Four reasons why Indiana is the most compelling candidate for the 12-team College Football Playoff
A College Football Playoff expansion has been created for teams like Indiana.
Coach Curt “Google me” Cignetti and the Hoosiers are having one of the best seasons in program history. Indiana football dates back to the 1880s and this is the first time it has gone 9-0. The Hoosiers have never won as many as 10 games in a season, a level they were able to reach on Saturday against Michigan. Indiana, which has defeated the Wolverines just 10 times in 72 meetings, is 14 1/2 points ahead of the defending national champions, per BetMGM. That’s a stunning sentence.
Indiana’s rise from 3-9 to ruthless bulldozer that flattens everything in his path under a first-year coach is one of the stories of the season. That it coincides with a new playoff format intended to reward more teams is perfect timing. Instead of being sent to a bowl game to potentially face an opponent with much of the starting lineup opted out, the ultimate Cinderella team will get to play for the national title.
Maybe.
Indiana landed at No. 8 on Tuesday night in the selection committee’s initial rankings, the first CFP Top 25 in the new 12-team format, and finished as a No. 9 seed, facing No. 8 seed Tennessee (ranked No. 7 overall) in the first round .
The Hoosiers’ overall worthiness has the potential to be the most fascinating case study in Year 1 of this new system, a Rorschach test for the committee and fans. What do you see with the Hoosiers: a good team that beats up punching bags, or a team that can compete against the best in the country?
To be clear, we’re not assuming anything.
We wouldn’t dare suggest that Cignetti, quarterback Kurtis Rourke, pass-rush terror Mikail Kamara and company are unable to complete an undefeated regular season – which would include a win against No. 3 Ohio State – and the Big Ten title game to roll into with a spot in the CFP secured, just playing for seeding.
Austin Mock’s model has Indiana’s chances of making the Playoff at 85 percent, even though its chances of winning the Big Ten are only 10 percent. Why? Indiana could very well lose at Ohio State on Nov. 23. At 11-1 with a loss to the Buckeyes — for the sake of this exercise, let’s make the outcome of the game something less than a nail-biter, but not quite an Ohio State blowout — Indiana would likely be shut out of the Big Ten championship game.
It’s easy to say that an 11-1 Big Ten team is a lock. And believe us, everyone at the conference office in Rosemont, Illinois, will make this case. But Indiana could be a test case for several CFP selection theories.
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How much value does the committee attach to the strength of the scheme?
It would be difficult to argue that a serious candidate for an at-large CFP bid has played a weaker schedule than Indiana so far. None of the myriad strength-of-schedule metrics rate the Hoosiers’ slate favorably so far. ESPN’s FPI ranks Indiana’s SOS 103rd out of 134 Football Bowl Subdivision teams. The only other Power 4 team outside the top 90 is Utah at 100. Mock ranks Indiana’s previous strength of schedule 82nd and its remaining strength of schedule 22nd.
Recent improvements by Washington and UCLA should help the Hoosiers. Nebraska’s slide doesn’t do that. The Hoosiers’ non-conference schedule has been particularly weak (FIU, Western Illinois and Charlotte), and they won’t be as affected by this weekend’s game against Michigan (5-4) as they probably expected a month ago. But obviously Ohio State will give Indiana a big boost. It doesn’t seem fair that the Hoosiers’ season could go the way it’s going in Columbus, but if they’re lumped in with a group of top contenders that includes a handful of 10-2 SEC teams — like Alabama, for example — simply one loss having less may not be a deciding factor.
Skeptical about the computers? What about? this from Fox’s Chris Fallicawho pointed out that Indiana could finish 11-1 with zero wins over teams receiving one point in the AP Top 25.
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It’s not just who you play, it’s how you play
Indiana is a wagon. The committee doesn’t actually use a metric called Game Control, but the Hoosiers are said to be the kings of it.
“The way they played in those games, and the dominance they showed in those games … has been really impressive to the committee,” said selection committee chairman Warde Manuel, Michigan’s athletic director. “And so we couldn’t ignore that because it was related to where they were ranked and how we saw them. Even though the strength of schedule is important, we looked at those games as well.”
Indiana leads the nation in scoring margin against FBS opponents at 27.8 points per game. Last week against Michigan State, they fell behind for the first time all season and then scored 47 straight points to win 47-10.
The committee does not emphasize the profit margin so as not to encourage the score. It’s a crazy nod to sportsmanship, because true running-it-up is so rare. However, dominance is expressed in other ways, and you can’t miss that with the Hoosiers. The same stats that don’t like Indiana’s schedule and adjust to the quality of opponents still like what’s going on with the Hoosiers. Indiana is 10th in the FPI, just behind undefeated Miami and just ahead of Penn State.
Indiana beats bad and mediocre opponents like an elite team would.
The power of the Big Ten
Let’s call it what it is: The Big Ten and SEC have sent a message to the selection committee: We are better than these other leagues and should be treated as such.
Will the committee concede this point? What if there is a “bid-stealer” situation in the ACC or the Big 12? For example, what if Miami loses the ACC championship game and is 12-1 in the main pool? What about Indiana being rated against 12-1 BYU under similar circumstances?
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The eye test and the power of the logo
When we talk about the eye test, we often mean: how do you recruit? That’s where it becomes especially difficult for Indiana to make comparisons to SEC teams. Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss all look very good coming out, and we know they have rosters that can compete at a high level — even if their resumes are lacking in pop. I’m looking at you, Tennessee.
To what extent does brand value creep into the process? Put Alabama on one side and Indiana on the other and ask anyone who is better. What about a head-to-head matchup between 11-1 Notre Dame and 11-1 Indiana?
Of course, there could be enough room for all those teams, depending on how things go in the country.
Welcome to the College Football Playoff race, Hoosiers. Your participation has made the coming month a lot more interesting.
(Photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
