MLB Power Rankings: Dodgers, Rays rebound; Checking in on sneaky-good seasons
By Grant Brisbee, Kaitlyn McGrath and Stephen J. Nesbitt
Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.
We’re approaching the business end of the season. With six weeks remaining, the postseason races are coming into focus as are the finalists for the annual awards.
Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge are each making a strong case for the American League MVP, while Shohei Ohtani is proving that even when he’s held to only hitting, he can be the heavy favorite to win his first National League MVP and third overall. Corbin Burnes and Tarik Skubal are the leading candidates for the AL Cy Young Award, while in the NL, Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler are favored for the honor.
We can all name plenty of players having standout seasons and getting deserved recognition — but what about those players flying just under the radar? In this week’s power rankings, we set out to identify those players having sneaky good seasons for their respective ball clubs.
Record: 74-52
Last Power Ranking: 3
Sneaky-good season: RHP Gavin Stone
The Dodgers would be absolutely hosed without Stone. Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler have combined for 17 erratic and ineffective starts this season, and Clayton Kershaw rejoined the team only recently. Tyler Glasnow is on the 15-day IL, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is on the 60-day IL with shoulder issues and River Ryan needed Tommy John surgery right as he was starting to impress.
Without Stone and his modestly successful 22 starts (3.63 ERA, 4.04 FIP), there would be a lot more panic surrounding the Dodgers. They probably weren’t expecting an NL West race this close, and they definitely weren’t expecting to need 17 different starting pitchers (and counting) this season. The peripheral stats suggest that Stone won’t be dominant until he returns to missing bats like he did in the minors. The Dodgers needed one of their gaggle of young starters to be sneaky good this season, and they needed it in the worst way. — Grant Brisbee
Record: 73-52
Last Power Ranking: 1
Sneaky-good season: RHP Michael Tonkin
After the opening month he had, who would have thought the 34-year-old Tonkin would have a 2.73 ERA with the Yankees? After signing a split contract with the Mets and breaking camp with them, the journeyman reliever was DFA’d then traded to the Twins only to be DFA’d by them and picked up again by the Mets, who subsequently DFA’d him once more after which he was claimed by the Yankees — all before the end of April. But after a blown save in his Yankees debut, Tonkin has found a home in the Bronx and earned his way into Aaron Boone’s circle of trust. Upping the usage of his two-seam fastball along with some runway to get comfortable seems to be the recipe Tonkin needed to put together a sneaky good season after a chaotic start. — Kaitlyn McGrath
Record: 73-51
Last Power Ranking: 4
Sneaky-good season: RHP Orion Kerkering
Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm have been the standouts from the Phillies bullpen — and both received well-earned All-Star nods because of it. But behind them, having a season just as good, though perhaps more under the radar has been rookie Orion Kerkering, who has a 2.51 ERA in 47 appearances with 53 strikeouts in 46 2/3 innings. He’s succeeded especially by limiting hard contact, holding the opposition to a 31.4 percent hard-hit rate that ranks in the 92nd percentile in the majors. Kerkering shot through the Phillies system last year, and made his MLB debut last September. Expectations were high for Kerkering this season, and he has lived up to them. — McGrath
Record: 73-53
Last Power Ranking: 2
Sneaky-good season: 1B/OF/DH Ryan O’Hearn
O’Hearn had five unremarkable years with the Kansas City Royals, compiling a .683 OPS, before he was DFA’d and landed with the Orioles in 2023 in a make-or-break year for his career. The first baseman broke out and he’s carried that success into this season, too. The left-handed hitter has a .801 OPS in 107 games and has been particularly effective against right-handed pitching, with an .818 OPS and all 12 of his home runs coming in situations where he has the platoon advantage. On a team with many big hitters, O’Hearn is making the most of his part-time role and for that reason, he’s authoring one of the best sneaky good seasons. — McGrath
