Maharashtra goes to polls today: battle hinges on sops, jobs, quotas and crops – Times of India

MUMBAI: Money, Caste, Crop and maybe Community. That pretty much defines the key factors at play as Maharashtra heads to elections on Wednesday.
This is the first Assembly election since the dramatic split between the Shiv Sena and NCP, which led to major political realignments, and comes barely six months after the Lok Sabha results in which the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi came out on top. By capturing 30 of the state’s 48 seats, the ruling Mahayuti was left reeling with a total of 17, even though the difference in vote share of the two fronts was less than 1%. In terms of leads, Mahayuti led in 125 segments while MVA led in 153.
However, the Haryana verdict has given the BJP and allies a boost in the form of an unprecedented third term. Since then, they have been working overtime to counter anti-incumbency in one of India’s largest states. This includes bombarding the electorate with sops such as a monthly income support programme, Mukhya Mantri Ladki Bahin Yojana, which is based on the Madhya Pradesh model. Five installments of Rs 1,500 have reached over 2.3 crore women.
Its popularity is evident from the manifestos released by both fronts: they offer even more sops for women. While Mahayuti has offered Rs 2,100 per month if voted down, MVA has offered a monthly stipend of Rs 3,000 under the Mahalakshmi scheme.
But will this counter public discontent on other issues? Low input prices for soybean and cotton farmers could be a deciding factor in Vidarbha and Marathwada. During the Lok Sabha polls, Mahayuti faced a backlash in these regions. Inflation and unemployment also continue to simmer. The opposition even argues that rising prices are counteracting profits from the Ladki Bahin stipend.
The Opposition has also appealed to Marathi asmita or pride by focusing on the Adani group’s presence in the Dharavi Redevelopment Project and the flight of industry and jobs from Maharashtra to Gujarat. Ajit Pawar’s revelation that industrialist Gautam Adani had attended a meeting at his residence to discuss the possibility of a BJP-NCP government in 2019 led to accusations from the Opposition that the industrialist was involved in toppling the MVA government .
The Mahayuti campaign has also adopted a majoritarian theme by dropping terms such as ‘vote jihad’ and ‘dharma yuddh’ to counter the consolidation of Muslim votes in favor of MVA candidates. The BJP manifesto calls for an anti-conversion law. Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath’s slogan “batenge to katenge” was used as divisive propaganda for the BJP poll machine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slogan, “ek hain toh safe hain”, was seen as an attempt to moderate the tone.
“In the Lok Sabha polls, the Opposition set the narrative with its anti-Modi campaign and the threat that the Constitution would be changed, and the Mahayuti parties had to respond to that. In the state polls, the ruling parties seem to have set the narrative. with the Ladki Bahin Yojana and the slogan ‘batenge to katenge’ and the opposition has had to respond to that,” said senior journalist Abhay Deshpande.
How crucial will caste be for the results of the parliamentary elections? In the LS polls, the agitation for the Maratha quota led by activist Manoj Jarange led to the defeat of BJP stalwarts including Raosaheb Danve and Pankaja Munde. Although he threatened to field candidates again this time, Jarange decided to wait. The issue may simmer and provoke a response from the OBC community. But the BJP has expanded its reach among the OBCs, who form its core base.
The split of the two major regional parties – Shiv Sena and NCP – continues to cast its shadow over the state. The unlikely post-election alliances and changes in government have led voters to question the value of their vote.
Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) are participating in direct contests on 51 seats. A similar war will rage between the NCP (Sharad Pawar group) and Ajit Pawar’s NCP with 36 seats. It is unclear whether the parent party will win public sympathy in either case. The party that loses could face an exodus or political oblivion.
Rebel candidates could stir the field on both fronts. And small parties and independent parties will also play a key role in exciting battles. The smaller parties include Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, Prakash Ambedkar-led Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, the Rashtriya Samaj Paksh led by Mahadev Jankar, Hitendra Thakur-led Bahujan Vikas Aghadi.
Whichever alliance wins will face the challenge of keeping the state’s precarious financial situation under control. The debts are over Rs 7.8 lakh crore. The fiscal deficit is expected to be Rs 2 lakh crore, much above the norm. And dropping plans after winning the poll will not be an easy task.