25 or 30, we can still win,'” said Juan Pierre, who recorded 50 steals in five seasons, tied with Carl Crawford for the most steals in the 2000s.
“I think (the Atlanta Braves) will do that with (Ronald) Acuña (Jr.). I don’t think he’s going to steal 73 bases again. With his knees, they’re going to say, ‘Look, you’re valuable to us, we’ll get somebody else to steal bases.’ A lot of guys start out that way — like Matt Kemp — but as you get older, guys just stop, especially if you can hit hard. There’s no reason to be out there with a chance of getting hurt.
“And if Ohtani pitches again, do you really want him to run and maybe hurt his shoulder? I don’t think he can put up those numbers and pitch.”
Good assumption. As Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said The Athletics Fabian Ardaya on Sunday, “It’s a big, physical toll. I don’t see how he could do this if he were pitching. I don’t think so.”
When Pierre stole 64 bases for the Dodgers in 2007, he hit zero home runs. Fourteen others have stolen 50 for the Dodgers, and the most home runs by any one of them was Davey Lopes’ 10 in 1974.
By the time Jones played for the Dodgers in 2008, he had essentially retired from stealing bases. He had 56 steals in 1995, his last full minor-league season, but had 27 in the majors. Only one Atlanta player — Otis Nixon in 1991 — ever had 50 steals during Bobby Cox’s quarter-century as Braves manager, and Jones prioritized defense anyway.
“I wanted to save runs,” said Jones, who hit 51 homers for Atlanta in 2005 and won 10 Gold Gloves. “When I was young, I stole 20 every year, basically. But as you get older, it’s like, should I keep stealing or should I save my legs and be able to hit fly balls to center field? My team was counting on me to do that.”
No player has ever stolen more than 24 bases and hit 50 home runs. In Anderson’s power season, he said, a torn quadriceps muscle limited him to 21 steals. If Anderson had been more of a threat, though, pitchers might have worn him down with repeated throws to first base.
“The abuse was a lot worse on pickoff attempts than on stolen bases,” Anderson said. “Ohtani’s a big guy and that could have worn him down, repeated pickoff attempts.”
Since last season, pitchers are only allowed to break away from the rubber twice; if they try a third time without catching the runner, it counts as a bar. But even with that rule — and the bigger bases, which players believe have little impact — only three players stole 50 bases last season, and only Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz has done so this season.
Baseball can change the rules, but not the risk-averse nature of the modern game. Two of the last four Dodgers with 50-steal seasons (Steve Sax in 1983 and Eric Young Jr. in 1999) had a success rate of less than 70 percent.
“I ask a couple guys today, ‘Hey man, why don’t you steal more? The bag’s bigger, they can only throw it twice,'” said Pierre, who had a career 75.1 percent success rate but led the league in seven caught stealing.
“And their biggest thing — and it’s not from the team, it’s from the man — they’re like, ‘It’s going to hurt my WAR if I get thrown out, so I don’t even want to take that chance.’ Wow, that’s something I never thought about. Those stats weren’t even there when I was playing, maybe toward the end of my career. But this is (Ohtani) saying, ‘If I’m going to steal a base, I’m going to make it.'”
For Anderson, Ohtani’s stealing percentage — 48 for 52, 92.3 percent — is most striking. Only two players in history (Max Carey in 1922 and Jacoby Ellsbury in 2013) have 50 steals in a season without being caught at least five times.
“If he doesn’t steal a base this whole year, 47 and four — that’s unusual in the history of this game,” Anderson said last week, before Ohtani stole his 48th base. “I mean, 40 and 10 is amazing, and he’s 47 and four. That’s Carlos Beltran stuff.”
Beltran — who had 312 career steals with an 86.4 percent success rate — peaked with 42 steals in 2004 and 41 homers two years later. Under current disengagement rules, Anderson said, Beltran could have had a 50-50 season. But the best candidate might have been Eric Davis.
Davis had everything—except durability. After a 27-homer, 80-steal season with Cincinnati in 1986, he hit 37 homers with 50 steals in 1987. But in a 17-year career, Davis never played more than 135 games. His best days were spent on the unforgiving AstroTurf of Riverfront Stadium.
“It was a double-edged sword, because that old grass, that’s the best ever for stealing bases,” Anderson said. “You’re so much faster with that little artificial turf on cement. It’s a grind, but it’s definitely a faster track.”
Primitive turf is long gone, of course, and Dodger Stadium has natural grass. Ohtani’s spikes never make it into fair territory, since he never defends, but that’s a challenge in itself as a base stealer.
Juan Pierre stole 50 or more bases in five of his 14 MLB seasons. He finished his career with 18 total home runs. (Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today)
“He doesn’t have to run on the field and stand out in the elements, but what he does, I think, would be difficult too – sitting down and then having to go out and run,” Pierre said. “I’m sure he rides the bike and does his drills, but it’s still not like in defense to keep you loose.”
No pitching, no fielding, no AstroTurf, no endless pickoff attempts — it doesn’t matter. For those with the power or speed to put a 50 on their stat sheets, it’s still a tremendous feat to utilize both skills so mightily at the same time.
And don’t forget: All those home runs also cost Ohtani some steals.
“Hitting 50 home runs, that’s 50 times less you have to do anything on the bases,” Pierre said. “He just trots, so he’s good.”
Pierre laughed. The Dodgers are in Miami this week, not far from Pierre’s house. He’s never seen Ohtani play and thinks he might check out the show.
“It almost makes you jealous, how can you be that fast and hit the ball 500 feet?” said Pierre, who hit 18 home runs in 14 seasons. “It’s just not fair, what he does. He literally changes the game.”
(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
