Kawakami: How the Warriors Fit into Lauri Markkanen’s Deadlines and Scenarios
Are the Golden State Warriors closing in on a blockbuster trade for Lauri Markkanen while most of the NBA is either on vacation or fixated on Team USA’s journey through the Olympics? I don’t know. No one really knows. Maybe.
Sometimes this trade seems highly unlikely. Sometimes it seems more likely than most other possible outcomes. It depends on when you ask and who’s betting, because everything about this situation is unique and complicated, with multiple timelines, contrasting viewpoints, and very different motivations on all sides.
The question I keep asking: What does Markkanen want? We know what Utah Jazz CEO Danny Ainge wants — Markkanen locked in to a long-term deal and also eligible to be traded in six months. We know what Warriors management wants — Markkanen added to the roster as quickly as possible as a 1B scoring option alongside Stephen Curry and presumably willing to sign for the long haul.
But we don’t know what Markkanen really wants or when he wants it all decided. We’ll find out in the coming days. And if nothing is resolved by midweek, the drama will almost certainly continue to mount over the coming weeks or months.
The scenarios:
• Markkanen could sign a renegotiated and extended new deal with the Jazz on Tuesday, the first day he is eligible. Under the rules, that would mean he would be untradeable for six months, until February 6, the exact day of the NBA trade deadline.
For the Warriors, that would be a mixed bag. They wouldn’t get another chance at Markkanen until deep into the season. But for the Warriors, that’s better than nothing.
• Markkanen could wait until Wednesday or later to sign a new contract with the Jazz, which would mean he cannot be traded at all next season due to the six-month rule.
For the Warriors, that would be the worst potential development in the short term, as they would now no longer get a chance at Markkanen. or in February. Due to salary cap restrictions, they would not be able to bring him in the off-season either.
• Either Markkanen or the Jazz, or both, could decide to delay the new deal and enter an extended negotiation period in which Markkanen could be traded at any point through February, sign a new deal with the Jazz, or simply sit out the season and hit unrestricted free agency next July.
For the Warriors, this would be the green light scenario. I also think it’s the most likely — my guess is that if Markkanen doesn’t sign with Utah on August 6, the deal won’t happen for him on August 7 and beyond. I could be wrong, but that’s my guess. If it plays out that way, it’s time to see what Utah can get on the trade market. And I think the Warriors would be at the front of the line, just as they were a few weeks ago when they first started talking to the Jazz.
By the way, I’m just going to assume that Scenario 1 is probably a non-starter. According to The Athletics‘s Tony Jones, it is unlikely that Markkanen will sign the new deal before Tuesday, which makes sense. The 27-year-old Markkanen knows he is going to get a lot of money now or next summer. By not signing this week, Markkanen effectively gains some control over his future.
So yes, terribly complicated. That’s why this situation has dragged on through the offseason and all the way into August. But the bottom line is that Markkanen is worth it. If the Warriors can make this deal, either this week or before the February deadline, they’ll get an instant lift once Markkanen arrives and likely for years to come.
Let’s go over some important background information:
Markkanen is the best fit for the Warriors among the high-profile players likely to become available in the next year or so
He’d be a young, luxury version of Otto Porter Jr., Mo Speights or Nemanja Bjelica, the kind of full-time stretch five the Warriors really haven’t had in this era. Want to make more room on the court for Curry? Here’s how.
Markkanen would be a great matchup on the front line with Draymond Green. He would be a great matchup on the front line with Jonathan Kuminga. He would be a fascinating matchup in a front court with both Green And Kuminga. He could probably even play some minutes with Trayce Jackson-Davis in a double-center lineup.
And Markkanen (39.9 percent of three-pointers last season) could certainly replace some of the three-pointers the Warriors lost when Klay Thompson (38.7 percent of three-pointers last season) left this summer.
He’s not as talented as Paul George, but I think Markkanen is a better fit for the Warriors right now because he’s seven years younger, doesn’t have the same injury history and plays a style that could extend both Curry’s and Green’s prime years. The Warriors pushed hard to trade George last month — offering to give him a four-year extension — because George is a superior player and would have brought more immediate value to the Warriors. But when you factor in the future beyond Curry (whenever that may be), it’s hard to find an available player who better fits the Warriors’ current and ongoing needs than Markkanen.
