The Commonwealth Bank predicts that the Australian house prices will fall in early 2025, even if the interest rates are lowered before they return later in the year.
The house prices last month fell in Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart, with the values of the capital that have no growth for three consecutive months, Corelogic data was evident.
Gareth Ard, the head of the Commonwealth Bank of the Australian Economy, expects house prices to fall in the first half of 2025, although he predicts that the reserve Bank of Australia will lower the rates in February.
“It is not unusual to see some fatigue crawling in the national housing market Given the affordability remains stretched on most conventional statistics,” he said.
'We do not expect that real estate prices in Sydney and Melbourne will suddenly shift higher as the rates are lowered, since there are many more advertised shares on the market compared to a year ago.
“Advertised stock levels are well above the five -year average for this time of year in Sydney and Melbourne.”
The Commonwealth Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the interest rates in February, which would mark the first relaxation since November 2020.
But CBA also expects four cuts in 2025 in 2025, which would see house prices fall in the first half of this year before they rise in the second half for a total annual increase of four percent.
The Commonwealth Bank predicts that the Australian house prices will fall in early 2025, even if the interest rates are lowered
“The prices will probably remain lower in the first half of 2025, before lifting over the second half of the year, because the loan capacity is increasing as a result of lower mortgage interest,” Mr Aird said.
Australia is a housing market with two gears with prices that fall in Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart and Canberra in January, but still increases in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin.
Corelogic's research director Tim Lawless said that every national decline would probably be short -lived.
“Lower mortgage interest rate and a subsequent lift in the loan capacity and a bottom offer of newly built homes could be the foundations for a relatively shallow home decline,” he said.
But house prices would probably not rise as in 2023 and early 2024, because the immigration delayed record -high levels above 500,000 a year.
“The relaxation cycle for interest rates is probably gradual, and we also have the constant headwind of affordability restrictions, the normalization of population growth and generally soft economic conditions to contend,” he said.
“All in all, the chance of a considerable growth cycle remains low during the coming year.”
Sydney's median house price fell by 0.4 percent to $ 1,474 million last month.
Gareth Ard, the head of the Commonwealth Bank of the Australian Economy, expects house prices to fall in the first half of 2025, although he expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the rates in February (depicted houses in Brisbane)
In Melbourne they fell by 0.5 percent to $ 917.132 with house prices 3.5 percent weaker compared to a year ago as a result of the $ 975 investor tax of the Victorian government.
Hobart prices fell by 0.2 percent to $ 698,345 because the values of Canberra fall 0.4 percent to $ 968,907.
But they still went up in Brisbane, where interstate migration is still strong.
The mid-point house price of the Queensland Capital rose by 0.3 percent in January to $ 977,343, making it the second most expensive Australia market after Sydney.
Adelaide had the largest monthly increase from 0.7 percent to $ 872,553 because the prices of Perth were 0.3 percent up to $ 843,805.
Darwin, the cheapest housing market in Australia, had an increase from 0.6 percent to $ 582,971.
The prices from the capital city to General Last month fell by 0.2 percent to $ 1.01 million, but regional prices rose by 0.4 percent to $ 670,346, which is feasible for someone who earned a slightly above average salary of $ 103,000 .
Mr. Lawless said that more affordable regional markets benefited from the work and at home schemes.
“Regional markets seem to benefit from a second wind of internal migration, along with an affordability benefit in some markets, and what seems to be a permanence in hybrid work regulations in some professions and industries,” he said.
