Germany waved dramatically to the right in yesterday's general elections, with the Christian Democrats (CDU)-yet always mainstream center rights but now more conservative than in the day of Angela Merkel-op first place with just under 29 percent of the votes (according to EXIT surveys and close early results).
The radical-right insurgents, alternative to Germany (AfD), doubled their part of the vote to get a clear second by more than 20 percent.
The prevailing social democrats (the SPD, Germany's equivalent of our Labor Party) at the head of a motionless center on the left coalition for four years and in power for 23 of the last 27 years of being ignorant thrown away, and won only 16 per Centers of the votes, then ten percentage points and their worst result since the Federal Republic of the axis of the Second World War.
Their Green Coalition partners did even worse with part of the vote of 13.5 percent.
For years it was advertised as the most important and resulting general elections, not only for Germany, but also for Europe.
On the surface it seems that it has realized its invoicing. In a huge turnout of 84 percent, half of the Germans voted for the two main parties of law, one of which is about to. But scratch that surface and it is not clear how much will really change.
The departing coalition, led by the mediocre Olaf Scholz of the SPD, was fractious and directionless. As a result, there was paralysis in Berlin and Drift in Brussels.
The German economy is in a terrible state. It has fallen two years in a row, with industrial production 15 percent under pre-buildings, the totemic car manufacturers in crisis.
The AFD alternative for Deutschland-conducted by Alice Weidel (photo), doubled his elections from 2021 with an impressive 20 percent-the strongest show for a hard-right party since the Second World War
CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who will be the next Chancellor (to replace Olaf Scholz), 'won' only in the sense that he and his Bavarian allies (the Christian Social Union) were given the largest share of the mood
There is also a crying need for the European Union to show some grit and leadership at a time when the Pax Americana, who has protected Europe's safety for generations, is dismantled by Donald Trump. That can only happen with a strong Germany.
So the need for radical change is clear. But the CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who will be the next Chancellor (an improvement from Scholz but he will not set the Heather), 'won' only in the sense that he and his Bavarian allies (the Christian Social Union) received The majority of the votes.
But not nearly enough to form a working majority in the Bundestag, the German house of Commons.
For that he will have to build his own coalition. The arithmetic points to a deal with the other main party of law, the AfD.
But it is considered by all mainstream parties as outside the pale. So Merz will have to look for another partner – most likely the Social – Democrats, minus Scholz, who will become soon. Last night, early projections gave a CDU/CSU-S-SPD coalition a slim majority in the 630-person Bundestag. But it shrinks as the night progressed.
So the party that has just crashed and burned in yesterday's elections and that in most other democracies would be sent to the political wilderness to lick his wounds, could still agree when a new coalition appears. Not good. Trump and Putin will be delighted.
The trial will probably last for weeks-to leave a vacuum in the most important country in Europe during a continent crisis.
It is a curious grill – it can be better described as a systemic error – of the proportional voting system of Germany, much loved by the classes of Great Britain, that you can vote for change, but not many changes.
PR could work if you are successful and all you have to do is tinker. But not when you need difficult decisions to return.
Merz campaigned on tax cuts to Pep the sclerotic German economy, a more determined attempt to rebuild the hollowed -out military, more enthusiastic support for Ukraine and an energy policy of the country and a little less green.
Friedrich Merz (center, with microphone) celebrates with his party, but will have to form a coalition
In reality, it was a modest, non -ambitarian platform for power. Yet he will now have to water further to bring the social democrats on board.
In the meantime, the AfD will wait for its time. It will be the de facto opposition in the Bundestag with around 150 seats. If the new coalition turns out to be just as little inspiring as the outgoing, the ATD's chance of power can still come, this election is an staging post.
The Germans voted for change because they wanted to reverse the economic decline of the country, grabbed his limits after too much uncontrolled immigration, again armed to go with a revanchist Russia in the east and to end the green energy obsession it has Led to increasing household fuel accounts and decimated are once world -famous heavy industry.
Merz, who never held the ministerial office at the age of 69, is probably unable to implement the radical reforms that are needed to do that. Neither has he ever shown a lot of interest in the EU, so it is unlikely that leadership is also necessary.
But Merz knows that the world is changing. He was even encouraged, while America's attention goes to the Pacific Ocean, Germany, which comes under the protection of the nuclear umbrella of Great Britain. We should not exclude it. But we may want to insist that the vengeful post-Brexit sentences of the EU finish first.
