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When President Emmanuel Macron defended his decision to call early parliamentary elections last month, he repeatedly argued that France needed a “clarification” of the political situation.
But on Monday, after the French cast their final votes, the situation was anything but clear.
A nationwide vote for the 577 seats in the National Assembly, the country’s most powerful parliamentary building, failed to produce a working majority. Instead, it left unanswered who France’s next prime minister might be, who the country’s next government might be, and where the country is headed.
Here’s what you need to know about what happens next.
What are the results?
Three large blocs emerged from the elections — none large enough to govern alone, and potentially too antagonistic to work together. None reached the threshold for an absolute majority, 289 seats, which would allow them to form a government that could survive their rivals’ no-confidence motions.
The New Popular Front, an alliance of left-wing parties including the Greens, the Communists, the Socialists and the far-left France Unbowed party, came in first with about 180 seats in the National Assembly. Mr. Macron and his centrist allies came in second, with about 160 lawmakers, and the far-right, anti-immigration Rassemblement National party and its allies followed, with about 140 lawmakers.
The country’s two-round election system — an early vote and a runoff — typically produces absolute majorities dominated by a single party allied with the president that forms the government. So Sunday’s result was unusual.
Coalition? Chaos? What happens now?
“It’s a leap into the unknown,” said Olivier Costa, research professor at the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po University in Paris.
One possibility floated before the election — when pollsters predicted the far right would perform much stronger — was cohabitation. That happens when a rival party to the president wins an absolute majority. The president is then virtually forced to choose a prime minister from that party or face the threat of successive motions of no confidence for his or her candidate.
While it is highly likely that Macron will have to appoint someone from outside his party, none of his opponents have the majority to force him to do so immediately.
Leaders of the New Popular Front insist that, because they were the first to enter, Mr. Macron should appoint someone from their ranks as prime minister; that person would then appoint a cabinet. But the party and its allies are about 100 lawmakers short of the absolute majority needed to survive safely in the current polarized political context of no-confidence motions from other parties.
It is highly unlikely that Mr. Macron would choose anyone from the far-right Rassemblement National or the far-left France Unbowed, two parties he has branded “extremes” and with which other political groups have flatly ruled out working with. He could try to reach out to parties within the New Popular Front that have some common ground with his centrist alliance, but those parties have shown little interest in working with him.
Mr Macron could in theory appoint anyone, even someone who is not a lawmaker, as long as the person reflects a political consensus in the National Assembly. Some analysts and politicians have floated the idea of a broad coalition, made up of parties within the three main blocs, that could agree on a prime minister and a limited political agenda.
But that’s not so easy now. “None of the political forces have much interest in working together, because the French parties are primarily designed to prepare presidential candidates,” Costa said, noting that many of Macron’s rivals and allies were already laying the groundwork for a presidential race in 2027, when Macron must step down.
Another possibility that has been floated is an independent cabinet of experts that would govern the country while a coalition agreement is worked out. However, this solution is very unfamiliar to the French.
Are the clocks ticking?
Legally, no. There is no deadline prescribed by the Constitution for appointing a prime minister and forming a government.
Gabriel Attal, Macron’s current prime minister, offered his resignation on Monday, as is customary after parliamentary elections. But Macron asked him to stay on for the time being to ensure “stability,” the Élysée Palace said.
Mr Attal could at least stay on to lead the country through the Summer Olympics in Paris, which end on August 11.
But continued stalemate will seriously hamper France’s ability to approve a budget and pass key legislation in the autumn.
Could Mr Macron get out of this quagmire by calling new elections? Not anytime soon. The constitution stipulates that the president must wait at least a year after an early election before calling another one.
This means that the newly elected National Assembly will remain in office at least until then, and lawmakers can file multiple motions of no confidence without fear of having to go to the polls again.
