NFL decision-makers’ predictions for 2024: Caleb Williams delivers, Cowboys struggle, more

For the third consecutive summer, The Athletic polled some of the NFL’s most prominent decision-makers to get a feel for their expectations this season.

Twenty-seven coaches and executives were asked the same seven questions throughout training camp and the preseason. They voted on the condition of anonymity, and some abstained from certain questions.

Let’s get to the results.

Who will win MVP? (26 votes)

This question has been asked in all three annual surveys, and this was the most lopsided result ever.

Patrick Mahomes, coming off his third Super Bowl victory, proved last season he can overcome adversity and elevate his team as well as nearly any quarterback in history.

“It’s hard not to say Mahomes,” a general manager said. “He’s Michael Jordan.”

Mahomes, a two-time MVP, was also the pick last year. He ultimately finished seventh on the league’s MVP ballot, well behind Lamar Jackson.

“Until someone proves otherwise, it’s Mahomes,” another general manager said. “Until somebody knocks off the king, he stands.”

The Aaron Rodgers sentiment was interesting. Even though he only got one vote, he earned consideration from others who believed the 40-year-old would be a shoo-in if he sparked a New York Jets resurgence, especially after missing all but four snaps a season ago.

Matthew Stafford could be another popular candidate if the Los Angeles Rams perform as well as many expect. Saquon Barkley, the lone non-QB selected, was an unconventional pick because a running back hasn’t won the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012, but there’s merit to his candidacy after changing teams. He’d have a shot if he leads the Philadelphia Eagles to a bounce-back season.

You’re starting a franchise from scratch. Who are the top three QBs you’d want? (27 votes)

(Note: Voters were asked to consider age and contracts.)

This was a recycled question with a twist, adding the age and contracts into the mix to spawn different viewpoints. With the explosion of QB contracts, there’s a premium on creativity in team building.

Mahomes was on 25 of 27 ballots, so there wasn’t much of a need to overthink that one. He’s won two of his three Super Bowls since signing his 10-year, $450 million deal in 2020, so that’s hardly been a hindrance.

From there, voters were torn between taking QBs with long-proven talent and big deals or potential and rookie contracts. That’s why C.J. Stroud came in second. Though the Houston Texans QB is highly regarded after a phenomenal rookie season, most of his voters noted the contract was a big reason for the selection. He won’t be eligible for a new deal until 2026.

Brock Purdy is also still on his rookie contract. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, the top two selections in this year’s draft, also were noteworthy picks for the poll.

One more interesting note: Joe Burrow maintained the edge over Allen despite being tied for the lead in average annual value ($55 million). However, it’s been speculated Josh Allen’s deal ($43 million annually) could eventually get restructured to keep up with the evolving market.

“I love Joe Burrow,” a coach said. “The toughness, playing through that high ankle sprain like that, I don’t care what anybody says. He should have sat out so many games, and to win that many games, I love him. He’s one of my favorites.”

Who is the league’s best offensive player (non-QB)? (26 votes)

Justin Jefferson took this category last year in a blowout, but Tyreek Hill and Christian McCaffrey closed the gap by setting historic paces in 2023 before getting shut down late with injuries.

The Minnesota Vikings star is viewed as the most polished receiver on the planet, but Hill’s blinding speed is a unique asset for the Miami Dolphins.

“He changes the game,” another general manager said of Hill.

McCaffrey led the league last season with 1,459 rushing yards, 2,023 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns. Williams, who paved the way for many of those yards, got a vote for the second year in a row.

Who is the league’s best defensive player? (26 votes)

Myles Garrett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, took the vote by a landslide margin.

“Freak show,” a head coach said.

Garrett tallied 14 sacks last season and has recorded double-digit QB takedowns each of the past six years. Still just 28 years old, Garrett appears poised to take the torch from retired Rams legend Aaron Donald as the league’s best defender.

“Don’t overthink it,” a Garrett voter said.

One offensive coordinator wanted to pick Donald just in case he decided to unretire. Another voter abstained because “It’s not Aaron Donald anymore.”

Twenty-four of the 26 votes went to edge players. Garrett, Nick Bosa and T.J. Watt were the last three to win Defensive Player of the Year, so that’s the way the league has been trending. Micah Parsons took this category last year when Garrett didn’t receive a vote, which shows just how much his reputation has changed in a short time.

Which QB will deliver the best rookie season? (26 votes)

This wasn’t overly surprising. Williams had been the consensus No. 1 pick for months before the draft, and he joined a Chicago Bears offense that is loaded at each of the skill positions.

“Because of the opportunity and skill,” a head coach who voted for Williams said.

There are still question marks with the Bears offensive line, but the other four first-round QBs (excluding Minnesota’s J.J. McCarthy, who is out for the year with a torn meniscus) have greater concerns with their supporting casts.

“Best situation,” an offensive coordinator said of Williams.

Bo Nix was the sixth QB off the board, but two of the voters made it clear why they thought he’d be the best rookie.

“Because of Sean Payton,” an executive said. Another coach added, “Sean will have him going.”

