How Biden’s Struggles Play a Role in Trump’s VP Selection

The uncertainty over whether President Biden will continue to seek re-election, despite his promises to stay in the race, has sharpened the focus on Donald J. Trump’s political calculations in choosing his Republican running mate.

Some people close to the former president have said privately that they now want him to focus more on a younger candidate or a person of color. The move could help thwart the possibility that someone like Kamala Harris, the first woman and the first woman of color to become vice president, could replace Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.

Such a scenario could help at least a couple of Trump’s leading candidates: Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, the second-youngest member of the Senate, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, whose Cuban-American background is central to his political biography.

But among those in Trump’s inner circle who believe Biden’s disastrous debate performance makes a Republican victory in November more likely, there’s another line of thinking: that Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota is now a stronger option. Mr. Burgum, another of Mr. Trump’s top contenders, has two terms in office and a long career as a businessman.

In any case, the countdown to Mr. Trump’s announcement has begun. His campaign has already parked a plane specifically for the Republican vice presidential nominee in an undisclosed hangar, awaiting Mr. Trump’s decision, according to a person familiar with the planning.

Expectations are also growing for Trump’s next two rallies.

One is scheduled for Tuesday at Mr. Trump’s estate in Doral, Florida, in Mr. Rubio’s home state of Miami-Dade. Mr. Trump has been pushing his team to hold a meeting at the Doral estate for nearly two years, when as president he pushed to hold the Group of 7 summit, until criticism from fellow Republicans convinced him to hold it elsewhere. Another is scheduled for next Saturday, July 13, in Butler, Pennsylvania, not far from the border with Mr. Vance’s home state of Ohio.

Trump’s reluctance to name a running mate in recent days stems in part from a desire to avoid distracting attention from the president as Biden faces calls from within the liberal establishment and the Democratic Party to step aside.

Scott Reed, a Republican strategist who played a central role in the process of selecting the running mate for former Sen. Bob Dole, the 1996 Republican presidential nominee, noted that Trump will have to make a choice soon, regardless of what Biden does. Trump’s pick will be formally nominated at the Republican National Convention, which begins July 15.

With that uncertainty, Mr. Reed said he would urge the former president to base the decision on who could best help him win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The trio of swing states are known as the “blue wall” because of the crucial role each plays in the electoral map for Democrats.

“At this point, Trump should be doing everything he can to climb the blue wall,” Reed said. “Burgum and Vance can help him in the Midwest, and that’s probably the new prism through which he looks for this decision. That’s exactly what I would do.”

For months, Trump has maintained that he did not weigh the political merits of his running mate candidates and has vowed that whoever he chooses will be ready to take over the White House if necessary.

For Trump, candidates who can raise money, who are disciplined during the campaign, who are unlikely to steal the president’s attention, and who would do well in a vice presidential debate are more important priorities.

Trump believes this year’s election will be decided by the names at the top of the list, a theory — rooted more in pragmatism than ego — that Biden and Trump are so well-known among voters that a running mate is unlikely to change that perception.

While that view is inherently tied to Biden staying in the race, another opponent may not have much impact on Trump’s vice presidential calculations. Polls have indicated that preventing the former president from winning a second term is a bigger priority for many Democratic voters than ensuring Biden is reelected.