Giannis should stay with Bucks. But his case is the first test in how the NBA’s new rules affect stars
Giannis Antetokounmpo should stay in Milwaukee.
Make that clear in advance. This isn’t some old Warriors writer rethinking a future with the Greek Freak as the new pillar of Golden State, one of the NBA’s It to notice. I’ll leave that up to Warriors owner Joe Lacob.
And maybe Stephen Curry.
And maybe Giannis.
Okay, seriously. Antetokounmpo belongs in Milwaukee, in Milwaukee. The joyful side of sports, the romantic view from 30,000 feet, compels him to stay with the Bucks, where he became a legend. The Chick-Fil-A, where he ordered 50-piece chicken nuggets, should become a state landmark.
Soft moments, however, are about past accolades. The Bucks, with the all-time best in his prime, rightfully want more than the 2021 Larry O’Brien Trophy they earned. But what emerges from their current play on the field signals an impending stalemate.
The big move Milwaukee took to acquire a superstar last season, trading Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard, is being revealed as a miss — at least in terms of its championship aspirations. Like a giant puzzle not yet fully formed, we can see enough to imagine the final image.
Of course it is possible to be wrong. The Bucks could turn this around. While they sit at the bottom, they have played the best in the Eastern Conference close enough to warrant optimism.
But honestly, my dear, this feels like a problem that Khris Middleton’s return can’t solve.
The Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers look like big players relatively speaking, and the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks are threats in the East despite their mediocre starts. And Bucks fans would be wise not to look West right now. It’s scary that way.
The Bucks are 2-8 through their first ten games, disappointing enough to start the discourse on what to do next. And while nothing about Giannis suggests he wants out — and his new three-year, $175 million extension begins next year — he is the mega figure the rest of the league is watching. The player who can change the dynamics of the competition. Naturally, people will be interested in whether a fourth consecutive season that doesn’t make it past the second round will lead to major changes in Milwaukee.
All of this points to a potential moment of truth for the Bucks and Antetokounmpo, as we wait to see how the league’s new climate and culture will impact their decision. The NBA’s push for equality changed the landscape of team building. So it’s only fair to also change the mindset about how front offices are married to their superstars.
How he and the Bucks respond could be informative. He turns 30 next month and is the oldest of the young superstars. He’s also the one who seems furthest away from a championship.
Giannis should stay in Milwaukee.
The same questions will eventually come about Luka Dončić or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jayson Tatum. Or Cooper Flagg from Duke. Or AJ Dybantsa from Utah Prep.
The collective bargaining agreement has no protections for drafting properly, meaning teams that do are counting down the days until they have to pay. Welcome to the life of Sam Presti. It seems executives, players and fans need to be emotionally prepared to sacrifice stars in the name of the CBA.
Of course it all depends on the situation. The performance of the stars. The financial strength of the owner. The flexibility of the schedule.
The obvious answer is for the Bucks to refocus around Antetokounmpo. With the longer lifespan of superstars and the way he takes care of himself, he should have at least five to six years of elite left in him. Maybe more.
But it’s also easier than ever, figuratively, to move on and still be okay. The impact of Parity makes it, figuratively speaking, more feasible for teams to restructure quickly. Because there isn’t an impossible juggernaut at the top of the league – the closest is Boston, which faces a similar cash crunch – the climb to the top is shorter. The penalty for having three maximum salaries increases the likelihood that top-level players will be available or hit the market.
Hard stances are easier for teams these days. Jimmy Butler doesn’t have max extension in Miami despite being the face of the franchise. Paul George is in Philadelphia and his former team doesn’t look worse in the long run.
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The salary explosion certainly makes ownership more difficult to look at. Is that No. 2 star really worth $40 million? Is #1 Really Worth $60 Million?
Those numbers won’t look as big if the new television deal raises the salary cap. But the sticker shock will still be there for the check signers.
At some point, maneuvering becomes difficult when such an albatross figure eats up so much of the salary cap. The Jazz considered moving on from Lauri Markkanen before signing him for the next four years at $48 million per year. The Suns will have three players making more than $50 million next season, which will put real championship pressure on Phoenix as the penalties for crossing the second platform loom.
This climate would make loyalty not so attractive. Lillard is a cautionary tale of loyalty to a fault. He spent years of his prime on a Portland Trail Blazers team that had no real chance at a title. Could he have a title if he was in Miami in 2023 when it faced the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals? We’ll never know because he was still driving for Portland.
Market size is less relevant in the modern media climate. The salary abolition of the new collective labor agreement makes staying at home less profitable. The league has deliberately increased the number of teams that are about to get serious. It’s a concoction that will certainly fertilize other grasses.
How long before Joel Embiid wants a fresh start? How long will Ja Morant settle for second fiddle if the Grizzlies don’t build a winner around him?
By stripping away the sentimentality and keeping it strictly basketball maneuvers, can the Bucks send their mainstay to Oklahoma City, which could offer by far the biggest reward of any team? No one can blame Antetokounmpo for wanting that.
Because what is also true about the age of equality is the ease with which you fall behind. Hopes for a ship can sail away as quickly as they dock if the league can reshuffle so smoothly. The right role player can lift a team into the mix, let alone an All-Star. How many teams can change their odds by adding Butler?
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Conversely, a team that was eyeing the come-up can suddenly seem distant. It was just two years ago that Sacramento and Memphis seemed like the future.
It’s early, but it looks like Milwaukee is falling behind. It’s always risky to jump to conclusions when there’s any Halloween candy left over (even though it’s candy corn that no one actually likes). Especially for a team that is missing a player as good as Middleton. But seasons have vibrations. Tones are set. Patterns start to develop. Antetokounmpo has already mentioned the team’s commitment.
One of the signs of chemistry and cohesion is production in the fourth quarter. And late in the games, Milwaukee seemed to stick together until the kids graduated high school.
Entering Monday, the Bucks were 25th in fourth-quarter scoring (26.2) and second-to-last in fourth-quarter offensive rating (105.6). Milwaukee has the fourth-worst offensive efficiency in the clutch, averaging just 89.3 points per 100 per possession of clutch time. Only the Chicago Bulls, Knicks and Thunder were worse — and Oklahoma City was so low because it’s usually frigid in the fourth quarter.
If the bottom line is that Dame and Giannis aren’t the takeover duo we thought they would be, that I was sure they would be, what’s the Bucks’ next move?
Giannis should stay in Milwaukee.
Because the reverse is also true. If it’s easier to rebuild in a league that frowns on hoarding superstars, it will be even easier with an anchor in place. The hardest piece to get is the largest.
Plus, we’ve seen this place where the NBA could go. With all markets in play and superstars more evenly distributed across the league, player movement could increase. A Game of Thrones-esque power shift.
While that certainly adds an element of excitement, the league constantly reshaping its competitive class, jerseys expiring faster than whole milk, sentimentality takes on its own value. Having a franchise pillar becomes more meaningful.
And since this is a company still fueled by superstar magnetism, there will always be something special about the players who go out with one house.
Of course, they may miss out on all-time great conversations because their trophy collections are limited by their team’s resources and their front office’s acumen. But they are among the most adored and respected people.
Giannis should stay in Milwaukee.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletics; photo of Giannis Antetokounmpo: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