Record: 72-52
Last Power Ranking: 6
Sneaky-good season: 3B Joey Ortiz
The seriously good Brewers have had no shortage of sneaky good seasons — we’ve previously noted Jackson Chourio and Bryan Hudson and Brice Turang — so we’re going with a guy who’s mostly flown under the radar. After going to Milwaukee in the Corbin Burnes trade last offseason, Ortiz has played plus defense at third base and been a steady contributor at the plate: .248/.345/.401, eight homers, seven steals. There’s more power in the bat than he’s shown so far this season, but in the meantime, he’s getting on base and displaying exceptional plate discipline to help lengthen the Brewers lineup. A 3 WAR rookie season won’t win hardware, given the competition, but it’s still sneaky good. — Stephen Nesbitt
Record: 72-52
Last Power Ranking: 5
Sneaky-good season: RHP Hunter Gaddis
Sorry Cade Smith, but once you get the Ken Rosenthal notebook treatment you’re not sneaking by anyone anymore. So let’s go with the Guardians’ other set-up guy. Gaddis entered this season with a 6.57 ERA in almost 50 innings in the majors. That stinks! So when he started the season with 13 consecutive scoreless relief outings, that was a surprise. Then when he served up six runs across his next three outings, that was not a surprise. And yet, entering this week, Gaddis has allowed only four earned runs since the start of May. That’s an 0.84 ERA in 42 2/3 innings, cutting his season ERA to 1.40. Good luck staying sneaky good at that rate. Just look at this stuff! — Nesbitt
Hunter Gaddis, Filth. 😷 pic.twitter.com/FAjIRzAjOw
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 25, 2024
Record: 71-55
Last Power Ranking: 8
Sneaky-good season: C Kyle Higashioka
Sometimes you have the kind of season where almost nothing goes right. Like, say, most of the seasons in Padres franchise history. But sometimes you have the kind of season where even the backup catcher is contributing. Higashioka’s on-base skills still leave a lot to be desired, but he’s hit 14 home runs in just 189 plate appearances, which is more than anyone in the Yankees’ infield this season.
The Padres were just looking for a catcher who wouldn’t mess things up, but they stumbled onto an accidental dinger machine, which is just how this team is rolling right now. — Brisbee
Record: 70-55
Last Power Ranking: 9
Sneaky-good season: 1B Carlos Santana
None of the other first basemen who were free agents last offseason have come close to matching the 38-year-old Santana’s value this season. Not Cody Bellinger. Not Rhys Hoskins. Not Rowdy Tellez or Joey Gallo or Matt Carpenter. The Twins signed Santana for $5 million, and he’s delivered a .241/.330/.432 slash line (112 OPS+) with 18 homers while playing outrageously good defense. He has accrued 13 outs above average, which is No. 1 among first basemen and twice as many as any first baseman not named Christian Walker (11 OAA). Pairing that defense with an excellent eye and solid switch-hitting pop, I don’t see why Santana wouldn’t keep finding one-year deals and play into his 40s. — Nesbitt
Record: 70-56
Last Power Ranking: 7
Sneaky-good season: Justin Martínez
Martínez has a National League Championship ring from his time with the Diamondbacks last season, but that doesn’t mean that he actually contributed. He walked 11 batters in 10 major-league innings, which was only slightly worse than the 48 batters he walked in 49 1/3 innings in Triple A. It would have been possible to make a list of “The 50 players who are likely to contribute to the 2024 Diamondbacks” without including Martínez.
Stuff is stuff, though, and Martínez has stuff. He’s one of the only pitchers who averages 100 mph on his fastball, and his Baseball Savant page is dripping with red ink (the good kind). If the Diamondbacks are going to get back to the World Series, they’ll need relievers. Here’s a sneaky good one. — Brisbee
Record: 68-56
Last Power Ranking: 11
Sneaky-good season: C Victor Caratini
Boy, did Astros fans deserve this one after suffering through three straight miserable offensive seasons from Martín Maldonado. The former Astros catcher had 1,212 plate appearances over the last three seasons, with a .183/.260/.333 slash line. He was under the Mendoza Line in all three. You might be thinking that he made up for all this with his speed, but that’s a common misconception. He actually wasn’t very fast at all.
