It had to happen sooner or later – a good few weeks for Sir Keir Starmer.
After an unfortunate start in Downing Street, a view wins that the prime minister has finally found his feet. It is an opinion that many voters share, regardless of their party.
Starmer's skilled intercourse with his white house meeting with President Trump, combined with his strong support for Ukraine and collection of European leaders, finally gave Labour -supporters something to cheer about (“he seemed to come to life,” as someone put it in my recent research).
Even his opponents admit that Starmer still has his use.
The prime minister on the other side of the political spectrum has given the prime minister another boost.
The failure between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe, and the resulting removal of a fifth of the parliamentary party of the reform of the reform, placed the noisical opponents of the government on the rear foot.
Although the intricacies of the schism will have passed on the most normal voters, I discovered that Lowe's characterization of reform is shared as 'a protest party led by the Messiah' widely. Even among those who currently tend to voice reform, only a little more than half see it currently as a serious government party.
The result is that Starmer has strengthened his lead as the best available prime minister about both Farage and Kemi Badenoch.
Starmer's skilled treatment of his white house -meeting President Trump, combined with his strong support for Ukraine and collecting European leaders, eventually gave Labor supporters something to cheer about
Lord Ashcroft (photo) says that Starmer may have had a few good weeks after he had impressed the White House and have shown strong support for Ukraine, but the Interior will be really assessed
The fall-out between Nigel Farage (photo) and Rupert Lowe, and the resulting expulsion of a fifth of the parliamentary party of the British British party, put the noisy opponents of the government on the back foot
While the parties are preparing for the local election campaign, less than half of the conservative leaners sees her as the best PM (indeed, labor supporters have twice as much chance of choosing starmer above Badenoch, because Tories Badenoch has to choose above starmer), and the number is further added to the comparison.
The conservatives have 'gone into the woodwork', voters often tell me whether they are still creating the scale of their defeat or ploting devils behind the scenes.
We will see whether the newly launched policy review of the party, together with its daring step away from the Net Zero Agenda, have the effect of at least reducing the tories to the conversation.
How long starmer's unusual series of happiness will last is another question.
World Affairs can dominate a premiership and sometimes help to end it, but rarely bring election rewards.
Gordon Brown was in his element to create fellow leaders after the 2008 financial crisis, for all the good that it did to him in the next elections.
The ultimate example is Winston Churchill, sent by voters in 1945, despite saving the nation of the Nazis.
Like all prime ministers, the fate of Starmer will depend on what is happening at home.
World Affairs can dominate a premiership and sometimes help to end it, but rarely bring election rewards; Gordon Brown (photo) was in his element to recover fellow leaders after the 2008 financial crisis, for all the good that he did in the next elections
The ultimate example is Winston Churchill (photo), who was sent in 1945 by voters despite saving the nation of the Nazis
Here he is on a lot of rockier land. “The only people they have not hindered are the Junior Doctors and the Train Drivers,” A Labor selector from 2024 told me last week, who thinks about the government's record since July, which has been dominated in public memory due to cuts on the winter fuel supply and a series of tax increases.
The perception of a dual legal system, another regular theme for complaints, seemed to be confirmed by the recent proposal for the conviction that judges should consider whether a suspect is part of an ethnic, religious or cultural minority in condemning.
My focus groups suggest that the guidance is just as unpopular as it deserves to be, and the argument that the body is independent of the government gets a short shrift from voters.
Firstly, it sounds like exactly the kind of things that lawyer work types would come up with. For someone else they say, the government is in charge, and if they really don't like it, they have to change it.
In the coming weeks, Starmer will be confronted with two more tests that will help define his leadership. The proposed welfare reforms are the most direct and, for labor, probably the most painful.
Broadly speaking, public opinion is on the government side. Most voters agree that reforming the benefit system to control the costs and get people back to work if they are able to do, the right thing to do, and they are twice as chance of thinking that it is too easy to claim benefits that it is too difficult.
Uncomfortable for ministers, conservative and reforming voters back the intention in larger numbers than the most important supporters of Labor.
Just like crime and police, well -being has always been difficult for work. My poll discovered that although the Tories are the party that are most associated with wealthy people, work is seen as closest to those who work hard and almost also deal with someone who would rather live in benefits than go to work.
In the coming weeks, Starmer will be confronted with two more tests that will help define his leadership; The proposed welfare reforms are the most direct and, for labor, probably the most painful
I also discovered that most people who support welfare reform doubt that Labor will continue – an impression that will certainly be strengthened by the climbingdown about the proposed freezing of personal independence payments after threats of Labor parliament members.
Further rebellion is brewing. Whether starter are used a large majority to penetrate the right (and for change, popular) way of acting, or caves in the left -wing elements of his party, will tell us a lot about both work and his leader.
The other big moment is the spring declaration of the Chancellor on Wednesday. To the surprise of no one except Rachel Reeves, the £ 40 billion tax increase in its autumn budget damaged jobs and growth, which means that further action is needed to balance the books.
I discovered that although voters preferred to do this by re -issuing than levying taxes, they are much more likely to think that another tax attack is on the cards.
How Sir Keir Starmer takes these challenges, and the revolutions that follow will help determine whether the last month is remembered as a turning point in his term of office or a glimpse of foreign sun amidst domestic gloom.
Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is on Lordashcroftpolls.com.
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