Even if every registered voter would appear the polls in the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump would still have defeated vice -president Kamala Harris, according to a shocking new report.
Trump is said to have won the popular mood with five points – instead of just the 1.7 points he defeated Harris – if the registered voters showed up the poll, the analysis of David Schor – turns out to be a data scientist for the Democratic Party.
“So I think a strategy” We must show the temperature and mobilizing everyone “and everyone would have made,” Schor, the head of Blue Rose Research, told Eric Levitz in an interview for Vox.
His company had conducted 26 million interviews with voters in 2024 and discovered that registered Democrats could largely take themselves against the party, while moderates and those who are usually disconnected, turn to the Republicans.
“There were many democratic voters who were angry with their match last year,” he explained. 'And they were usually moderate and conservative Democrats angry about the costs of living and other issues. And although they could not bring themselves to vote for a Republican, many of them stayed at home.
“But actually their complaints were very similar to those of Biden voters who turned to Trump,” said Schor.
In the meantime, those who were the least politically involved were largely against Democrats.
Even if every registered voter would appear in the presidential elections of 2024, Donald Trump would still have defeated vice -president Kamala Harris, found a shocking report
It turned out that Trump would have won the popular mood with five points – instead of just the 1.7 points he defeated Harris – if the registered voters showed up the polls
Those politically detached voters went from a roughly neutral group in 2020 to the preference of the Republicans with around 15 points in 2024, as Blue Rose research turned out to be.
However, the same group preferred Democrats during the Obama era.
“But we are now at a point where the more people vote, the better Republicans do that,” Schor said.
He also noticed that Harris performed just as well as the candidate of 2016 did Hillary Clinton under white conservatives, white liberals and white moderate.
However, there were a double digits among the Spanish and Asian voters.
Schor attributed that decline to the Democratic Party that focused on ideological issues, while voters focused on economic issues.
“I really can't emphasize how many people have taken care of the costs of living,” he said.
'If you ask what is more important, the costs of living or another problem chosen randomly, people have chosen the costs of living 91 percent of the time. It is really difficult to have 91 percent of people click on something in a survey, “Schor noted.
Analysts have attributed the low preference of the Democrats to the focus on ideological issues when many of the electorate focused on economic issues
'After the costs of living, it was the size and scope of the federal government, the budget deficit, immigration, crime and also healthcare. And people trusted the Republicans on these issues by double-digit healthcare, where we had a two-point advantage, which was much lower than our traditional benefit about that problem.
“The reality is that, to the extent that Democrats are trying to polarize the electorate about self-adopted ideology, this is simply something that plays in the hands of Republicans,” the analyst concluded.
Harris, who only entered the presidential race after former President Joe Biden stated that he would not seek re -election, lost in a historical way of Trump – also in all seven swing states.
Even in the states that were called blue, the Republican saw a groundswell of popularity that brought him to a decisive victory in what polls suggested, would be one of the nearest breeds in history.
Trump received more than 2.5 million votes than in 2020 and won site in all 50 states, while Harris saw a decrease of seven million votes from President Joe Biden's total in his 2020 victory.
The democratic party's preference now has a record low at only 29 percent, according to a recent CNN survey.
That figure marks a decrease in the approval of 20 points since Trump left office more than four years ago, when the approval of the Democratic Party was 49 percent.
It is also a decrease of ten points just before the November elections.
A new NBC News poll that was released in the same way on Sunday showed that only 27 percent of voters had a positive picture of the Democratic party. That was the lowest positive assessment in NBC News Polling History dating from 1990.
The record low approval of the Democratic Party is powered by increased dissatisfaction from within, according to the CNN stamps.
Only 63 percent of the Democrats or Democratically leaning independent had a favorable picture of their own party, a decrease in the 72 that had a favorable picture of their party in January and 81 percent when President Biden took office.
Democrats are also torn apart from the leadership of their party, the survey must be conducted.
Among adults, aligned adults, 52 percent said that party leadership takes the party in the wrong direction, while 48 percent said they are taking the party in the right direction.
The Republican Party among Americans is 36 percent, including 79 percent approval among Republicans and Republican Leaning Independents
At the same time, a growing number of Democrats that do party leadership wants to stop the Republican agenda while Trump sails the first two months of his second term.
The poll showed that 57 percent believes that the party should do more to stop the GOP agenda, while only 42 percent believe that party leadership should work with republicans.
CNN noted that this is a dramatic shift of the views of Democrats almost eight years ago. A poll of September 2017 from Trump's first term showed that 74 percent of the Democrats thought that their party should try to work with Republicans.
In the meantime, the Republican Party among Americans is 36 percent, including 79 percent approval among Republicans and Republican independent independent people.
The approval of the Republicans has remained stable since January and only four points have fallen from just before the November elections. It is an explanation of four points from where Gop prefer was when Trump left the office in 2021.
