How many majors will Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm win? Predicting the future of golf in 2025, beyond

As the fall professional golf season continues and the sport remains out of season, now is a good time for The Athletics to dive into some broader debates and discussions about what we expect in 2025. Consider it an opportunity to participate in a golf discussion in the bar. If you have any topics or ideas you’d like to hear from our writers about, please suggest them in the comments.

This time we debate how many major championships some of the world’s best men’s golfers will win in their lifetimes. This is part 1. Next time we discuss Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and more.

Scottie Scheffler with 6.5 majors

Currently: 28 years old, two majors

Brody Miller: Below

I’m as high on Scheffler as anyone, but none other than Tiger Woods has made the leap to seven wins in the last four decades. Tom Watson was the last outside of Woods, winning eight from 1975 to 1983. Even Lee Trevino and Phil Mickelson at six each had big wins outside the norm at 44 and 50. Scheffler competes at a time with Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy , Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas (all with multiple majors) still in their contentious windows, plus many young golfers who are coming without them, such as Ludvig Åberg and Viktor Hovland. Golf is not the NBA, where you generally feel like the best team is and where stars come away with the title most years. Scheffler has been the undeniable best golfer in the world for about three years. He won two majors out of twelve. It’s really very difficult. Six would be one incredible performance.

Gabby Herzig: About

Of all the active players on the PGA Tour of LIV, Scheffler has the best chance to make a Tiger-like separation from the rest and win a historic number of majors for his generation. I’m not saying he’s going to win fifteen, but from what I see in the men’s professional game right now, he’s in the best spot to build an elite resume and specifically take advantage of the majors. I’m a big believer in Scheffler’s longevity as a player, his consistency in hitting the ball, his unique ability to overcome the toughest tests and his approach to improving his own game – he’s only focused on the basics. I don’t see that with other elite players. It’s not hard to imagine Scheffler winning two majors in one season, as Schauffele did this summer. After that, he would only have to win three more titles to reach the ‘over’. And he’s only 28 years old.

Brooks Koepka returned from injury to win the 2023 PGA Championship. (Warren Little/Getty Images)

Brooks Koepka o/u 6.5

Currently: 34 years old, five majors

Miller: Below

What do you think are the chances of Koepka winning another major: 40-60? 30-70? That is no small matter. If he wins another one, it won’t be a surprise, but it will further mark Koepka as one of the greatest competitors of the 21st century. Because he’s a 34-year-old golfer who makes a ton of money from LIV and who didn’t finish in the top 25 of a single major in 2024. It’s important to remember that even an elite golfer like Koepka goes into majors with an implied 8 percent to 10 percent chance of winning in his best stretches. Can he win two more? Certainly. He is different from normal golfers. It’s just a lot to ask.

Herzig: Below

Koepka is a killer in the major leagues, that is beyond doubt. But two more at 34 with a questionable knee? I can’t quite grasp it. Players go through peaks and valleys during their playing careers, and yes, Koepka is trying to climb back up. But since earning his fifth major at the 2023 PGA Championship, Koepka has one top-20 finish in the game’s most prestigious events. The LIV Golf schedule and format won’t be undergoing major renovations anytime soon, and right now it doesn’t appear to be improving the games of the best players (DeChambeau is the glaring exception). I don’t see Koepka rising enough in the coming years to win two more majors against the likes of Scheffler and Schauffele.

Jon Rahm’s 2023 Masters victory was his second major. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Jon Rahm from/u 3.5

Currently: 29 years old, two majors

Miller: over

Rahm had a very bad year in public perception. And he had a very frustrating year in the majors, with T45-CUT-WD-T7. But it would be a huge mistake to take that as reality. He remains one of the four best golfers in the world. He is still number 3 on DataGolf. And even if we admit that something was wrong in the spring (I suspect the public criticism got to him), Rahm was fantastic from June onwards. He finished seventh at the Open Championship, won two LIV events, should have won Olympic gold if not for a historic collapse, and completed a run of three consecutive top-seven finishes on the DP World Tour last month. The thing is, Rahm didn’t fall off. He’s not even 30 yet. Rahm comes in at five.

Herzig: About

My criticism of LIV from a competitive perspective still applies to Rahm. Although there were several factors, just look at the Spaniard’s tournament record in 2024 compared to 2023. But I still believe he has two more majors in him. He’s a young 29-year-old, he’s still in a new phase of his career, and as a Masters champion we already know his game is suited to the venue where men’s golf returns every year. I’m especially optimistic about Rahm’s ability to win another Masters. If Rahm can figure out how to take advantage of the LIV structure like DeChambeau has, he will make it happen.

GO DEEPER

Why Justin Thomas could be on his way to a comeback year in 2025

Cameron Smith joined LIV straight after his 2022 Open win and hasn’t been the same since. (Stuart Franklin/R&A via Getty Images)

Cameron Smith of 1.5

Currently: 31 years old, one major

Miller: over

Smith is going to win another weird major. I’ve never been so sure of anything. I’m willing to doubt that Smith will ever get back to that 2021-2022 run when he was one of the best golfers in the world. I’ve admitted that the go-with-the-flow fishing enthusiast has probably lost some fire with a $100+ million savings pot and a laid-back LIV lifestyle. All power to him. But even as his play declines, he has three top 10s in the last seven major starts. He always plays well at Augusta, a place where people can age gracefully. I’ll be shocked if Smith gets three majors. But I’ll be just as shocked if he doesn’t win another sloppy Open or Masters.

Herzig: Below

I’m going with the lower end because, logistically, Smith needs to turn things around pretty quickly if he wants to keep winning majors. He hasn’t won an event outside LIV since the Australian PGA Championship in November 2022, and T6-T-63-T32-MC wasn’t exactly a promising major performance in 2024. Smith is exempt from competing in The Open until he’s 60. years old, but unless the Australian produces some results in the coming years, his key shelf life is expiring. Smith is only exempt from the Masters, PGA and US Open through 2027. The clock is ticking for the 31-year-old to re-establish himself on the biggest stages.

Offseason wrist surgery puts Jordan Spieth’s future in jeopardy. (Tracy Wilcox/PGA Tour via Getty Images)

Jordan Spieth of 3.5

Currently: 31 years old, three majors

Miller: Below

I can’t be so cold and cynical about the rest and then be optimistic about Spieth. It would be an incredible sight if Spieth were to win another major. He remains the most popular golfer for many fans. He’s only 31 somehow, and maybe his wrist surgery will really get him back on track. Even this year at Valhalla, Pinehurst and Royal Troon he had good performances when he was in the mix. Spieth hasn’t been able to string together 72 holes for quite some time. It would be naive to expect him to reach the pinnacle of the sport again until we see it.

Herzig: Below

I really want to see another Spieth miracle. If anyone can pull off something that goes so far against expectations – even if it’s just a breakaway shot that weaves between three different trees, a pond and a bunker – it’s Spieth. But I worry about his wrist, I worry about the time he has spent on the PGA Tour board and I worry about the changes he has tried to make to his swing. Spieth’s majors era might be over, but I don’t think that means he won’t win anymore, period. If Spieth can get his body back on track, he will win more PGA Tour events. I just don’t think he can compete like Scheffler and Schauffele in the majors, especially with the physical and mental adversity he’s faced in recent seasons.

(Top photo of Scottie Scheffler: Andrew Redington / Getty Images)