Financial markets now expect much to expect that an interest rate rate reduction can be reduced as a result of the broad rates of Donald Trump of at least 10 percent.
The 30-day Interbancaire Futures market now has a reduction in the Bank of Australia reserve as a chance from Reserve Bank of Australia.
As a result, the cash rate would decrease to 3.85 percent for the first time since June 2023, after the next two -day board meeting of the RBA.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed that Australia would not take revenge on the 10 percent rates for Australian exports, on top of the 25 percent import tasks on steel and aluminum.
“A mutual rate would be zero, not 10 percent,” he said.
Although American rates could increase inflation, central bankers are more concerned about the global trade wars that slow down economic growth.
This would in particular be the case in Australia, which depends on global trade for his prosperity, because American rates threaten the future of beef, the largest export from Australia to the US.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock made this point on Tuesday, because the RBA rates on hold at 4.1 percent.
Financial markets now expect much to expect that an interest rate rate reduction can be reduced as a result of the widespread rates of Donald Trump
“We know what to worry about,” she told reporters in Sydney.
'A trade war with escalating rates and mutual rates will slow down growth in world trade and Australia as a small, open economy, massively benefits from open trade.
“So it's not good for us, a world trade system that fragments, that's not good for us.”
AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver said that the RBA would be inclined to lower the rates in May if the American rates do not weaken the Australian dollar and make imports more expensive.
“Assuming that Australia does not take revenge and the $ A does not crash, the rates of Trump are more a threat to growth than cause higher inflation here and therefore add to the case for more RBA speeds,” he said.
The stock market has responded poorly to the announcement of Trump's rates, whereby the Benchmark S&P/ASX200 on Thursday morning fell by 1.99 percent in the opening of half an hour of trade.
The Australian farm, the largest integrated cattle producer in Australia, did worse with the share price by 3.18 percent to $ 1.37.
Dr. Oliver said that the Australian stock market would probably fall further, because American rates run the risk of causing an American recession.
The 30-day interbancaire Futures market now relates to a 20 May reduced by the reserve Bank of Australia as an opportunity
“Given the even greater threat to global growth, it seems that stock markets will still have a leg,” he said.
'Our assessment remains that shares have measured a correction of 15 percent-plus from this year's high.
“A decrease of 10 percent in US shares was not enough to put pressure on Trump, but a decrease of 15 percent plus will probably result in any moderation in the rates and re-concentrate on the market-positive aspects of his agenda, such as tax reductions and the regulation.”
The Trump administration has a problem with Australia's biosafility laws, since beef was the largest export from Australia to the US in 2024.
It also regards the GST in Australia as a protectionist, although the consumption tax is applied equally to locally produced and imported goods and services.
More specific rates for Australian exports such as pharmaceutical products can come.
The Futuresmarkt sees three more tariff reductions at the end of 2025, which means that the RBA -Contant rate would fall to 3.35 percent for the first time since March 2023 to 3.35 percent.