The Astros found their primary catcher of the future last season, Yainer Diaz, and he’s having another excellent season. But when it’s time to rest him and keep him fresh, the Astros can turn to Caratini without losing too much offense. That’s the dream for every team. They all want a backup catcher who can hit a little, but that’s incredibly difficult to find. Here’s a fan base that appreciates it even more than others might. — Brisbee
Record: 70-55
Last Power Ranking: 10
Sneaky-good season: The starting rotation
When The Athletic’s Jim Bowden ranked every starting rotation before the season, the Royals were 23rd. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince didn’t even give them an honorable mention in his preseason top 10, either. Both writers were dead on about the Mariners and Phillies, who rank first and second, respectively, in rotation ERA this season. But third? That’s the Royals, at 3.56.
The current rotation stacks up like this:
Seth Lugo: 3.04 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, 159 2/3 IP
Cole Ragans: 3.18 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 147 1/3 IP
Brady Singer: 3.18 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 141 2/3 IP
Michael Wacha: 3.33 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 127 IP
Michael Lorenzen: 2.87 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 15 2/3 IP
Ragans-Lugo-Singer isn’t the most intimidating starting three for a wild-card series, but, boy, they’re going to give the Royals a good chance to win. — Nesbitt
Record: 66-58
Last Power Ranking: 13
Sneaky-good season: RHP Jesse Chavez
We know what you’re thinking. Is Jesse Chavez still pitching? Is he pitching well? For the Atlanta Braves? The answer to those three questions is a resounding yes! The 40-year-old continues to be a reliable arm out of the bullpen for Atlanta, where he’s cultivated a legend status and earned the nickname “coach” in the clubhouse. In his 17th (!) season pitching in the majors — a career that includes stops with nine teams — Chavez has a 2.85 ERA in 39 appearances with 47 strikeouts in 53 2/3 innings. The veteran has been particularly effective with runners in scoring position, holding the opposition to a .127 batting average in those situations. — McGrath
Record: 65-59
Last Power Ranking: 14
Sneaky-good season: RF Wilyer Abreu
When former Red Sox GM Chaim Bloom dealt Christian Vázquez to the Astros at the 2022 trade deadline for prospects Enmanuel Valdez and Abreu, there was consternation from the fanbase for moving on from the fan-favorite catcher. Two years later, however, the deal looks like a win for Boston, thanks in part to the play of Abreu. (Although apologies to Bloom will have to be forwarded to St. Louis, where he is now an advisor after being fired by the Red Sox.) The right-fielder had a .836 OPS through 96 games with 14 home runs, including a pair of emotional ones earlier this month. As the Red Sox try to desperately stay in the mix for a wild-card spot this year, Abreu at least looks like he’ll be a part of the solution in Boston for years to come. — McGrath
Record: 64-62
Last Power Ranking: 12
Sneaky-good season: CF Victor Robles
Quick, how old do you think Robles is? I would have guessed 30, and that he was a Nationals prospect a decade ago, if not more. Heck, he was a prospect for so long, you could have convinced me he was in the Expos’ system.
