How a climate response influenced campaigns in Europe

Over the past five years, European Union leaders have tried to turn the 27 countries into global leaders on climate.

They made big strides. They enshrined in law an ambitious goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by more than half by 2030. They set a 2035 deadline for the sale of new, gas-guzzling cars. They raised the price that industries pay for greenhouse gas emissions.

But as voters went to the polls in recent days, Europe’s green credentials were put to a very different test.

There is widespread frustration over rising prices. Farmer groups have stormed European capitals to protest against proposals to curb agricultural pollution. The right wing is on the rise. The Greens, who won their largest share of seats in the 2019 European parliamentary elections, are now polling poorly.

If Europe loses its green groove, it could have far-reaching consequences, not only for European citizens and businesses, but also for the rest of the world. Europe is one of the biggest polluters in history.

“The stakes are high,” Laurence Tubiana, one of the key architects of the Paris climate agreement and now head of the European Climate Foundation, wrote in an email. “The gains of the past five years cannot be taken for granted.”

Here are five lessons we learned from the European elections.

The climate crisis has led to new crises.

In the 2019 elections, the European Greens won 10 percent of the seats in the 705-member parliament, making them a fighting force for the leading conservative European People’s Party.

At the time, the zeitgeist was green. Climate protesters filled the streets of European capitals, demanding action.

The European Union quickly adopted the European Green Deal, with a legally binding target to cut emissions by 55 percent by 2030, compared to 1990 levels.

Then three big things happened. A pandemic. Inflation. And the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Almost overnight, the war forced European countries to dump natural gas shipped through Russia, which had been a cheap source of electricity.

The bloc’s economic powerhouse, Germany, felt the impact acutely, so much so that the government’s efforts to accelerate the adoption of heat pumps became embroiled in the culture wars. Conservatives and right-wing politicians, backed by a populist press, railed against what the parties, somewhat wrongly, characterized as a ban on gas boilers. The government was forced to back down and modify its proposal.

But warming remained a problem.

Europe is warming faster than the global average. And the dangers are plain to see: fires in Greece, floods in Germany, crippling heat waves in Italy and Spain.

Polls show robust support for climate action, but also concerns about the costs and signs of what the impact will be European Council on Foreign Relationsa research organization, calls this a “growing green wave.” While people “want action on the climate crisis, they do not want to bear the significant costs of the green transition themselves,” the organization wrote in a recent analysis.

The vote will matter for years to come.

The immediate impact will impact the bloc’s 2040 emissions reduction targets.

Current proposals from the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, call for cuts of 90 percent by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. It is unclear what the next commission might support, especially as the next round of cuts is likely to bring changes will require that affect everyday life, such as home heating (hello, heat pump controversy) and transportation. Keep an eye on how the ban on the sale of new combustion cars in 2035 will play out.

Perhaps the most difficult question is what to do about agricultural emissions.

Farmers’ protests across Europe prompted the current government to drop proposals to limit agricultural pollution.

In addition to the European options for the transition to clean energy, choices are likely to be made in the United States and China. The Biden administration has showered green energy companies, from battery factories to carbon removal projects, with tax breaks. China exports cheap solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and electric vehicles worldwide.

Rystad Energy, a private firm that researches energy trends, pointed out that the roughly $125 billion the European Union has invested in clean energy technology will soon lag behind the United States.

Politicians colour the Green Deal.

The leading European People’s Party claims the Green Deal as its most important achievement, even as it rolls back unpopular provisions, such as on agriculture, in anticipation of the ballot box. It presents it as a way to break Europe’s dependence on Russia. “We have turned Putin’s challenge into a great new opportunity,” it said. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen said in January.

Further to the right, the European Conservatives and Reformists party has portrayed some of the Green Deal’s policies — setting aside land for restoration rather than farming, for example — as a matter of culture wars that they say unfairly targets farmers. They have promised to investigate what they call in their election manifesto the “more problematic objectives” of the Green Deal.

The Greens’ message to voters is that European companies need a clear signal that they can compete in the green industries of the future. “These elections will determine the future of European climate policy,” Bas Eickhout, a Green party leader, said by telephone. “If we stop now, it would be bad news for European industry.”

Changes have been ‘resilient’ (so far).

Much more renewable energy has come online, putting the European Union on track to get 70 percent of its electricity from wind and solar by 2030, according to E3G, a research group. European legislation is putting a price on climate pollution in several industries. And European automakers are going electric, albeit belatedly.

The Green Deal “has proven to be much stronger and more resilient as a political agenda than many thought,” said Pieter de Pous, an analyst at E3G, “but it now also faces some formidable political opponents, particularly from the far right.”

Christopher Schuetze and Matina Stevis-Gridneff contributed reporting.