The enormous amount that Europe should spend to protect itself against Russia without the US's support has been revealed.
For decades, Europe has been trusting in the United States as NATO's backbone, and trusting that Washington would always be there to scare threats and, if necessary, defend the continent.
But as doubts about the long -term obligation of America, as a hard new analysis have exposed the stunning costs and requires that Europe would be confronted if it were forced to stand against Russia alone.
The report, published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Brussel Research Institute based in Brussels, paints a grim image – that the financial burden of his military transformation would be enormous.
The study estimates that the EU and its Member States must increase defense expenditure by an additional € 250 billion per year – increasing the total military spending of the current 2 percent of GDP to at least 3.5 to 4 percent.
For Germany alone, this would mean that the defense budget will be increased from € 80 billion to € 140 billion – an unprecedented amount in modern European history.
Although these figures may seem daunting, one of the authors of the study claims Guntram Wolff claims that they are still 'much less than what was spent on the COVID Pandemie'.
But without the US's support, Europe would need a huge military structure that require an extension of its forces, huge new weapons stocks and a huge boost in defense expenditure.
Ukrainian soldiers on the artillery position in a non -ethic area in the front line of adiivka is preparing for the D 30 -gun while the war between Russia and Ukraine continues in adiivka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on 13 March 2024
Soldiers of the German Bundeswehr perform military exercises
French soldiers ride a French Leclerc tank after they crossed the Vistula River during the Dragon-24 NATO military defense exercises on March 5, 2024
According to Wolff and the second author Alexandr Burilkov, Europe should raise another 300,000 troops – a discouraging challenge given that countries such as Germany already have difficulty achieving existing recruitment goals.
For example, the German Bundeswehr has not been able to fill more than 20,000 vacancies for years.
Moreover, Europe should make around 50 new brigades, with at least 1,400 main combat tanks and 2,000 infantry combat vehicles – more than the combined stock of Germany, France, Italy and the landmakers of Great Britain today.
And it wouldn't stop there. The continent should also produce around 2,000 long -distance drones every year to match the growing possibilities of Russia.
Wolff also gave a Stark -warning: despite his heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia has considerably strengthened its army in recent years and may be able to attack the EU states within the next three to ten years.
An important challenge that is emphasized by the study is the fragmentation of the European forces.
In contrast to the US, which operates a single, united army, the European defense is spread over 28 different national forces, creating inefficiencies and logistical obstacles.
The report warns that 'self -insurance' would be much more expensive than the current collective security model of NATO.
In order to close these gaps, the authors claim that Europe must embrace joint military purchasing and more cooperation, possibly even finishes defense investments through shared EU debt.
British soldiers are in armored vehicles while crossing the Vistula River during the Dragon-24 NATO military defense exercises
A Germany Army Leopard 2A6 tank takes part in a NATO -Military exercise during a training range in Pabrade, Lithuania
Such a movement, she suggests, could serve as an economic stimulus, which strengthens the industrial basis of Europe and prepares for future threats.
With the geopolitical landscape shift and the dedication of America, the report makes one thing clear: Europe must urgently decide whether it is willing to defend itself alone.
The stunning figures come as concern that US President Donald Trump could withdraw from NATO has led to the fear or forces of Europe could resist an attack from Russia without American support.
Trump has not yet discussed the possibility of an American withdrawal from the Western guided safety block, but former American ambassador at the United Nations John Bolton told LBC last week that such a scenario is 'very likely'.
Currently, 23 of the 32 NATO countries achieve the agreed target to spend at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense.
But Trump has suggested that this figure must be increased to 5 percent, while his vice president JD Vance repeated expectations for European NATO this week to manage their own safety without an American security blanket.
Bolton said that setting such high goals of the Defense spending was an example of setting Trump conditions that 'will' justify a withdrawal from NATO.
A US Army M1A2 Sep V2 Tank will participate in a training exercise with international allies in Germany earlier this month
A Swedish artillery team takes a projectile from a self-driving Houwitser of a archer during the NATO exercise lightning attack 'on November 20, 2024 near Heinu, Finland
'In a year in which it does not happen, Trump will be able to say that NATO is just as worthless as I always said. I'm going out, “said Bolton, before I add” that you will miss us when we are gone! '
The 32 countries of the Alliance have a combined military budget of more than $ 1 trillion, more than three million active staff, around three million reserve staff and more than 700,000 troops in paramilitary troops.
In addition to manpower, NATO countries also have more than 14,000 tanks in their arsenals and tens of thousands of more combat vehicles, 21,000 military planes and nearly 2,000 naval ships.
The Secretary General of NATO is already urging European members, including Great -Britain, to increase expenses in accordance with American desires.
Responding to demands from Donald Trump to pay Europe for his own safety, Mark Rutte said that members who commit around 2% of GDP to go to 'north of 3%'.
An increase in the investment of the armed forces such as this would cost the British treasury dozens of billions of pounds about this parliament.
Great Britain is also expected to deliver 10,000 to 15,000 troops for each post-conflict Ukrainian stabilization power, which would cost an estimated £ 3 billion to £ 4 billion a year.
Great -Britain currently spends 2.3 percent on the defense, where work is confronted with a call for this.