He just turned 27. While he’s probably not going to turn into an All-Star, he’s currently one of the only Mariners hitters with any idea how to hit a baseball, which makes him a precious gem. A .345 OBP with 14 steals and strong defense? Break out the rye bread and the salami, grandma, because you’re going to need to eat something while you’re hammering out a 12-year contract extension for the guy. — Brisbee
Record: 65-60
Last Power Ranking: 15
Sneaky-good season: LHP Sean Manaea
In the crowded NL wild-card race, we don’t know yet whether the Mets can make a late charge for the last spot. But what we do know is that starter Manaea has likely pitched his way into a neat multi-year deal this winter. The left-hander has a 3.46 ERA in 24 starts. According to ERA+, this has been his best season since 2018, when he had a 3.59 ERA in 27 starts for the Oakland Athletics. A free agent in the winter, Manaea has made the most of his platform year, while also helping the Mets at least remain competitive down the stretch. As one of the top left-handed starters available, Manaea’s sneaky good season could pay off big in the offseason. — McGrath
Record: 62-62
Last Power Ranking: 19
Sneaky-good season: LHP Garrett Cleavinger
This is what the Rays do. They take a relatively unknown pitcher, perhaps a guy who bounced around, and make him into one of the game’s most feared arms out of the bullpen. Enter this year’s example, Cleavinger, who previously pitched for the Phillies and Dodgers before finding a home in Tampa Bay. In 54 appearances, the left-hander has a 2.81 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 48 innings. His 29 percent strikeout rate ranks in the top 20 of qualified AL relievers and his average exit velocity of 86.5 mph ranks in the top 10 percent of the majors, making him one of the toughest relievers to square up. Thanks to advice from fellow Rays pitcher Drew Rasmussen, Cleavinger has found success splitting his breaking ball into two pitches — his previous slider and a new sweeper that’s held batters to a .275 slugging percentage. Cleavinger is yet another reminder of the Tampa Bay Way. — McGrath
Record: 64-63
Last Power Ranking: 16
Sneaky-good season: LHP Erik Miller
Miller is a left-handed reliever who’s built like a power forward or tight end and throws 100 mph with occasionally nasty secondary pitches. The Giants got him from the Phillies for Yunior Marte, and it’s looking like a steal so far.
Don’t blame the Phillies (too much) for giving up on Miller. His stuff was obvious, but his command and control were dreadful, and he had a career 5.8 BB/9 in the minors. Something clicked for him, though, and since the beginning of May, he’s had a 2.90 ERA, with 47 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings. The walks still need to come way, way down, but he’s been a large part of a Giants bullpen that’s gotten more reliable as the season has progressed. — Brisbee
Record: 61-64
Last Power Ranking: 18
Sneaky-good season: 1B Michael Busch
We’ve really rankled Cubs fans lately by not mentioning Busch among the top NL Rookie of the Year candidates. “If he were a Yankee,” one reader wrote, “the clarion call from the Bronx would be deafening.” Consider this your clarion call, Chicago! After arriving in a trade from Los Angeles, Busch started the season white hot and has been remarkably steady all summer. He’s providing standout defense at first base and a blend of on-base and power at the plate. It remains concerning that Busch has struck out in 31.2 percent of his plate appearances in the majors, but odds are that will come down slightly over time. — Nesbitt
Record: 61-63
Last Power Ranking: 17
Sneaky-good season: 1B/DH Alec Burleson
If you’d have told a Cardinals fan this spring that Burleson in his sophomore season would hit .280 with about 25 dingers and 10 steals, they’d have asked if they could give you a big ol’ hug. That’s a great year! Burleson has some obvious flaws in his profile, but there’s been a lot more good than bad. The biggest knock against Burleson: his atrocious defensive numbers. He played out of position much of the summer, bouncing between left and right field despite having no business being out there. Burleson could wind up being on the large side of a platoon, as he’s struggled mightily against lefties, but with his bat-to-ball skills and barrels he should remain a useful hitter for years to come. — Nesbitt
Record: 61-64
Last Power Ranking: 20
Sneaky-good season: RHP Nick Martinez
Martinez has been sneaky good since returning in 2022 from a four-year stint in Japan. He had a 3.45 ERA over 216 2/3 innings for the Padres across the 2022 and 2023 seasons, and has seen similar success in a bulk role with the Reds this season: 3.25 ERA in 97 innings. Martinez is a soft-contact savant. What’s changed this year, though, is that he’s simply not permitting walks. He’s the only MLB pitcher (minimum 90 innings) averaging less than a walk per nine innings this year; he has not allowed multiple walks in any outing. Cincinnati is a hard place to pitch, and Martinez has a much worse ERA at home (4.42) than away (1.71), but limiting walks and homers is a great recipe anywhere. — Nesbitt
