For the first time in a long time, Tory and Labor MPs are happy.
“I always knew that there was a reform split,” a conservative shadow minister told me. “It was just a matter of time.”
A backbencher from Labor in a marginal chair with a red wall was even more ecstatic. “They implode!” He explained triumphantly. “This can save many of us.”
I hate to break it up to him. It won't.
The explosion of the battle within the reform, in which one of his MPs, Rupert Lowe, has reported to the metropolitan police for 'verbal threats', has dominated the headlines and generated undisputed joy among the political opponents of the party. The suspension of Lowe has also had the practical effect to immediately beat Nigel Farage's parliamentary representation by 20 percent.
But although the 'civil war' reform may be a glorious unreasonable spectacle for Westminster Watchers, the political implications will not prove to be particularly long -term. Because in the end there can only be one winner.
Everyone knows that the charges against Lowe are a red herring. What is really in the heart of the schism is partly a collision of personalities and egos. But also – and this is why the outcome was ultimately determined in advance – a fundamental distribution about what reform should be and who should represent it.
Two tribes have come together on social media. Lowe's allies have been vocal and active and protest that their husbands have been the victim of a cruel and calculated smear. The Farage supporters have hit back and say that he had no choice and the correct internal procedures had to be followed.
Reform MP Rupert Lowe has been reported to the metropolitan police for 'verbal threats', which has reduced the parliamentary representation of Nigel Farage by 20 percent
It doesn't matter. Only one voice is heard in the country.
As it or hatred, in the eyes of the British people, Nigel Farage is reform. Or rather, Reform is Nigel Farage.
Ukip. The Brexit party. The vehicle is not particularly relevant. What people respond to is Farage's related, right-talking, regular in-the-snug persona. The color of his rosette is not relevant.
And that reality is what Rupert Lowe's nose has put out of joint. Lowe is that classic type of man who is a legend in his own living room. A former chairman of Southampton Football Club who had an immediate impact by supervising the departure of club icon Lawrie McMenemy, he was without success for the parliament in 1997, and at the Kingswood election in 2024, before he was finally returned to the Parliament of Nigel Farage's Coattails.
At what point his head was turned by Elon Musk. A spit between Farage and Musk saw the ketamine-driven tech-bro-tweet 'I did not meet Rupert Lowe, but his statements I have read so far are very logical'. Lowe responded to his leader with a lukewarm expression of loyalty.
A lukewarm rapprochement that didn't last long. In an interview with the Daily Mail's Andrew Pierce last week Lowe slid into the knife. 'It's too early to know if Nigel will deliver the goods. He can only deliver if he surrounds himself with the right people, “he explained Archly. “He has messianic qualities. Will those Messianic qualities mean the distinguishing of wise leadership? Don't know.'
In the days after his suspension, Lowe is wandering on social media, noisily protesting against his private treatment. But the truth is that his comments were a direct challenge for the Nigel Farage authority. And Farage had little choice but to respond.
Just as he has little choice about his response to the broader attack on his leadership of reform. Farage is aware that he is a polarizing figure. And since his historical breakthrough in the last elections, he has formed the view that, in order to bring his party to the next level, he will have to professionalize and modernize his operation.
As or hate it, in the eyes of the British people, Nigel Farage is reform, writes Hodges. Or rather, Reform is Nigel Farage
To this end, he started to distance themselves from some of the more toxic and extreme elements that have tried to increase the banner of the reform. In a recent interview, he explained that it would simply not be political to set up mass deportations of migrants as some evoke. In another he warned against 'politically alienating Islam'. And he has repeatedly pushed back on those who want him to embrace the prisoner Thug Tommy Robinson.
All this has led to the recoil that the 'Civil War' reform actually supports. In reality it is a proxy war. One in which the allies of Tommy Robinson try to use their presence on X while he is hired by his man-child to force Farage to assume increasingly extreme positions, or force him. Lowe is just their useful idiot.
Yet there is no prospect that they succeed. For the very simple reason that the voters do not allow it.
Reform is currently leading the Tories and the labor participations challenged the national opinion polls, on average about 23 percent of the votes. Their support has been hit as a result of Farage's unwise Dalliance with Donald Trump. But disillusion with the two most important parties is still raw. And reform remains on track to make a big profit in the upcoming local elections.
Those profits will mean nothing if the extremists are trying to release or are successful. Great -Britain knows the difference between those who reflect legitimate anger about the collapse of our borders, and those who want to use that collapse to prosecute their division agenda. They know that Islamic extremism, not Muslims, is the enemy. And they can clearly see football hooligan Tommy Robinson for what he is.
So two things will happen. Either Nigel Farage will win his fight with Rupert Lowe and an uncomfortable calm will reform for reform. Or Farage will run away and reconstruct his party elsewhere. Just as he reconstituted his other political vehicles. At what point Lowe and the skin of the reform will glide into political irrelevance.
Tory and Labor MPs must understand this. There is no cheat code for beating reforms. Nobody comes to the rescue. The only way to neutralize the political threat poses Nigel Farage is to tackle the problems for which he has become an unlikely grandstand.
Rising net immigration. Verdilding of regional inequality. The neglect of the British working class. Confronting these crises – with actions, no words – represents the only way for the two traditional parties to save themselves from oblivion.
The fight between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe is fascinating blood sport. But enjoy it as long as you can. Because it is only a matter of time before Farage sends him to the canvas.
