Lions Super Bowl? McCarthy’s seat the hottest? The Athletic NFL staff’s midseason picks
Back in September, The Athletics‘s NFL staff made picks for MVP, Super Bowl champion and more. Two months later, the (approximate) midseason of the season, is the perfect time to update those predictions. Some things have stayed the same (like the consensus Super Bowl LIX matchup), while others have changed (MVP and Super Bowl winner picks).
Forty-six employees responded. Here are their predictions.
Voter fatigue may have been a factor in Lamar Jackson receiving zero MVP votes in our poll two months ago, but his performance thus far is undeniable. Patrick Mahomes was the pick before the season started, but while he performed better than his box score stats would suggest, he would statistically have too steep a hill to climb to overtake Jackson.
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Like his quarterback teammate who now leads the MVP race, Derrick Henry did not receive a single OPOY vote from our staff in the preseason, although Henry now appears to be a healthy second half of the season away from capturing the award for a second time in his career. September’s two biggest vote-getters have fallen prey to injuries: Tyreek Hill to his quarterback and Christian McCaffrey to himself.
Watt finished third in preseason voting, behind Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. Parsons’ injury and Garrett’s (relatively) poor season have opened the door for Watt to win the DPOY award for a second time – which would put him one trophy away from catching big brother JJ, a three-time winner at the Houston Texans. Warner and Chris Jones also attracted votes in the September poll.
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Jayden Daniels finished second to top draft pick Caleb Williams in the preseason voting. While Williams’ play has improved as the season has progressed, Daniels has been spectacular and primarily responsible for the staggering turnaround of the Commanders’ fortunes on the field. (Even though we haven’t split the rookie vote into offensive and defensive awards like the NFL does, one voter still named Rams edge rusher Jared Verse as the best defensive rookie.)
The Chiefs took 28 of 42 votes (67 percent) to win the AFC in September, and now receive a similar share (63 percent) midway through the season. They’ve run into some injury issues (notably top receiver Rashee Rice) after a 21-game season a year ago, but with a perfect record, things are being set up to run through Kansas City in the AFC playoffs. There isn’t much reason to leave the two-time defending champions.
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While the Lions were the preseason choice with less than half the vote (16 out of 42, 38 percent), their performance in the first half of the season, especially of late, has seen them heavy favorites in the NFC (87 percent of the vote). The Packers, 49ers and Eagles also finished second, third and fourth, respectively, in September.
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While hosting the summer’s two conference champions, the Lions have earned the staff’s trust when it comes to potentially hoisting the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl LIX. While the Chiefs received more than half the votes (23 out of 42) in September, Detroit drew just two votes to win the Super Bowl before the season started, and was in fifth place at the time (behind the Chiefs, 49ers, Texans and Bengals).
What they said
“The Dolphins are flawed on defense and can’t afford more than two more losses, but they have a supercharged offense and the favorable schedule (Rams, Raiders, Patriots, Browns, Jets twice) to go on the run and steal the ball. AFC’s seventh playoff spot.” — Joe Buscaglia, Bills defeated writer
“It’s the 49ers if they bring Christian McCaffrey back and he can stay on the field. Otherwise I would go for the Bengals.” — Mike Sando, NFL senior writer
“I almost picked the 49ers to win the NFC, despite their 4-4 start. They’ve been shorthanded all season, and while they don’t get Brandon Aiyuk or Javon Hargrave back, I think they have enough elsewhere to win it all if all goes well. Brock Purdy has taken another step and the offensive line has more upside than in previous years. If Christian McCaffrey is right, San Francisco could become a juggernaut again.” — David DeChant, editor-in-chief
“The Rams are in a vulnerable division and the offense is getting healthy.” — RJ Kraft, staff editor
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What they said
“Doug Pederson is under the most pressure; The Jaguar ownership has publicly set expectations so high going into the season.” — Mike Sando, NFL senior writer
“Things may be beyond repair in Dallas, but there’s no way Jerry Jones can go back to Mike McCarthy if this thing goes further off the rails.” — Jim Ayello, Editor-in-Chief
“You just don’t bench a 22-year-old quarterback who was the fourth overall pick for his 39-year-old backup if you’re not going all in this year.” — Joe Buscaglia, Bills defeated writer
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletics; Photos: Sam Hodde/Getty Images, Patrick McDermott/Getty Images, Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
