Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense was even better than you think

(Editor’s note: This is an excerpt from Mike Sando’s Pick Six from September 30, 2024.)

Let’s take a look at the ways Jayden Daniels is transforming the Washington Commanders and the NFC East race.

The Commanders moved to the top of the NFC East at 3-1 with a 42-14 dominance of Arizona. Their Daniels quarterback offense sets the bar higher than anyone could realistically expect. As in, get Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers high.

Washington scored on 68 percent of its drives, the highest four-game percentage for any team since at least 2000, according to TruMedia. You may recognize the teams directly behind the commanders on that list. Even Brady’s 2007 New England Patriots didn’t score that often to start their historic undefeated regular season.

The Commanders’ offense has produced at least 8.0 EPA in every game this season. Washington played 387 regular-season games from 2000 to 2023 without reaching that goal in more than two consecutive games in a season.

The four-game streak is the second-longest in the league since 2000 for any team with a starting quarterback. Russell Wilson’s 2012 Seattle Seahawks strung together five such games. Washington can tie that record at home against Cleveland in Week 5.

The table above shows the longest streaks involving starting quarterbacks since 2000. Nearly all of the other streaks unfolded later in the season, after quarterbacks had some experience.

Before the season, five NFL execs combined to predict that Washington would finish 14th in the NFC this season. One of the executives helped the Commanders finish sixth and win the NFC East. Why?

“I ranked them that high for a few reasons,” the director said Sunday evening. “One: I was with the Giants. Two: I was at Dallas. Third, I was a toss-up on Philly. Fourth, we’re talking about the arrival of the Heisman winner and possibly electric, combined with the offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) who is better prepared than anyone in the league at this point to handle that player. It’s a perfect marriage.”

One of the managers who ranked Washington lower heading into the season is now calling the NFC East a “nonsense.” He gave Washington the lead, followed by Philadelphia, Dallas and the Giants. He noted that Daniels is a “difference maker” who is difficult to defend and said Dan Quinn, the new coach, instills belief in Washington. But he also cautioned that it’s still early, and Daniels still has to prove he can hold up physically after taking big hits at times in college.

Daniels is completing 82 percent of his passes, the best in league history through four games among players with at least 75 attempts, per Fox. Brady was at 79.2 percent in 2007. Daniels has completed 71 percent (20 of 28) of passes going at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. That comfortably leads the league this season (Brock Purdy is second with 66 percent).

GO DEEPER

Jayden Daniels, the burgeoning optimism of Commanders and the psyche of a healing fan base

What happens when the defense better understands the commanders’ tendencies?

“The big teams have a next roll,” the director said. “It will be interesting to see what it looks like as it goes.”

The schedule can help even things out. Washington faces Cleveland, Baltimore, Chicago and Pittsburgh over the next six weeks. These teams collectively give up 18.5 points per game to opponent fouls.

The Commanders won’t face the Eagles or Cowboys until Week 11, who are both 2-2 with four of their last seven games coming against these two opponents.

(Photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images)