Israeli generals, low on ammunition, want a ceasefire in Gaza

Israel’s top generals want a ceasefire in Gaza, even if it keeps Hamas in power for the time being. This only widens the rift between the army and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is opposed to a ceasefire that would allow Hamas to survive the war.

The generals believe a ceasefire would be the best way to free the approximately 120 Israelis still trapped in Gaza, both dead and alive, according to interviews with six current and former security officials.

The generals are ill-equipped for further fighting after Israel’s longest war in decades. They also believe their troops need time to recover in case a land war breaks out against Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that has been engaged in a small-scale battle with Israel since October, multiple officials said.

A truce with Hamas could also make it easier to reach a deal with Hezbollah, said the officials, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters. Hezbollah has said it will continue to attack northern Israel until Israel stops fighting in the Gaza Strip.

Israel’s military leadership, known collectively as the General Staff Forum, consists of approximately 30 senior generals, including the military chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, the commanders of the army, air force and navy, and the head of military intelligence.

The military’s stance on a ceasefire reflects a major shift in its thinking in recent months, as it became increasingly clear that Mr. Netanyahu refused to formulate or commit to a post-war plan. That decision has effectively created a power vacuum in the enclave, forcing the military to retreat and fight in parts of Gaza it had already cleared of Hamas fighters.

“The military fully supports the hostage deal and the ceasefire,” said Eyal Hulata, who was Israel’s national security adviser until early last year and regularly meets with senior military officials.

“They believe that they can always go back and attack Hamas militarily in the future,” Hulata said. “They understand that a pause in Gaza makes de-escalation in Lebanon more likely. And they have less ammunition, less spare parts, less energy than before — so they also think that a pause in Gaza gives us more time to prepare in case a bigger war with Hezbollah breaks out.”

It is unclear to what extent the military leadership has made its views known to Netanyahu in private, but there are signs of frustration in public, as well as the prime minister’s frustration with the generals.

Mr Netanyahu is wary of a ceasefire that keeps Hamas in power, as it could lead to the collapse of his coalition. Parts of the coalition have already said they will leave the alliance if the war ends and Hamas is not defeated.

Until recently, the military publicly maintained that it was possible to simultaneously achieve the government’s two main war goals: defeating Hamas and rescuing the hostages Hamas and its allies captured during the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. Now the military high command has concluded that the two goals are incompatible, months after generals began to have doubts.

Since the invasion of Gaza in October, Israel has overrun nearly all of Hamas’s battalions and occupied most of the territory at one point in the war. But just under half of the 250 hostages brought to Gaza in October remain, and the high command fears that further military action to free them risks killing the others.

With Mr. Netanyahu publicly unwilling to commit to occupying Gaza or handing control to alternative Palestinian leaders, the military fears a “perpetual war” in which its energy and ammunition are gradually sapped while the hostages remain captive and Hamas leaders remain at large. In light of that scenario, keeping Hamas in power in exchange for getting the hostages back seems like the least bad option for Israel, Mr. Hulata said. Four senior officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, agreed.

Asked to comment on whether it supports a ceasefire, the military issued a statement that did not directly address the question. The military seeks the destruction of “Hamas’ military and administrative capabilities, the return of the hostages and the safe return of Israeli civilians from the south and north to their homes,” the statement said.

But in other recent statements and interviews, military leaders have publicly hinted at what they have concluded in private.

“Those who think we can make Hamas disappear are mistaken,” Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, the army’s chief spokesman, said in a television interview on June 19. He said: “Hamas is an idea. Hamas is a political party. It is rooted in the hearts of people.”

To claim otherwise, Admiral Hagari said in a veiled criticism of Mr. Netanyahu, was “throwing sand in the public’s eyes.”

“What we can do is build something else,” he said, “something that will replace it, something that will let the population know that someone else is distributing food, someone else is providing public services. Who that someone is, what that thing is — that is for the decision makers to decide.”

General Halevi, the chief of staff, has recently tried to inflate the military’s performance. Some analysts have called this an attempt to create a pretext for ending the war without losing face.

As Israeli forces advanced through the southern Gazan city of Rafah on June 24, General Halevi said the army was “clearly approaching the point where we can say that we have dismantled the Rafah Brigade, that it is defeated. Not in the sense that there are no more terrorists, but in the sense that it can no longer function as a fighting force.”

The army estimates it has killed at least 14,000 fighters — most of them Hamas forces. But officials also believe thousands of Hamas fighters remain at large, hidden in tunnels dug deep beneath Gaza’s surface, guarding caches of weapons, fuel, food and some hostages.

Mr. Netanyahu’s office declined to comment for this article. In a statement on Monday, he said Israel was close to “eliminating the Hamas terrorist army” but stopped short of saying this would allow Israel to end the war in Gaza.

In a rare television interview in late June, the prime minister rejected suggestions that the war should end, but acknowledged that the army should withdraw its presence in Gaza to “move some of our forces north.”

Military officials said the move was needed to help the army recover in the event of a wider war with Hezbollah, not because Israel is preparing to invade Lebanon anytime soon. Other news reports, however, have suggested that Israel may be planning an invasion in the coming weeks.

Nearly nine months into a war Israel never expected, the military is running out of spare parts, ammunition, motivation and even troops, officials said.

The war is the most intense conflict Israel has fought in at least four decades, and the longest it has ever fought in Gaza. In a military that relies largely on reservists, some are in their third tours of duty since October and are struggling to balance combat with professional and family commitments.

Fewer reservists are reporting for duty, according to four military officials. And officers increasingly distrust their commanders, amid a crisis of confidence in the military leadership, sparked in part by its failure to prevent the Hamas-led attack in October, five officers said.

More than 300 soldiers have been killed in Gaza, fewer than some military officials predicted before Israel invaded the territory. But more than 4,000 have been wounded since October, according to military statistics, 10 times the total during the 2014 Gaza war, which lasted just 50 days. An unknown number of others are suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder.

At least some tanks in Gaza are not loaded with the full capacity of the shells they normally carry, as the army tries to conserve its supplies in case a larger war with Hezbollah breaks out, two officers said. Five officials and officers confirmed that the army was running low on shells. The army is also running out of spare parts for its tanks, military bulldozers and armored vehicles, several of the officials said.

All the officers, including Mr. Hulata, said that Israel has more than enough ammunition to fight in Lebanon if it feels it has no other choice.

“If we get dragged into a bigger war, we have enough resources and manpower,” Mr. Hulata said. “But we want to do it under the best conditions we can. And right now, we don’t have the best conditions.”

Johnatan Reiss contributed to the reporting.