Williams was almost immediately named the Bears’ starter. Daniels won the Washington Commanders job fairly quickly, too. Nix was in a tighter QB battle with Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson, but the writing was on the wall for the rookie to win the job.

McCarthy earned some consideration before his injury. Voters were reluctant to consider Drake Maye because the New England Patriots publicly showed their hand while deferring to veteran Jacoby Brissett, even before naming him the starter. Michael Penix Jr. won’t play for the Atlanta Falcons unless Kirk Cousins goes down.

So this vote wasn’t a referendum on the QBs’ careers. It was just pretty obvious how the panel viewed Williams’ talent and the team around him.

“You want to pick someone who you know is going to play,” a general manager said.

Name three teams that will surprise in a good way. (21 votes)

The league has spoken, and they love where the Arizona Cardinals are heading.

They were well coached last year by Jonathan Gannon despite not having a lot of talent, and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is extremely well regarded around the NFL. General manager Monti Ossenfort has done a good job in the draft, according to rival executives, and he’s building the roster with a clear vision.

“I’ve got a feeling (quarterback) Kyler (Murray) is going to have a bounce-back year,” a head coach said. “I really like their offensive coordinator. I like the scheme they run.”

The drawback? The Cardinals are chasing three very strong teams in the NFC West.

The Falcons don’t have as much of a challenge in the NFC South where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the last three division titles, though they’ve done it with a combined 17-17 regular-season record over the past couple of seasons.

There’s plenty of optimism in Atlanta with the arrival of head coach Raheem Morris, offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and quarterback Kirk Cousins.

“I buy into Raheem and his ability to motivate and to have that team going in the right direction,” an executive said. “It’s a weak division … and they should have some growth on defense.”

Another new coach, Jim Harbaugh, has changed the perception.

“It’s the Harbaugh effect,” an executive said. “They’re going to run the ball and play good defense. That’s a tough division. The quarterback could be elite when they don’t make him throw 50 times a game.”

The Rams only got one vote, likely because they’re coming off another playoff appearance, but it’s clear head coach Sean McVay has maintained his reputation among the league’s best.

“The Rams are going to give San Fran a run for their money just simply because that guy does a hell of a job coaching and culture building,” a general manager said.

The Cincinnati Bengals, who missed the playoffs last season in part because of Burrow’s injury issues, shouldn’t be dismissed.

“If Cincinnati stays healthy, with the quarterback, they’ll push to win that division,” a general manager said.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are another candidate to rebound after dealing with injuries while losing five of their last six and missing the playoffs.

“The Jaguars have a talented roster,” an executive said. “I think (quarterback Trevor Lawrence) is going to take a step, and they have enough weapons and talent on defense that they could win some games if they stay healthy.”

Last year, the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks and Jaguars finished in the top four. All had winning records.

Name three teams that will surprise in a bad way. (21 votes)

The Dallas Cowboys, who have three consecutive 12-win seasons, have more than enough talent to continue to keep pace in the NFC. But on the heels of another shocking playoff dud and with head coach Mike McCarthy on the hot seat, Dak Prescott’s contract situation and the loss of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, it’s easy to identify why the Cowboys could be vulnerable to distractions.

“Losing the defensive coordinator is going to be a huge deal, and I think it’s a big difference in scheme from what they did before,” an executive said. “They’re plenty talented. It’s just a hard place to win.”

Aside from the Cowboys having a heavy presence in this category, it’s notable the next three teams play in the AFC East. Clearly, the voters believe that division is going to take a big step back.

“Miami will have a hard time matching what they got last year with 11 wins. Their defense is hampered,” a general manager said. “I think the Jets’ expectations are unrealistic.”

One voter who selected the Buffalo Bills still thought Allen would be more than capable of proving him wrong.

“Easier said than done, stopping that big (QB),” the coach said.

This category always gives voters the most trouble because the goal posts can move based on one’s expectations. The Lions got three votes, for example, not because anyone expects the bottom to fall out but because they’re being tabbed as a Super Bowl contender.

“I think Detroit will fall back a little bit,” a general manager said. “They’re hyped as much as they can be hyped.”

It’s always interesting to compare the results of the last two questions of this survey to get an overall feel for teams’ expectations. For example, the Cardinals were a net plus-7 (seven votes in the “good” category, zero in the “bad” category).

The Seahawks (plus-6), Colts (plus-5), Falcons (plus-5), Chargers (plus-4), Commanders (plus-3), Bears (plus-3), Broncos (plus-2), Raiders (plus-2) and Titans (plus-1) had the most favorable results and the Cowboys (minus-9), Dolphins (minus-6), Bills (minus-5), Niners (minus-4), Packers (minus-3), Lions (minus-3), Saints (minus-2), Jets (minus-2), Giants (minus-2) and Browns (minus-2) all swung most heavily in the other direction.

(Photo illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos of Justin Jefferson, Patrick Mahomes and Caleb Williams: Ryan Kang / Getty Images, Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images and Todd Rosenberg / Getty Images)