Record: 61-64
Last Power Ranking: 23
Sneaky-good season: CF Parker Meadows
A sneaky good stretch has saved Meadows’ season. One of the most gifted defensive outfielders in the game, Meadows was optioned to Triple A in May because he was batting .096. He returned to Detroit in July and had four hits in a series sweep of Cincinnati, then suffered a hamstring strain. He recovered, returned and hasn’t stopped hitting. He’s 20-for-57 (.351) with eight extra-base hits in 15 games since being recalled from the minors, and the Tigers are 12-3 in those games. After tallying three hits, including a walk-off single, in the leadoff spot against the Yankees on Sunday night, Meadows saw his season batting average rise above .200 for the first time all season. Considering where Meadows was a few months ago, the Mendoza Line never looked so impressive. — Nesbitt
Parker Meadows walks it off! Dan Dickerson on the call #RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/ckU1zwmTCL
— Dan Dickerson Calls📞 (@dannydHRs) August 19, 2024
Record: 58-66
Last Power Ranking: T-21
Sneaky-good season: C Joey Bart
The Pirates’ inability to identify their catcher of the future is not a new issue. They haven’t drafted one, haven’t signed one. When they added Bart, who’d busted in San Francisco, in a minor trade this spring, few thought they’d found a long-term contributor. But Bart has been one of the Pirates’ best hitters this season, with a .351 OBP, .882 OPS and career-high 12 homers. Bart’s defensive numbers are poor, so perhaps he’s a short-term solution at catcher, but if he hits like this the Pirates will gladly take him as the first baseman of the future. — Nesbitt
Record: 58-68
Last Power Ranking: T-21
Sneaky-good season: RHP David Robertson
Try to find another candidate for a sneaky good season on the Rangers. Go on, I dare you. The story of their season has been a surfeit of aggressively lousy seasons, nothing sneaky about it. So we’ll go with Robertson, who was in the same draft class with Max Scherzer and Joba Chamberlain, roughly six decades ago. He was teammates with a rehabbing Roger Clemens on the 2007 Trenton Thunder, and Clemens was in the Red Sox organization when Carl Yastrzemski was still playing. You can get from Robertson to Babe Ruth in five steps.
Robertson is also having a sneaky good season. Again. Not bad for a 39-year-old who had to pitch for the High Point Rockers a couple years ago just to get teams to notice him. — Brisbee
Record: 58-67
Last Power Ranking: 24
Sneaky-good season: RHP Chad Green
Green survived the Blue Jays’ purge at the trade deadline, and it’s a good thing he did because he has been far and away their best reliever. The veteran right-hander has a 1.82 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 39 2/3 innings. With their regular closer Jordan Romano on the 60-day IL and backup closer Yimi García traded to the Mariners at the deadline, Green stepped into the closer role and has gone a perfect 13-for-13 in save opportunities. There hasn’t been much good to come out of this season for Toronto, but Green’s first full season back after Tommy John surgery has been a bright spot and he’s also signed through next season. — McGrath
Record: 56-69
Last Power Ranking: 25
Sneaky-good season: RHP Jake Irvin
A year ago, Irvin looked like he might be a guy who could at the very least fill innings for the Nationals which is useful, if not spectacular. But this season, the 27-year-old right-hander has shown more promise and moved in the right direction. In 26 starts, Irvin has a 3.81 ERA and his 151 innings pitched lead all pitchers on the Nationals while his 2.7 bWAR is behind only CJ Abrams for the most on the team. A key to his success has been cutting his walk rate nearly in half, from 10.2 percent last season to 5.7 percent this season. If the Nationals are going to return to relevancy again, they’ll need the likes of Abrams, James Wood and MacKenzie Gore to perform. But after this sneaky good season, Irvin is showing that he too can be a key part of the future. — McGrath
Record: 54-71
Last Power Ranking: 27
Sneaky-good season: RHP Osvaldo Bido
Sometimes it’s good to be a team without a chance at the postseason. Experimentation is encouraged, if not necessary, and that’s how the A’s can follow a hunch and convert a 28-year-old minor-league free-agent reliever into a starter. Let’s not go overboard with his success in six starts, but the early returns are encouraging. Last year, he struggled with his command in the Pirates organization. This year, he’s allowing some of the weakest contact in the league. He has the lowest hard-hit percentage in the game. Exit velocity data is just as encouraging.
