Modi meets Putin in Moscow as India charts its own course

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, a visit that shows the Indian leader is determined to pursue his own diplomatic path even as the West continues to isolate Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

For Mr. Putin, Mr. Modi’s visit will be a way for Russia to show that the Kremlin maintains a strong partnership with India, even as the world’s fifth-largest economy has deepened its ties with the United States. India’s purchases of discounted Russian oil have helped fill Russian coffers drained by international sanctions over the war, and Russia has sought to position India as a partner in reshaping the Western-dominated global order.

This is Mr Modi’s first visit to Russia in five years. He is expected to land in Moscow on Monday and attend a dinner hosted by Mr Putin. The two leaders will discuss trade, energy and military ties when they meet for talks on Tuesday.

The South Asian nation became a major buyer of cheap Russian oil at a time when Western sanctions limited what Russia could sell or charge for the product on international markets. India is building massive nuclear power plants with technical assistance from Russia. Russia is also India’s largest supplier of arms, making the relationship crucial for India, which has long had to defend its borders against China.

The meeting in Moscow on Tuesday was scheduled to coincide with the first day of a high-profile summit of NATO leaders in Washington. At the NATO meeting, Western allies are expected to announce additional air defense systems for Ukraine and provide assurances about the alliance’s long-term commitment to Kiev’s security.

Speaking to reporters in New Delhi ahead of Modi’s trip, Indian officials said: the summit between Mr Modi and Mr Putin was of “great importance”, but stressed that relations with Russia were not focused on a third party. They also tried to play down the timing of the meeting.

“I don’t want to read anything more into it in terms of its significance, except that we attach great importance to this annual summit,” Vinay Mohan Kwatra, India’s foreign minister, said at a news conference on Friday.

The annual summit is one aspect of a longstanding strategic partnership between India and Russia, though the two leaders last met as part of it in 2021 when Mr. Putin visited Delhi. They have met at other events and spoken several times by phone, Indian officials said.

In the nearly two and a half years since launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin has sought to double down on his relationships with world leaders outside the West as he seeks what he calls a “multipolar” world order free of unilateral American dominance.

With its vast economic and military resources, China has become the main partner in that effort, but Putin has also touted relations with other countries, including Vietnam, Brazil and India, to prove that Russia will not succumb to the isolation the West hopes to see.

At an investment forum in Moscow last December, Mr. Putin praised the Indian leader for pursuing an independent foreign policy and refusing to bow to Western pressure. Mr. Modi is not “afraid, intimidated or forced to take actions or decisions that are against the national interests of India and the Indian people,” Mr. Putin said.

For Mr. Modi, the meeting is a chance to signal India’s determination to determine its own foreign policy. India, which needs both the United States and Russia to counter China, has been constantly trying to balance its relationship between Washington and Moscow. Even as it has strengthened ties with Washington, India has refused to publicly condemn Russia over Ukraine, despite pressure from the United States to do so.

Delhi could strengthen its ties with Russia to counter Russia’s growing rapprochement with China, said Happymon Jacob, an associate professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and an expert on Indian foreign policy. Putin and President Xi Jinping of China have been increasingly aligned after announcing a borderless partnership in 2022. (The two leaders praised their countries’ ties at a meeting in Kazakhstan last week.)

India likely realizes that it is “unlikely that the United States will punish India for continuing its relationship with Russia,” Mr. Jacob said, with China emerging as Washington’s “main adversary.”

Mr. Modi could also raise the contentious issue of Russia’s recruitment of Indian citizens to fight the war against Ukraine, said Mr. Kwatra, India’s foreign minister. Several dozen Indian citizens were lured to Russia under “false pretenses,” he said, and the government was working to bring them back.

At the same time, India also needs US support against potential Chinese aggression in its backyard. China and India have had several border clashes in recent decades, including in 2022 and 2020, when 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops were killed. India needs ammunition to defend its northern and eastern borders.

Russia is India’s largest supplier of military equipment, but over the years the share of Russian weapons has declined — partly because the country has older technology. India has sought to diversify its sources of military supplies and pursue defense cooperation agreements, including with the United States. And the United States and India have also said they would expand cooperation in advanced weapons, supercomputers and other high-tech areas.

But U.S. officials worry about supplying equipment and sensitive technology to India if there is a risk that the Russian military will gain access to it. During a recent visit to New Delhi, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said the United States wanted a strong technology relationship with India and was clear about “what areas are affected by the ongoing relationship between India and Russia in the military and technological fields.”

India’s defence ties with Russia “may be an irritant to the United States, but are not enough to thwart Washington’s military cooperation with India,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, who oversees the Eurasia Studies Program at the Observer Research Foundation.

Mr Unnikrishnan said he did not expect India to announce new military purchases from Russia during the summit. But he thought the leaders would announce deals in trade and investment and energy cooperation.

Indian officials have said the country’s trade deficit with Russia will be a priority for Mr. Modi. India exports just $4 billion worth of goods to Russia and imports $65 billion, much of it due to purchases of huge amounts of oil. India wants to increase its exports to Russia across the board, including agriculture, pharmaceuticals and services.

Paul Sonne contributed to this report from Berlin.