Liberal pollster predicts landslide victory for presidential candidate ahead of ABC debate
Donald Trump will win a landslide victory over Kamala Harris, according to a liberal pollster’s latest forecast.
According to Nate Silver’s prediction, the Republican candidate has a 63.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College votes, compared to 36 percent for Harris.
Silver’s modeling, published on his blog Silver Bulletingiving Trump a lead in all key swing states.
He predicts 312 electoral votes for Trump and 226 for Harris, without a doubt.
This figure is a huge increase from the 227 votes Trump secured against Biden in 2020 and even an improvement from his victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016, when he captured the White House with 304 electoral votes.
The latest forecast from a liberal pollster shows Donald Trump winning a landslide victory over Kamala Harris
Silver had predicted that Harris would win until August 29, the date of her CNN interview with her running mate Tim Walz.
Since then, Trump has steadily gained the lead in his predictions and is now favored to win by the largest margin in months.
Other pollsters, however, are more conservative and give Harris a slight lead.
RealClear’s modeling shows the vice president winning with 273 electoral college votes to Trump’s 265 on a no-toss-up ticket. No fewer than 270 votes are needed to secure the White House.
Project 538’s latest projection contradicts Silver’s, putting the Electoral College votes at 281 for Harris and 257 for Trump.
That’s according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released two days before the debate, which showed Trump ahead of the vice president by 1 point — 48 percent to 47 percent — and within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.
Silver said Harris still has a lead over the rest, with a 56 percent chance of winning the most votes, compared to Trump’s 44 percent.
But his margins are small: Harris narrowly beats Trump with an estimated 49.8 percent of the vote, compared to 49.1 percent for the Republican candidate.
“The good news for Harris is that there’s a debate on Tuesday, and if she does well, no one will care about the Times poll anymore,” Silver said.
Nate Silver’s forecast puts the Republican candidate’s chance of winning the electoral vote at 63.8 percent, compared to 36 percent for Harris
Crucially, Silver put Trump ahead in Electoral College votes in all swing states
‘A relatively high percentage of voters in the NYT poll said they didn’t know what Harris stood for, which means there’s still room for change in these numbers.
“But they could go either way, now that Team Trump is spreading audio and video clips.”
The presidential candidates will compete against each other in Philadelphia on Tuesday.
Polls last week showed Harris with little to no support after the Democratic convention, with Trump winning more votes than the vice president in several key swing states.
A study by the Trafalgar Group of seven of the toughest contests (according to experts, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada) shows that Trump is either ahead or tied with Harris.