Of course, Joe Lacob’s Warriors are always looking for ways to land all the big names. They spent more than a year plotting their path to signing Kevin Durant, finally landing him in July 2016. Who knows which superstar will have had enough of his current situation in February or July of next year? But there are no clear main targets for 2025 yet.
The best potential free agent of July 2025 is Markkanen, and the Warriors’ best chance to get him is now.
Does Markkanen want to stay with the Warriors long-term?
This is the big unknown. My understanding is that Markkanen’s camp is not opposed to him ending up with the Warriors, but that there are other teams on the favorable list if Utah does put him on the trade market. And Markkanen is certainly not opposed to staying with the Jazz, but on his own terms.
Another big question: If Markkanen were to be traded to the Warriors, would he sign an extension or would he seek free agency and talk to other teams anyway? If he feels comfortable with the Warriors, Markkanen could steer the trade talks somewhat in the way that Pascal Siakam’s camp pushed Toronto’s trade talks to focus on the Indiana Pacers, or OG Anunoby’s camp pushed the Raptors to focus on the New York Knicks last trade deadline. Surprise, surprise, both players signed huge long-term contracts with their new teams this offseason.
I think it’s safe to say that the Warriors would not have recently talked to the Jazz about trading multiple first-round picks plus a valuable young player unless they had some inclination that Markkanen would sign a long-term deal. They don’t have these kinds of conversations just for a one-season rental.
The Warriors can’t give him the same kind of renegotiate-and-extend deal that Utah can give him now; the Jazz can use available cap space to immediately add $14 million to this season’s deal and extend Markkanen’s contract at that salary. The Warriors don’t have that kind of space. But if the Warriors acquire Markkanen before or during this season, they could either negotiate an extension with Markkanen on his current deal or maximize Markkanen’s money by signing him after he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Most importantly, if they trade for him, the Warriors would have Markkanen’s Bird Rights and wouldn’t need cap space to give him his max contract in July.
Can the Warriors land Markkanen without including one of their best young players in the deal?
This is not yet known. On his Substack, Marc Stein reported that the Warriors did not include Kuminga or Brandin Podziemski in a bid for Markkanen. The AthleticsShams Charania reported weeks ago that the young player the Warriors offered, along with multiple first-round picks, is Moses Moody.
You can imagine what Lacob and Mike Dunleavy Jr. are thinking: The Warriors can sacrifice a huge chunk of their future draft allocation if they end up with Markkanen, Kuminga, and Podziemski as the group that will lead this team into the post-Curry years. If they take one of those guys (and I’m guessing Utah would much rather have Podziemski due to salary concerns), then giving up all those picks becomes a lot more risky.
So the offer is probably Moody plus a bunch of picks or, maybe ultimately, Moody and Podizemski but with one or two of the first-round picks taken out of the offer. Would that get the deal done?
That will depend on Ainge, who is known for his tough trade negotiations. But the Jazz’s leverage will wane if and when August 6 rolls around and Markkanen isn’t signed. Ainge could calm things down if he signs Markkanen on August 7 or later. But let’s see if that happens.
What adding a maximum Markkanen salary would do to the Warriors’ payroll
If the Warriors acquire Markkanen and then negotiate a new deal in July, his market value will be somewhere around $200 million over four years. That’s just what a very valuable player who hits free agency next July will cost. If the Warriors aren’t interested in giving him this deal, they shouldn’t even consider trading him. So let’s just assume the Warriors are happy with those numbers.
Still, the Warriors would face real consequences after adding a $50 million-per-year player to their payroll. They already have Curry committed to $55.8 million this season and $59.6 million in 2025-26, and would surely like to add more years at even higher rates in the future. The Warriors also have $77.6 million committed to Green through 2026-27 and have Kuminga’s rookie extension, likely in the $30 million per year, expiring soon.
The Warriors just got out of the second platform and probably won’t get back in anytime soon. If the Warriors add Markkanen or another player at that salary, someone, or several people, would eventually have to leave. Not right away. But pretty soon. The most likely candidate: Andrew Wiggins, who is owed an average of $28.1 million over the next three years.
It’s all part of the math for something that could be very big for the Warriors, after a lot of planning. For now, they just have to wait. But maybe not too long.
(Photo by Lauri Markkanen: Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)
