The raw arithmetic of how many seats of owner should change for Peter Dutton and the coalition to win in the coming elections suggests that the greater outcome is a re-elected Labor government led by Anthony Albanese.
The coalition won only 58 of the 151 seats offered in the 2022 elections and lost the government to work during the trial. Labor took 77 seats and gave it a slim majority. The remaining 16 seats were won by a collection of crossbenchers: Greens, Teeks and various others.
Since that election three years ago, Labor has won one chair of the coalition in an interim election, which brings the current total to 78. The coalition has lost another three members of parliament to the Crossbench, all of whom dispute the next elections as independent. So Dutton starts this election campaign with only 54 seats.
Since the last elections there have been election distributions in three states, so that seats in both NSW and Victoria have been abolished, with a new marginal chair made in WA. The NSW chair was held by a green blue, the Victorian seat by the Labor Party.
So in these elections there are 150 seats for the taking, and 76 is the magical number to secure the majority of the government. Labor starts the competition with 77 seats, so it can't afford to lose more than one of those seats without tackling others if the full stream wants to retain.
In view of recent opinion polls and dissatisfaction with the prime minister's performance, it is therefore likely that if Labor wins the elections, this will do this as a minority government.
For the coalition to form a majority government, it should win 22 seats on top of the 54 that it already means. Although some of them can include victories over crossbenchers, the lion's share of the seats that the coalition must win in order to form the majority of the government must be taken from work.
It is a big assignment to win so many seats against a first government, especially when it considered that the last first government that lost re -election was in 1931.
Anthony Albanese is depicted by taking questions from the press after announcing the election will be held on 3 May
If Dutton would be a PM, it is likely that he must also form a minority government – but even that seems difficult from a starting point of only 54 seats.
Looking throughout the country, the most important battlefield states are the two largest, NSW and Victoria. The most marginal seat of Labor is the Gilmore electorate on the south coast of NSW, in the hands of only 0.2 percent. The Sydney seat of Benelong is also held by the Labor Party, but the recent redistribution has pushed voters to areas with a higher liberal mood, which means that it is now notional now a liberal marginal seat, making it very difficult for labor.
All work has classified six seats in NSW as official marginal voters, with margins of five percent or less. In Victoria there are only three seats marginal, but the unpopularity of the state workers government means that traditionally safer seats such as Bruce (5.3 percent), Dunkley (6.8 percent) and Holt (7.1 percent) are also aimed by the coalition.
While the coalition will strive to win marginal workers that are held in smaller states throughout the country – such as Lyons (0.9 percent) in Tasmania, and Lingiari (1.6 percent) in the northern territory – most election spending will take place in the larger states with more seating areas.
Queensland already sees the opposition 21 of the 30 seats that are offered, which means that the most important task of Dutton in its home is to retain those seats instead of going behind extra seats held by the Labor party. Labor hopes to regain the LNP of Leichhardt after the pension of the popular local parliament member Warren Etsch. The LNP believes that it is able to recover Ryan from the Greens.
There are really only two seats in the game in South Australia, the liberal chair from Sturt (with a margin of 0.5 percent) and the labor -marginal seat of Boothby (3.3 percent).
Although Dutton has to do well in NSW and Victoria to win these elections, he can lose it by getting no exceptions in the West. WA waved dramatic Labor in the last elections and picked up four liberal seats, whereby the government of Morrison also lost the safe seat of Curtin to a green -blue independent.
Wa saw double digits in some seats, which means that if Dutton started to defy history and win this election, he needs to recover some of them. Both large parties think that this is unlikely, partly because of the damaged liberal brand at state level in WA. However, the newly created WA chair from Bullwinkel seems to be won by the coalition.
The greatest difficulty of Peter Dutton is that thanks to the green Independent and Dwarsbench defects from the coalition's own ranks during this term of the parliament, it now starts from a long way back with only 54 seats
So where does this all leave us? The most likely result is a suspended parliament with labor that remains in power as a minority government. That said, if there is a mood for change, the figures in individual seats are largely irrelevant and a large number of work MPs are wiped out with the election. That is what happened in elections that were won by the coalition of opposition in both 1996 and 2013. But those victories came into duration after work governments of 13 years and six years respectively.
This election can be too fast after the birth came to power for Dutton to create such a momentum for change. However, the costs of living in combination with budget misery make it difficult for work, especially maintaining the majority of such a low starting point.
Most governments of one term have larger majorities in the beginning, which means that they can sacrifice seats and still retain their majority. Albanese does not have that luxury that starts this election campaign with only 77 seats when 76 are needed to retain the majority of the government.
The greatest difficulty of Dutton is that the courtesy of the green independent and Dwarsbench defects from the coalition's own ranks during this duration of the parliament, although the majority of Labor is thin, the coalition starts from a long way back with only 54 seats.
Dutton will wage a war on two fronts during this election campaign by trying to win a number of seats from the crossbench and at the same time with muscles of labor. The problem is that the nature of these twin tasks is very different. Teal voters are largely seats in the city center. The labor marginal that Dutton has to win are outward metropolitan seats.
The problems that voters cause contrast between these voters. What Dutton does to rely on Labor selectors who open up for changing their voices in outer city voters can eliminate some green -blue voters in seats they have.
This election can be too fast after the birth came to power for Dutton to create such a momentum for change. However, the costs of living in combination with budget misery make it difficult for work, in particular maintaining the majority of such a low starting point
The balancing act probably makes the victory for Dutton a bridge too far and one election too early. Although he will campaign to win, his more realistic best case scenario is to force work in a messy minority government and then to ruthless campaign against its potential dysfunction for a victory over three years.
That was Tony Abbott's strategy after he won the 2010 elections to Julia Gillard and the Labor only as a minority government.
It feels like history that repeats itself, is the most expected result of this five -week election campaign, with the prospect of the minority government for us.
That will not fill too many Australians with joy, but it is almost inevitable on the basis of the raw arithmetic of how seats through seat matches will probably play when the votes are counted on 3 May.
