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In yet another dire warning for the approaching Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted Thursday that 17 to 25 named tropical cyclones could occur this year, the highest number ever predicted for the Atlantic in May.
The NOAA forecast joins more than a dozen other recent forecasts from experts at universities, private companies and other government agencies that have predicted a probability of 14 or more named storms this season; many called for over 20.
Rick Spinrad, NOAA administrator, said on a press conference on Thursday morning that the agency’s meteorologists believed that eight to 13 of the named storms could become hurricanes, meaning they would have winds of at least 74 miles per hour. That could include four to seven major hurricanes — Category 3 or higher — with winds of at least 111 mph
According to NOAA there is an 85 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 10 percent chance of an almost normal season, with a 5 percent chance of a below normal season. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
While it only takes one storm in a below-average season to devastate an area, North America is more likely to experience a tropical storm or, worse, a major hurricane because conditions are nearly twice as favorable for storms.
There are 21 entries on this year’s official list of storm names, from Alberto to WilliamWhen that list is exhausted, the National Weather Service moves to a alternative list of namessomething it has only had to do twice in its history.
NOAA typically issues a forecast for May and then an updated forecast in August. Before Thursday, NOAA’s most significant May forecast was in 2010, when it predicted 14 to 23 named storms; that year, 19 ultimately formed by the end of the season. In 2020, the May forecast was 13 to 19 named storms, but an updated August forecast was even higher, with 19 to 25 named storms. That season ultimately saw 30 named storms.
The hurricane outlook is remarkably positive this year due to the unprecedented conditions expected.
As meteorologists look ahead to the official start of the season on June 1, they are seeing conditions never seen in records dating back to the mid-1800s: record-warm water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the possible formation of the La Niña weather pattern.
Brian McNoldy, a University of Miami researcher who specializes in hurricane formation, said meteorologists trying to predict the coming season can only draw conclusions from past outliers because there are no previous examples of such conditions.
Experts are concerned about the high ocean temperatures.
“I think all systems are set for a hyperactive season,” said Phil Klotzbach, an expert in seasonal hurricane forecasting at Colorado State University.
The critical area of the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form is already unusually warm ahead of the season. Benjamin Kirtman, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami, previously described the conditions as “unprecedented,” “alarming” and an “out-of-bounds anomaly.”
Over the past century, those temperatures have been rising steadily. But last year, with an intensity that made climate scientists nervous, waters warmed even faster in a region of the Atlantic Ocean where most hurricanes form. The region, stretching from West Africa to Central America, is hotter this year than it was before the start of last year’s hurricane season, which produced 20 named storms.
Current temperatures in the Atlantic are worrying because they mean the ocean is poised to provide extra fuel to any storm that forms. Even if the surface suddenly cools, temperatures below the surface, which are also significantly above average, are expected to quickly warm surface temperatures again.
These warmer temperatures can fuel storms — and help sustain them. Sometimes, when there are no other atmospheric conditions to hinder a storm’s growth, they can intensify faster than normal, changing hurricane category in less than a day.
Combined with the rapidly declining El Niño weather pattern in early May, the temperatures are making experts increasingly confident that this hurricane season will see an exceptionally high number of storms.
A final El Niño and likely a La Niña increase confidence in weather forecasts.
El Niño is caused by changing ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and affects weather patterns worldwide. When it is strong, it usually prevents storms from developing and growing. Last year, warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean weakened the effect of El Niño to do that. If El Niño is waning, as meteorologists expect, there won’t be much to weaken the season this time around.
Weather experts who specialize in the ebb and flow of El Niño, including Michelle L’Heureux of the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, are fairly confident that not only will El Niño wane, but that there is also a high chance (77 percent) that La Niña will form during the height of hurricane season.
The system could throw a curveball, she said, but at this point in the spring, things are shaping up as forecasters had expected. A La Niña weather pattern would already have them looking at an above-average year. The possibility of a La Niña, combined with record sea surface temperatures this hurricane season, is expected to create a robust environment for storms to form and intensify this year.
