NFL Projection Model, AFC Win Total: Can Anyone Dethrone the Chiefs?

August 19, 2024

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NFL Projection Model, AFC Win Total: Can Anyone Dethrone the Chiefs?

Does anyone in the AFC West have a chance to dethrone Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? Are the Buffalo Bills still kings of the AFC East? In less than three weeks, we’ll start getting our answers.

But in the meantime, with the rosters nearly complete, it’s time to fire up my NFL Projection Model to get a sense of the situation for the upcoming NFL season. Today, we’ll look at the projected win totals for every team in the AFC to see what we can expect from this conference during the 2024 season. We’ll take a look at the NFC on Tuesday.

As a reminder, my NFL Projection model takes play-by-play data and creates an offensive and defensive projection for each team. From there, I simulate every game this season — repeating this process 100,000 times — to see how many games a team is likely to win, how often they’ll make the playoffs or win their division, and even win the Super Bowl. But today, we’re just going to focus on the number of games won.

NFL Projection Model: AFC

AFC East

The Bills have won four straight AFC East titles, but after a season of roster changes, highlighted by the trade of wide receiver Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, there are doubts about Buffalo’s chances of winning a fifth straight title.

Well, according to my model, no.

Sure, it’s more exciting than in years past, but the Bills are still the team to beat in the East. Josh Allen is the best non-Mahomes quarterback in the NFL, and the other two division contenders still have questions.

Miami just signed Tua Tagovailoa to a mega extension, but the Dolphins offense has failed to do so against quality competition. The New York Jets want to get a full season out of a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but he’s almost 40 and nursing an Achilles injury, so what’s a realistic expectation? Yes, the defense should be elite, but I still have concerns about the offense. And for what it’s worth, the Indianapolis Colts have won as many AFC East titles as the Jets since 1999, despite playing in the AFC South since 2002. The analysis of this division simply comes down to whether you think the Jets can squeeze more out of Rodgers or the Dolphins can squeeze more out of Tagovailoa to beat the Bills. My model would bet on Allen taking the Buffalo offense to the next level as they defend the throne.

AFC North

You won’t find a division closer to the top than the AFC North. My model has the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals separated by just 0.03 wins, which favors the Bengals.

While the model acknowledges that Baltimore has the best roster, the Ravens need to play a schedule that puts them in first place, while the Bengals benefit from a schedule that puts them in fourth place.

The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers close out the division, as my model projects both teams to regress from last year’s success. Both teams still have questions at quarterback and are relying on great defenses. That’s not a healthy strategy year-to-year. Ultimately, an offense has to show up to consistently make the playoffs and achieve postseason success. Taking it a step further, the Browns went 6-2 in one-score games last year, while the Steelers went 9-2. It’s safe to say that Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s 17-year streak of .500-or-better records is in jeopardy.

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AFC South

This might be the most fun division in the AFC this season. Young, exciting quarterbacks with upside lead every team.

CJ Stroud led the Houston Texans to a division crown last year. While he had a historic rookie season, it’s hard to say if there will be a jump in Year 2 because of how good he was last year. Keep in mind that the Texans are going from a fourth-place schedule to a first-place schedule. That’s going to make life more difficult.

The Jacksonville Jaguars know they have something special in Trevor Lawrence, but they haven’t quite put it all together yet. Still, I think they’re solidly the second-best team in the division, but with a wide range of outcomes.

Then there’s the Indianapolis Colts with Anthony Richardson and the Tennessee Titans with Will Levis. We didn’t get a big sample size from either during their rookie seasons, but they did enough to give hope. This is the only AFC division where I can imagine either team coming out on top. But until another quarterback reaches Stroud’s level, the Texans are the early favored choice.

AFC West

The AFC West — well, the AFC — goes through Kansas City. The Chiefs showed last year that they don’t even need home-field advantage to win the AFC, and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the conference.

MAHOMES BEHIND THE BACK 🫢

📺: #DETvsKC on @NFLNetwork
📱: Streaming on #NFLPlus photo.twitter.com/eewdYOpS8c

— NFL (@NFL) August 17, 2024

It’s an easy game when you have the best quarterback in the league in Mahomes, while two teams in the division (Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos) aren’t expected to make the playoffs. That’s an easy path to at least one home playoff game for the Chiefs.

The team I haven’t mentioned so far is the Los Angeles Chargers, who threw the show this offseason by signing Jim Harbaugh away from Michigan. Look, Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s been, and I expect more of the same given that he lets Justin Herbert lead his physical offense. But a plantar fascia injury to Herbert early in training camp limits what their ceiling could be. They’re in the midst of a transitional period of roster turnover — Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler left in the offseason — but a healthy Herbert with Harbaugh sidelined should at least give them a shot at knocking the Chiefs out of first place.