NFL playoff projections 2024: The Athletic’s model predicts the field

Welcome to our 2024 NFL projections, where you will find each team’s probability of conquering its division, advancing through the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. The projections are based on 100,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, which factors in each team’s projected strength, current health as well as its remaining schedule. All projections and probabilities are rounded to the nearest whole number. You can read more about the model at the bottom of the page. The projections will be updated regularly throughout each week.