How the Pac-12’s assault on the Mountain West is changing the balance of power in western basketball

The Mountain West has established itself as college basketball’s preeminent mid-major conference in recent years. San Diego State reached the national title game in 2023. The league placed six teams in the 2024 NCAA Tournament. While conference realignment caused chaos, the Mountain West’s stability put it on a level of its own, surpassing the American 10 and Atlantic 10 as the best mid-major league in college basketball. It was also the best late-night hoops to watch, even surpassing the Pac-12 in watchability.

And now it’s like all the others, thrown into chaos by football and greed.

The only good news from a basketball perspective is that the new Six Pac makes sense (for now) when it comes to geography, as San Diego State, Colorado State, Boise State and Fresno State join Oregon State and Washington State. The two remaining Pac-12 teams are trying to revitalize their brands.

To borrow a term from the basketball team, this league is a mid-table football contender, but the four newcomers from the Mountain West could justify the move on the basketball court and give the new Pac-12 a chance to establish itself as more than just a College Football Playoff contender.

San Diego State, Colorado State and Boise State were all top-tier Mountain West basketball programs, and their ability to consistently reach the NCAA Tournament could improve if the Pac-12 decides to take additional steps with basketball in mind. Luring Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference in particular would solidify the competition as a top-six basketball conference. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has flirted with Gonzaga for the past two years and hasn’t been able to convince enough of his membership that adding a basketball-only affiliate is beneficial. But the Pac-12 needs numbers and brand recognition.

GALLING DEEPER

Is ACC vulnerable or just fine (for now) now that the conference is being rescheduled?

The Pac-12 must reach at least eight football-playing schools by 2026 to be recognized as an NCAA and Football Bowl Subdivision conference and for its champion to earn one of five automatic bids to the 12-team College Football Playoff. To create an eight-game conference schedule that matches its FBS counterparts, it would need to reach at least nine members. In basketball, 10 teams is the sweet spot for round-robin scheduling, especially if you can avoid a poor bottom tier — that’s why the Big 12 has performed so well in computer-based statistics for so many years. Getting rid of the Mountain West’s basement teams could help the future resumes of the Aztecs, Rams and Broncos. Two games against Gonzaga each year certainly wouldn’t hurt, either.

The Pac-12 needs to be as picky as possible about which G5 schools it pursues. (Our Chris Vannini has outlined the possible options. ) Let’s say the league’s best-case scenario is to add two G5 schools with recent football success — say, Memphis and Tulane from the Americana. From there, it would make sense to pursue another basketball-only member and continue to lean into the basketball branding. Attracting those schools might be easier than finding a bunch of football schools to jump on. Among those possible options:

• Saint Mary: The Gaels, Gonzaga’s main WCC rival, have reached 10 of the last 19 NCAA Tournaments.
• Great Gap: The Antelopes will join the WCC in 2025, have a strong financial foothold in basketball, play in one of the best environments in the country and have reached three of the last four NCAA Tournaments under Bryce Drew. And if Gonzaga leaves, the WCC doesn’t look like a very attractive landing spot for Grand Canyon. Adding the Antelopes would also give the Pac-12 a foothold in the Phoenix market after losing Arizona and Arizona State.
• State of Wichita: Memphis’ departure would be another blow to an AAC basketball brand already in decline after losing Houston and Cincinnati. Wichita State would likely jump at the chance to play in the same league as Gonzaga; the Shockers not long ago saw themselves as the Gonzaga of the Midwest.

A Pac-12 with Gonzaga plus some combination of those other additions would yield multiple NCAA Tournament bids every year. The current Mountain West has been the seventh-best league in college basketball for the past two years, with four teams in the field in 2023 before jumping to six last year.

GALLING DEEPER

Which schools could the new Pac-12 target? UNLV, Wyoming, Tulane, Memphis and many others

As for what’s left of the Mountain West, the conference needs to retain eight members to keep its FBS status intact, and it’s possible some of the remaining schools could still leave. (UNLV seems like an ideal target for the Pac-12, though it could be tough to separate from college system affiliate Nevada.) Adding New Mexico State would make sense for the Mountain West, since the Aggies are already rivals of New Mexico and in the region. Of course, logic and convenience have rarely played a role in the redistricting circus, and even the most practical solutions to rebuild the college basketball product around historic rivalries and geography feel like fantasy to basketball fans.

The sport still wields some clout when it comes to television negotiations. The Big 12 and Big East have done well to build stronger basketball leagues — Yormark has publicly touted the potential to sell its league’s football and basketball rights as separate television deals when the Big 12’s current rights deal expires at the end of the decade. The Big East signed a new deal with Fox, NBC and TNT this summer that runs from 2025-26 to 2030-31.

And while the ACC and Big 12 are financially below the Big Ten and SEC in football, they still enjoy a somewhat equal footing in basketball. There’s the Big East, too. This new Pac-12 may not be up there with the big four in football, but add a top-10 basketball program in Gonzaga and you might earn that coveted high-major tag, or at least come closer than the old Mountain West.

Gonzaga has done a fine job dominating the WCC, but it also loves money. The temptation to add a few million more dollars to its NCAA Tournament pool each year has made Gonzaga’s eventual exit from the WCC inevitable. After plundering one of the most interesting basketball conferences in the country and setting off another round of redistricting dominoes, the Pac-12 has a chance to improve its own reputation on the hardwood. In the Mountain West, meanwhile, it’s now a matter of survival.

(Photo: James Snook/USA Today)