Millennials just keep voting
In the 2018 election – the interim of Donald Trump’s presidency – turnout among younger voters increased. Nearly twice as many people in their late 20s and early 30s voted that year as four years earlier in the midterm elections. And they strongly supported Democratic candidates and helped the party regain control of Congress.
At the time, it was not clear whether the newfound political involvement of younger adults would continue beyond the Trump presidency. So far, though, it’s worked out — and it’s emerging as one of the biggest stories in American politics and a major benefit to the Democratic Party.
After each election, data analysts at Catalist, a cutting-edge research firm, publish a post-mortem report based on months of analysis of election results, voter files, and other sources. A central theme of the latest report, about the 2022 midterm elections, was that “Gen Z and Millennial voters had exceptional turnout,” as the experts at Catalist wrote. In the 14 states with heavily contested elections last year, turnout among younger voters rose even higher than in 2018.
This chart, created by my colleague Ashley Wu, offers a nice way to see the trends:
Since 2014, voter turnout among people born before 1950 has declined, mainly because more have died or been unable to vote. (Experts euphemistically refer to this dynamic as “leaving the electorate”.) Turnout among middle-aged people rose, and turnout among young voters rose even more.
Older Americans still vote at higher rates than younger Americans, but the gap has narrowed significantly over the past two decades.
Fear, not love
Why? Many younger voters have become more politically active as they fear for the country’s future. Those on the left – who make up a majority of younger voters – are concerned about climate change, access to abortion, Republican Party extremism and more. Those on the right are concerned about secularization, political correctness, illegal immigration and more.
“What seems to be driving younger voters to the polls isn’t love, it’s anger,” says Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report. has written.
Contrary to popular belief, younger voters have not automatically been liberal in US history. In 1984, Americans under 30 strongly supported Ronald Reagan’s re-election. In 2000, they were almost evenly split between George W. Bush and Al Gore.
It’s true that people tend to get a little more conservative as they get older (and millennials are, too). according to this pattern, as my colleague Nate Cohn explained). But the main factor is that generations tend to have different ideologies. People are shaped by the political zeitgeist during adolescence, according to research by Yair Ghitza, Andrew Gelman and Jonathan Auerbach has shown.
For example, Americans who came of age during the Depression and the New Deal leaned their entire lives for the Democrats. Those who grew up during the Reagan era (many of whom are part of Generation X) lean to the right. Over the past few decades, major news events, including the Iraq War, the financial crisis, the Barack Obama presidency, and the chaos of the Trump presidency, seem to have created a progressive generation.
For four consecutive national elections dating back to 2014, Democrats have won at least 60 percent of the vote among 18- to 29-year-olds. It’s the longest run since at least the 1970s, when Catalist data kicks in.
The pattern provides cause for democratic optimism. Millennials and Generation Z make up a growing portion of the electorate, while older, more conservative generations are gradually leaving the electorate. Even in the short run, age dynamics matter: a Republican will have a slightly harder time winning the presidency in 2024 than in 2020. In the long run, Republicans will struggle to win national elections unless they can appeal to more Americans who born after 1980. .
Remains a competition
With all this said, a coming period of democratic dominance is not guaranteed. The party has other weaknesses that could end up alienating more millennial and Gen Z voters.
Another theme of the Catalist report is that working-class voters of different races have recently drifted towards the Republican Party. Many of these less affluent voters seem to be affected the growing social liberalism of the Democratic Party. Many younger voters are also unsure which party offers more promising economic policies.
These concerns help explain why Florida and Texas have remained firmly Republican, to the disappointment of Democrats. The chart below compares Democratic Party performance by class and race in the past two midterm elections when a Democrat was in the White House.
I realize that the combination of trends is complex. The Democratic leanings of Americans under 40, combined with their recent surge in turnout, have become a huge asset to the party. Yet not all of these voters are committed Democrats. Many identify as independents and are more conservative than the highly educated, wealthy officials who dominate the Democratic Party and progressive groups.
In the competitive world of American politics, Democrats are stronger than Republicans among younger voters, but the battle is not over.
More about 2024
THE LAST NEWS
Train crash in India
She’s here: Rose Zhang, 20, turned pro last Thursday. On Sunday she had her first victory in the LPGA Tour, reports The Athletic.
ART AND IDEAS
Back to the cinema
Movie theaters try to entice customers back with perks like heated recliners, buttons to summon waiters, and seats that move with the action of the movie, Jane Margolies writes. But these changes could cost you: Movies on extra-large screens or in 3D cost as much as $20.