How has the debate affected the race? No qualitative polls are available yet
It is too early to say what lasting impact last Thursday’s debate will have on the presidential election.
There are not enough polls published to date with a reliable history of accuracy and using the highest quality research methods to provide a clear picture of the national mood after the debate.
Most of the polls published to date are what are known as online polls with participationwho have a less established track record of historical accuracy. The New York Times polling average, which includes all polls but gives more weight to higher-quality polls, shows a slight decline in President Biden’s numbers since the debate.
It takes time for public opinion to coalesce around an issue. About 51 million Americans watched the debate live, but that number represents only a fraction of the voting population. Instead, many Americans engage with the debate by watching clips afterward, or through conversations with friends.
It also takes time to conduct high-quality polls, usually a minimum of four or five days. It takes time to reach people, especially key hard-to-reach groups such as younger voters or Hispanic voters without college degrees. Pollsters often have to make multiple attempts to contact respondents.
When we add it all up, it means it will take about a week – or longer – before a clearer picture emerges of how the debate played out for the American public.