There will be an adjustment from the rest of the league. Each start will give opponents new ways to attack him. After another month, we’ll have a better idea if Bido is for real. My suspicion is that his command will need to improve for him to be a bonafide starter, but he’s done well so far. — Brisbee
Record: 53-72
Last Power Ranking: 26
Sneaky-good season: SS Zach Neto
Angels fans probably don’t think that Neto’s season needs an adjective. He’s just been good. He has a .779 OPS, which is 15 percent better than the average hitter, except he’s doing it as an excellent defensive shortstop. It’s less a sneaky good season and more of a sneaky great season.
We’ll let it qualify for this exercise because we’ll stretch the exercise to allow Neto’s breakout season to feel sneaky good about the Angels franchise as a whole. No, seriously. They drafted Neto 13th overall just two years ago, and he’s already thriving in the majors and looking like a franchise cornerstone. The organization has a long way to go, but developing an excellent shortstop is a heckuva start. Go on. Be a little positive about the Angels. As a treat. — Brisbee
Record: 46-79
Last Power Ranking: 29
Sneaky-good season: 1B/3B Jake Burger
It didn’t always look like Jake Burger would be on this list. As the Marlins were off to their dreadful start, the 28-year-old infielder had a .635 OPS with only 10 home runs in 73 games during the first half. But Burger has turned it on in the second half. In 28 games since the All-Star break, Burger has hit .321 with a 1.161 OPS. He’s hit 14 home runs in that span — including a stretch of eight games in August where he homered seven times. Thanks to the hot stretch, Burger has his season wRC+ back up to 113 which is in line with the rest of his career. It hasn’t been a memorable season in Miami, but Burger may have found a way to salvage his. — McGrath
Record: 46-79
Last Power Ranking: 28
Sneaky-good season: 1B/OF Michael Toglia
Toglia is an extremely large, switch-hitting first baseman who was drafted in the first round in 2019, only to get sucked into the COVID-19 maelstrom that cost minor leaguers a full season of proper development. He’s behind schedule compared to the typical first-round first baseman, but it’s not hard to guess why.
He’s up now, though, and he’s raking in the second half. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and he’s already hit 20 homers. The most exciting part for the Rockies might be that he’s been even better on the road, which isn’t supposed to happen. The organization’s future is still dull and frustrating, but getting value out of first-round picks, even if it takes a few years, is how they’re going to get out of this mess. — Brisbee
Record: 30-96
Last Power Ranking: 30
Sneaky-good season: RHP Jonathan Cannon
Do you understand what you’re asking of me? The White Sox don’t have a position player above 0.5 fWAR. Their only pitcher above 1 fWAR is All-Star Garrett Crochet, who was the talk of July and therefore not at all sneaky.
There really is only one option, other than the under, and that’s Cannon. The former Georgia Bulldog has had a couple starts go sideways, but the overall line — 4.02 ERA, 4.70 FIP, 1.30 WHIP in 80 2/3 innings — is solid enough. Cannon has command but lacks swing-and-miss stuff. We’ll see how that goes. Normally Cannon would just be a bright spot for a bad team. But he has a big job the rest of the way: helping the White Sox try to avoid the most losses in modern history. — Nesbitt
(Top photo of Brandon Lowe: Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)
