Table of Contents
Voters in France will cast their ballots on Sunday in the final round of snap parliamentary elections, a result that could force President Emmanuel Macron to govern alongside far-right opponents or herald chronic political instability weeks before the Summer Olympics in Paris.
Mr Macron called elections last month for the National Assembly, France’s 577-seat lower house, a risky gamble that appeared to have largely backfired after the first round of voting last week.
Most polling stations close at 6pm local time on Sunday, or until 8pm in larger cities. National seat projections by polling stations, based on preliminary results, are expected just after 8pm. Official results will arrive during the night.
What to look out for:
Will the far right win enough seats for an absolute majority?
That will be the big question.
The first round of voting was dominated by the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally party. An alliance of left-wing parties called the New Popular Front came in a strong second, while Mr. Macron’s party and his allies came in third.
Seventy-six seats were won outright, about half by the National Rally. But the rest went to the second round.
In more than 300 districts, there were three warring parties, until more than 200 candidates from left-wing parties and Macron’s centrist coalition withdrew to avoid a split in the vote and prevent the far right from winning.
That makes it more difficult, but not impossible, for Rassemblement National and its allies to achieve an absolute majority.
Most French pollsters The party and its allies are expected to win 175 to 240 seats — short of an absolute majority of 289 seats. But if the Rassemblement National and its allies win an absolute majority, they will almost certainly be able to form a government — and Mr. Macron, who says he will stay in office, will have to work with them.
How will the country’s leadership function?
A controversial outcome with Macron as president and Rassemblement National leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister is possible, under what France calls a cohabitation.
The prime minister and cabinet of France are responsible to the lower house and determine the country’s policy. But they are appointed by the president, who has extensive executive powers and is directly elected by the public.
Usually, the president and prime minister are politically aligned. (In France, presidential and legislative elections are held every five years within weeks of each other, making it likely that voters will support the same party twice.) But when the presidency and the National Assembly are in conflict, the president has little choice but to appoint a prime minister from the opposing party—or someone whom lawmakers cannot overthrow with a vote of no confidence.
Cohabitation has happened before, between left-wing and conservative leaders in the mainstream, from 1986 to 1988, from 1993 to 1995 and from 1997 to 2002. But cohabitation between Macron, a pro-European centrist, and Bardella, a Eurosceptic nationalist, would be unprecedented.
What if no one gets an absolute majority?
The likely scenario, according to polls, is a lower house roughly divided into three blocs with conflicting agendas and, in some cases, deep hostility toward each other: the Rassemblement National, the New Popular Front and a pared-down centrist alliance including Macron’s Renaissance Party.
Currently, no bloc appears to be able to find enough partners to form a majority, leaving Macron with limited options.
“French political culture is not conducive to compromise,” said Samy Benzina, a professor of public law at the University of Poitiers, noting that French institutions are designed to produce “clear majorities that can govern independently.”
“It would be the first time in the Fifth Republic that a government could not be formed due to the lack of a solid majority,” he said.
Some analysts and politicians have suggested that a broad coalition of parties could stretch from the Greens to more moderate conservatives. But France is not used to forming coalitions and several political leaders have ruled it out.
Another possibility is an interim government that would run the day-to-day affairs until a political breakthrough is achieved. But this too would be a break with French tradition.
If none of these solutions work, the country could be headed for months of political stalemate.
Will the vote end in violence?
The campaign, one of the shortest in modern French history, was marred by a tense atmosphere, racist incidents and violence.
One television news program filmed a couple supporting the National Rally hurling insults at a black neighborand told her to “go to the dog house.” A television presenter of North African descent revealed a racist letter he had received at home. bakery in Avignon was burned and covered with homophobic and racist labels.
Gérald Darmanin, the French interior minister, said on Friday that more than 50 people – candidates, their surrogates or supporters – had been “physically attacked” during the campaign.
There are concerns that the post-election protests could turn violent. Authorities have deployed about 30,000 security forces across the country, including about 5,000 in the Paris region, to deal with potential unrest.
Catherine Porter contributed to the reporting.
