French elections deliver stalemate as left rises and far right falls short

France was left with a parliament without a single party and great political uncertainty after the three largest political groups (left, centre and right) won a large share of the vote in early parliamentary elections on Sunday, but nothing close to an absolute majority.

Projections based on preliminary results have overturned widespread predictions of a clear victory for the Rassemblement National, Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigrant party that dominated the first round of voting a week ago. Instead, the left-wing New Popular Front appeared to be in the lead, with between 172 and 208 seats, according to various polls.

President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance party, which shook the country a month ago by calling elections, came in second with between 150 and 174 seats, the forecasts showed. Behind it was the National Rally, which took between 113 and 152 seats.

The details of the outcome may still change, but it is clear that, to a remarkable extent, a battle between centrists and the left to form a “Republican Front” to take on Rassemblement National in the second round of voting worked. Candidates across France dropped out of the three-way race, calling for unity against Ms Le Pen’s party.

“The president now has the duty to call on the New Popular Front to govern,” said Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the far-left leader who is the charismatic but polarizing voice of the left-wing alliance. “We are ready.”

But France looked almost ungovernable, with the Paris Olympics less than three weeks away. The left revolted, the Rassemblement National added dozens of seats to its National Assembly presence, and Macron’s party suffered a stinging defeat, with the 250 seats his party and its allies held in the National Assembly reduced by about a third.

The result was that in the deeply divided lower house of parliament, where most legislative power lies, no governing coalition seemed immediately conceivable. Macron’s centrists were caught between far-right and far-left groups that detest each other and him.

Jordan Bardella, Ms Le Pen’s protégé who led the National Rally to victory in the European Parliament election and the first round of legislative voting last month, hailed the “most important breakthrough in the entire history” of the party. He called the deals that frustrated its drive for an absolute majority “an alliance of the dishonourable” and said Mr Macron had condemned France to “uncertainty and instability”.

Although it won fewer seats than predicted, the Rassemblement National has now established a place in French politics that has put an end to the post-war political landscape that was built around the idea that the far right was unworthy of positions of power because of its open racism and anti-Semitism.

Ms Le Pen has distanced herself from that past. But even in its new form, the party’s core message remains that immigrants dilute a glorified French national identity and that stricter borders and rules are needed to keep them out or prevent them from benefiting from France’s social safety net.

France rejected that vision but voted overwhelmingly for change. It did not want more of the same. It sent a sharp message to the pro-business elites who have gathered around Mr. Macron, whose term is limited and who must step down in 2027.

“France is more divided than ever,” said Alain Duhamel, a leading political scientist and author. “We have learned that it was a very bad idea for Mr. Macron to dissolve parliament and call these elections.”

At a time when a faltering President Biden is struggling to counter former President Donald J. Trump’s nationalistic, America First message, a prolonged French political limbo could contribute to a volatile international situation. Ms. Le Pen, who has long been close to Russia, has tried to recast herself as a cautious supporter of Ukraine, but there is little doubt that Moscow will welcome the growing influence of the Rassemblement National.

The New Popular Front campaigned on a platform that would raise France’s minimum wage, lower the legal retirement age from 64 to 60, reinstate a wealth tax and freeze the price of energy and gas. Instead of restricting immigration, as the National Rally promised, the alliance said it would make the asylum process more generous and flexible.

The platform said the alliance supported Ukraine’s struggle for freedom against Russia and called on President Vladimir V. Putin to “answer for his crimes before international justice.”

How exactly the alliance’s economic program would be financed at a time when France is struggling with a growing budget deficit, and how a pro-immigration policy would be applied in a country where it is perhaps the most sensitive issue, was unclear.

The New Popular Front, which is deeply divided between moderate socialists and the far left, did very well in the first round of voting among young people and in projects around major cities, including Paris, where many North African immigrants live.

Mr. Mélenchon’s fervently pro-Palestinian stance proved popular in these areas, even as it provoked outrage when he appeared to cross a line into anti-Semitism by accusing Yaël Braun-Pivet, the Jewish speaker of the National Assembly, of “camping in Tel Aviv to encourage the massacre.” He said of a large demonstration against anti-Semitism last November that “the friends of unconditional support for the massacre have their rendezvous.”

Nothing had forced Mr Macron to call early elections, but he was willing to gamble that he could still be a unifying figure against the extremes. In fact, he had lost the appeal to do so in his seven years in power. He declared left and right to be outdated labels when he came to power in 2017. They are no longer.

Still, Macron’s centrist alliance performed better than expected and he lived long enough to fight another day.

It seems that Macron now has two options, short of resigning, as he has said he will not consider it.

The first is to try to form a broad coalition stretching from the left to what remains of moderate Gaullist conservatives, some of whom broke a taboo during the campaign by joining Rassemblement National.

This possibility seems unlikely. Mr Macron has made no secret of his intense dislike for Mr Mélenchon; the feeling is mutual.

The second, less ambitious option would be for Macron to try to form some kind of interim government to handle current affairs.

For example, Macron could ask former prime ministers from parties in a centrist bloc – his own party, the Socialists, the centre-right Republicans – to propose a government of technocrats or leading figures who can handle a limited agenda over the coming year.

According to the Constitution, at least one year must pass before the next parliamentary elections.

One area where Macron could still exert significant influence, more so than if he had been forced to work with Bardella as prime minister, is international and military affairs, the traditional domain of the president in the Fifth Republic.

A staunch supporter of the 27-member European Union, which the Rassemblement National wants to weaken, he will undoubtedly continue his quest for a “European power” with more integrated armies, defense industries and technological research, but his influence could be diminished by domestic weakness.

Mr. Macron, once seduced by a rapprochement with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, has also become an outspoken supporter of Ukraine’s fight for freedom. With the U.S. presidential election just four months away, doubts have grown about the West’s willingness to continue arming and financing Ukraine.

Russia clearly believes that France will falter. “The people of France strive for a sovereign foreign policy that serves their national interests and a break with the dictates of Washington and Brussels,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement a few days ago. “French officials will not be able to ignore these profound shifts in the attitudes of the vast majority of citizens.”

In short, France is facing great uncertainty, both internally and externally. It seems that a constitutional crisis cannot be ruled out in the coming months. Gabriel Attal, the outgoing centrist prime minister who offered his resignation on Sunday, declared that “no absolute majority can be controlled by the extremes tonight thanks to our determination and values.”

He claimed a narrow victory, but of course the centre does not have such a majority either.

Unlike many other European countries, including Belgium, Italy and Germany, France has no tradition of months of negotiations to form complex coalition governments between parties with divergent views, or of forging temporary alliances. Charles de Gaulle designed the Fifth Republic in 1958 to end the parliamentary turmoil and short-lived governments of the Fourth Republic.

One theory floated for Macron’s mysterious decision to call elections was that, with Rassemblement National in power and Bardella as prime minister, the far-right party’s shine would wear off before the 2027 presidential election.

It was another gamble, based on the idea that it is easier to rant from the sidelines than to take difficult government decisions. Mr. Macron does not want to hand over the keys to the Élysée Palace, the seat of the presidency, to Ms. Le Pen in three years.

In this sense, the election result could confuse Mr Macron and benefit Ms Le Pen. She has demonstrated her growing popularity without her party taking on the burdens of office. On the other hand, a deep-seated French resistance to the idea of ​​power going to the far right was illustrated once again.