India
Government welcomes Trump back, Modi reminds him of good times – Times of India
Prime Minister Modi and Donald Trump (file photo)
“As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the comprehensive global and strategic partnership between India and the US. Let us work together for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity,” Modi said in a post on during his speech in India. visit in 2020.
According to former Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla, who was also India’s ambassador to the US during the previous Trump administration, his dramatic comeback is good news for India. “The Modi government has worked closely with him in the past and he also has a good relationship with the Prime Minister,” Shringla said, adding that Trump’s focus on ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza has also benefited India comes true.
Trump’s previous term saw strong strategic convergence with India, especially on issues such as counter-terrorism and Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. While some US partners in the region are concerned about his disdain for multilateralism and skeptical attitude towards alliances, India’s experience with Trump 1.0 instills confidence among Indian officials that he will pick up where he left off. It was under Trump that Quad was upgraded to the ministerial level and fundamental military agreements like BECA and COMCASA were signed with India. Significantly, it was also under Trump that the term Indo-Pacific, a euphemism to call out China for its expansionism, gained popularity. “You have to give Trump credit for his strategic vision. He introduced the term Indo-Pacific into the global lexicon by renaming it US Pacific Command to US Indo-Pacific Command,” Shringla said.
While the Biden administration has worked to advance the relationship, particularly with the groundbreaking Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), which aims to provide access to advanced defense technology for India, its efforts to put India in the dock have area of murder-for-hire plots in both Canada and the US, allegedly involving Indian officials, set a sour tone in the relationship.
The Pannun case will be pursued by the US, but it is unlikely to receive the same attention from Trump as it has from the Biden administration. It will also expect the Trump administration to better respond to its concerns regarding the anti-India activities of Khalistan separatists in both the US and Canada.
Trump’s victory also spares Indian officials the hassle of dealing with a relatively unknown quantity in Harris, who has likely not been as forgiving as Trump regarding India’s alleged human rights abuses and democratic backsliding. Harris angered the Indian government when she said in 2019 that there should be intervention in Kashmir if the situation demands it, although later, as vice president, she opted for a more pragmatic approach to controversial international issues.
However, India’s biggest concern with Trump will remain his transactional approach to trade and his likely restrictive immigration policies. Trump, who will look for ways to reduce the $30 billion trade deficit with India, had in 2019 terminated India’s preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preference (GSP), accusing the Indian government of not providing fair access to its markets to offer. However, Shringla is hopeful that the two sides will address trade issues by resuming negotiations on a free trade agreement. “We were at an advanced stage of negotiations with the Trump administration to find a solution in the form of a free trade agreement. There’s no reason why we can’t use the same playbook now,” he said, adding that Trump’s tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese imports have also helped India boost its exports.
With Republicans flipping the Senate and virtually no opposition for him within the Republican Party, Trump 2.0 is also likely to be more assertive and uncompromising. How he chooses to exercise his executive powers on US immigration policy, especially the H1B visa program, will also be closely watched by India. While Shringla says Trump will try to stop illegal immigration and streamline legal immigration, which will work in India’s favor, another former ambassador to the US, Arun K Singh, says stricter measures against H1B as in the past will work. “Given the shortage of skilled professionals in the US, it is in the interest of US companies to hire workers from India,” says Singh.