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With just over a month to go before Anthony Albanese is expected to shoot the starter's gun for the federal election campaign, I call it.
Labor will win and Albo will be returned as Prime Minister.
I expect that it will be a minority government, certainly depending on the support of the Greens, maybe a few tests, depending on how the seats fall.
Albo will be officially re -elected for a second term, but he will not last so much longer in the top track.
Whether it is the allure of the sunny coastline of Copacabana, where the prime minister recently bought a pension home of $ 4.3 million, or his steadily falling personal assessments that encourage colleagues to move against him, it is hard to imagine that He a full second term that occupies the lodge.
He will be 62 years old when he announces the date for this year's elections, and many of Albo's colleagues think he has already got a foothold.
Nevertheless, I predict a worker victory in an election that will probably be held on April 12.
This is why my money is being won, despite the fading support of the prime minister and a long list of problems during the first term of the government …
Peter van Onselen predicts that Anthony Albanese will win the federal elections of 2025 – with a minority government – but will not see the term
1# Winning the seats that matter is difficult for the coalition
While New Year's Opinion polls place the coalition for the preferred voice of two parties, and the primary mood of Labor is rolling in the 1920s, there are only about two dozen seats that really determine the election results.
To have the coalition in the box seat to beat work – by winning more seats, allowing the first rights to change with the crossbench minority Government – It has to pick up at least 10 works.
If the coalition wants to form majority The government has to win a total of almost 20 new seats, which, according to the election spinning, would require a swing of six percent nationally.
To make that happen, the coalition should win almost 54 percent of the voice of two parties. Recent polls respectively set the voice and 51 and 52 percent, and that is well before the campaign (and Scare Campaigns) gets going, where we will come later.
The real struggle is about which party the minority government is, and with this challenge work is the favorite, despite the gambling markets that suggest that the coalition will win earlier.
It is difficult to see that work in itself retains a majority. If they lose two seats, all disappears immediately from sight. Albo will certainly lose more seats than that. But he can afford it.
De Groenen will never support a minority government led by Peter Dutton. Nor will Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie. There are other independent people who support more often work than the coalition, including some tests.
The will of Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan and Zali Steggall are all tests that Dutton would probably not support as a PM, which means that Albo could probably comfortably trust the undecided.
That means that the share of Labor in the 150 lower seats that are disputed can fall to 67 or 68 before you can start writing them off because you have lost the elections.
2# The government will probably be the most important marginal seats in sandbags
Although it is quite possible that a national relocation of the work sees its voice fall considerably in the elections, it is likely that many of his marginal chair members succeed in taking that trend and holding it.
Daily Mail Australia has already reported on local candidates for labor who wanted Albo and his poisonous unpopularity would immediately stay with their seats. As the elections get closer, the operating elements on the movements of the PM increase. They will increasingly be determined by internal polling.
Just watch while giving a number of closely fed seats a wide berth, in the full knowledge that popular local Labor MPs must be able to stick to the support of the local community, even though the Labor government is on the nose.
Governments have long been better in this strategy than oppositions, benefit from their resource benefit and the name recognition of sitting parliamentary members. This Labor government will not be different.
Despite the misery of Labor in Victoria, even the most risky seats margins have above three percent. In fact, there are only four labor held at the national level at the margins below two percent. In comparison with eight coalition that kept seats on margins of less than two percent.
Do not be surprised if Labor is able to grab a chair or two of the coalition in the upcoming elections, which massively contributes to the degree of difficulty for the opposition to win.
3#: The liberals have a problem in West -Australia
Although WA is usually a conservative state, the liberal brand in the West is currently in the toilet. The State Party will lose the state elections in a different landslide on 8 March. Federal The last elections saw an abundance of chair shifting and go Labor's way.
Unlike other parts of the country, the voice of Labor from 2022 keeps in the west. And the economy remains more robust than elsewhere, which means that the costs of life crunch do not hurt work in WA as it is in other parts of the country.
This is a big problem for Dutton and the liberals. They cannot afford to have Labor hold on in WA chairs such as Tangney, Swan, Pearce and Hasluck.
Liberal fighting in the seat of Moore has seen the local MP Ian Goodenough defeated in pre-selection and announced that he will run as an independent, perhaps even prefer the liberal candidate. Liberals hold the chair by less than one percent.
When Albo is launching its campaign in WA and works hard to convince the locals, he deserves a different term, the parochial citizens of WA can tap the elections in favor of Labor.
Albo may not be popular, but Peter Dutton is a man of one man under the coalition
4#: The Aussie 'Fair Go' Principle is Albo in favor
Whatever the challenges (and disappointment) of Labor's first power period, the Aussie ethos lends itself to second opportunities. That is one of the reasons why no first government government has not succeeded in obtaining a re -election since 1931.
Chances are that Albo will repeat history and scrap home in the elections, deteriorated by enough voters who decide to give him a last chance to lift his play. All bets were then switched off.
Enough voters can also worry about it so quickly after removing Scott Morrison. Towards the end he was deeply unpopular, and voters may want to punish the coalition by leaving them in the political wilderness for more than one term.
5# Albo is not popular – but Dutton is a man with one man
Although Labor Albo may want to hide now and then, the opposition leader is one as soon as the campaign has started.
The lack of front bench -depth on the coalition side is a problem for Dutton. A reason for voters to choose Baulk to choose them so quickly after they have kicked them out of power.
Some important retirement of political life to the coalition side has not helped the problems with a lack of front bench talent.
Senate leader Simon Birmingham, manager of opposition company in the Huis Paul Fletcher and Senior Nationals Shadow Cabinet -Member Keith Pitt have all announced that they are retiring in the elections.
None of the perception of this helps that Dutton is a solo law.
Because work is in the government, the perception is that it has more depth on the front bench than the opposition.
6# and just wait for Labor's scare campaign to take action
Although Labor has had a few cracks to become negative on Dutton and the coalition, it is only when the campaign starts correctly that the effectiveness of such negative tactics will bear fruit.
Experts always say that negative political campaigns are not popular, but they are effective. Labor has a lot that it is planning to focus: Dutton's nuclear policy, the risks that liberal cuts will make life more difficult, claims that Dutton is planning to provide supporting services such as Medicare.
Political attack advertisements do not have to be accurate to be effective. In 2016, Bill Shorts Scandalious False Mediscare Campaign against Malcolm Turnbull almost removed the majority of the coalition.
I expect Labor Groot to spend on his attack advertisements. To perform ministers to really go into Dutton personally to frighten enough voters to think twice about making him PM. And nuclear policy will be attacked both economically and ecologically.
None of these attacks will do enough to move votes from the opposition, but together they will have an impact in a narrow race.
Combined with all the aforementioned factors, it occurs when winning work, even if the victory is close by and ugly.
So there you have it …
Despite the gambling markets and the pollsters who all prefer a victory in Dutton, and despite the personal support of Albo, I still expect Labor to fall over the election line in the coming months.
And if the interest rates fall in February or in what could be the last full week of the campaign at the beginning of April, it will only help to scrape work over the line.
A lot can change during a campaign, when voters really start to pay attention.
The largest thing I expect to change when that happens is that they stick to the devil they know and return a very damaged labor administration.
If they actually vote, enough of the work electorate will give a chance – too nervous about risking a shift to Dutton and the liberals at the moment.
