Being wiped away by a huge space stone that touches the earth at thousands of kilometers per hour, may sound like a plot that is worthy of a Hollywood film.
But a newly discovered space stone, called 2024 JR4, is really on a collision course with the earth.
Only discovered at the end of last year, 2024 JR4 is somewhere between 130 and 300 ft (40 to 90 meters) in diameter – so probably larger than the statue of liberty.
Last week, scientists upgraded the risk that 2024 JR4 will hit the earth to 1-on-43 (2.3 percent), with an impact date of 22 December 2032.
Now, in a hair -raising update about X, a scientist says that we 'may not stop with 2024 JR4' to hit the earth, not even with a deflection mission.
Dr. Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist and author based in London, points out that we have less than eight years to possibly deal with it. ”
“You need 10 years or more to build, plan and execute an asteroid bending mission,” he said.
“We don't have much time.”
Scientists are currently predicting that the 90 meters wide (300 feet) Asteroid 2024 JR4 has a chance on 43 to hit the earth in 2032. If this is the case, the widespread damage to a populated area would cause
Dr. Robin George Andrews, a volcanologist and author based in London, says: 'We may not be able to stop 2024 JR4'
NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (Dart) mission, certainly one of the greatest performance ever, demonstrated how a space rock could possibly be thrown from a collision course with the earth by crashing a spacecraft.
The Dart spacecraft was launched from California in November 2021 and completed its 10-month journey when it hit the asteroid Dimorphos on 26 September 2022.
Dimorfos, about 560 feet in diameter, runs a larger asteroid called Didymos, both about 6.8 million miles away from our planet.
The collision shortened the Dimorphos court with more than half an hour – making it an even greater success than NASA expected.
Neither Dimorfos nor his Didymos, however, were some danger to the earth; Instead, Dart was rehearsing what could be needed if a space rock threatens our planet one day.
Although he acknowledged that dart “did wonders,” said Dr. Andrews that we 'may not have been able to stop 2024 JR4' in a similar way.
“It does not mean that we can use kinetic effects to bend an asteroid when we want,” he said.
“So much could go wrong if we try to touch it with something like Dart.”
On average, the earth is hit every 5000 years by a rock with football pitch and a civilization-ending asteroid every million years, according to NASA's near-earth object program
NASA has already achieved a hugely important milestone with the Dart Asteroid Deflection Mission. In September 2022, the Dart -Space Varitage was deliberately crashed in Dimorfos, an asteroid 6.8 million miles away
The Dimorphos Space Rock is depicted here as seen by the Dart -Space Deputy 11 seconds before Impact
Most asteroids are not a solid rock but 'debris posts' – clusters of loose boulders, stones and sand held together by the weak mutual gravity of space.
At the moment we do not know the exact size of 2024 JR4, or even if it is also a rubble stack asteroid – but touching messes with a spacecraft such as dart may generate a cloud of rubble that could go to earth.
“Nobody wants to” disrupt an asteroid “disrupt it,” because those components can still go to earth, “Dr. Andrews.
There is also the chance that a huge space effort that looks like Dart would not even change the path of the asteroid.
“With just a few years later we were able to bend it by accident – but not enough to avoid the planet,” the expert added.
“Then it still touches the earth, just somewhere else that would not be touched.”
He added: 'I am not saying that a kinetic impactors mission or missions could not work.
“But we don't have much time, and we don't have enough information about this quickly fading asteroid to properly inform our planetary defense decisions.”
NASA's very first 'Planetary Defense' spacecraft – sent to declare an asteroid 6.8 million miles off the earth – hit his target on Monday 26 September 2022
Asteroid 2024 -JR4 is about the same size as the asteroid of Tunguska, which caused the greatest impact event in the registered history when it shot through the atmosphere of the earth in 1908, flattening of 830 square miles (2,150 square km) forest (depicted)
It is worth remembering that 2024 JR4 has a 1-on-43 (2.3 percent) chance to influence the earth on December 2032.
Dr. Andrews emphasized 'The opportunities of an impact remain low', where the situation was compared to having 43 buttons for you and is asked to press one of them.
“I don't think you should worry,” he said in a corresponding blog post.
“When more observations arrive, it is likely that the impact opportunities will fall to zero, because the lane of the asteroid is defined more accurately.”
If the impact point is in the middle of a desert or in the ocean, it will 'not harm anyone', but if it touches a city or city, it will destroy a lot of it.
On average, the earth is hit every 5000 years by a rock with football pitch and a civilization-ending asteroid every million years, according to NASA's near-earth object program.
Last year a NASA report showed that we were poorly prepared for an asteroid collision, even if we have detected the object 14 years in advance.
It is thought that Asteroid 2024 -JR4 is at least the same size as the Tunguska -Sasteroid -which, according to NASA, had an estimated diameter of 130 feet.
Tunguska caused the greatest impact event in the registered history when it shot through the atmosphere of the earth in 1908, so that 830 square miles (2,150 square km) forest was flattened.
Many lost consciousness and at least three people died as a direct consequence of the Tunguska event, according to a study of 2019.
