NFL QB Stock Report, Week 11: Caleb Williams’ shortcomings have followed him out of college

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NFL QB Stock Report, Week 11: Caleb Williams’ shortcomings have followed him out of college

The Chicago Bears’ midseason offensive regression has raised concerns about the long-term viability of Caleb Williams as a franchise quarterback.

This rating is important to measure, especially for Bears fans who have seen this movie a few times before. Firstly, it’s fair to be critical of Williams’ recent shortcomings. Secondly, it’s also fair to point out that the problems aren’t entirely Williams’ fault. And third, let’s not be hasty in burying a 22-year-old with nine career starts.

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Williams has 38 sacks in part because he holds the ball too long and doesn’t trust his cues. But there have also been predictable issues with the offensive line, along with flaws in play design (route spacing and timing) and play calling. Williams’ 15 sacks over the past two games are more than three teams have allowed all season – the clearest sign of diminished confidence.

“He’s doing the same things he did in college in terms of holding the ball and being inconsistent with his reads,” said a rival director. “He could get away with running around, throwing the ball up for grabs, throwing it across his body, and he had some success with that. You don’t get away with that very often at the NFL level. I’m a little surprised they haven’t been able to clean up some of this.”

Another director confirmed that evaluation.

“Their ability to protect him would be questionable,” the second director said. “He always held the ball too long, so you need to minimize pure dropback situations and support him with a run game, which improves the impact of your RPO, QB movement and play action.”

Athletic’s Week 11 QB Rankings

Williams was a magician at USC, drawing comparisons to Patrick Mahomes with his ability to play off the schedule, and some of that was on display with the Bears. Problematically, however, Williams seems to rely too much on the improvisational material. It’s common for young quarterbacks to revert to their most comfortable tendencies when the pressure mounts, and that has led to some of Williams’ issues.

99 + 41 = the 5th Pats sack today ‼️

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/ppqt8toDbk

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 10, 2024

To combat that, the Bears need to proactively find ways to put Williams at ease before things naturally get tense. The goal is to help him play without thinking too much, to anticipate the throws instead of waiting for the routes to develop and to keep the offense on schedule.

That is of course easier said than done.

“It’s really tough, probably one of the hardest things to do, especially with a guy like that who’s so used to holding it and running around trying to extend playing time,” one offensive coach said. “It’s just repetition and emphasis. And at some point it has to click. There really is no easy way. It’s a process.

“They also have to arrange things that he is comfortable with and give him the opportunity to expand things. In any case, it is a huge challenge.”

The coach attributed this mainly to the “typical rookie” struggling with timing and confidence in his reading skills, though the Bears’ offensive scheme needs improvement. Bears coach Matt Eberflus said Monday that the team is evaluating whether offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will remain in his role as play caller.

The defense was in turmoil yesterday.@Mike Dussault19 highlights key contributors on the defensive end: pic.twitter.com/q9fL97HvpU

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 11, 2024

Williams’ problems have been compounded by another factor. The Bears’ three-game losing streak included games against rookies Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye, both of whom have played very well and remain on an upward trajectory.

“The expectations were so high,” said the coach. “He could never match that.”

It’s enough for Bears fans to have flashbacks of Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields, highly drafted QBs who didn’t pan out due to poor evaluations or poor overall situations. Williams has the talent, but it’s up to the organization to fully cultivate it.

They were on a roll for a while, improving to 4-2 after putting up 71 points in back-to-back wins against the Panthers and Jaguars, but the team — and the offense in particular — has been flat since Daniels beat them with a Hail Mary in week 8. The silence has exposed problems that extend beyond the starting quarterback.

Williams’ exciting flashes suggest there is enough talent out there to still develop into a bona fide franchise quarterback. He was the consensus number one pick before the draft for a litany of reasons, so the Bears’ evaluation holds up.

But they must continue to work with Williams to make sure it works as they envisioned.

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Hey, Darnold

Sam Darnold is having the best season of his career as coach Kevin O’Connell has tapped into the potential that made the QB the No. 3 pick in 2018. In all likelihood, Darnold has been productive enough to make it to the top. quarterback in free agency, meaning he should have a monster contract going forward.

However, Darnold endured the kind of performance against the Jaguars on Sunday that will fuel skepticism as the Vikings prepare for the playoffs. He was 24 of 38 for 241 yards passing with no touchdowns and three interceptions.

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The three choices were egregious. The first was just outside the red zone, while the other pair was in the end zone. Darnold aimed all three at Justin Jefferson.

Darnold just needs to play within himself to be successful. The Vikings have an excellent defense, stars at the skill positions, a complementary running game and a high-level QB-friendly scheme.

Darnell Savage lands our third INT of the day!@darnellsavage_ | #MINvsJAX on FOX pic.twitter.com/Ch7HAtKn2h

—Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) November 10, 2024

The 27-year-old just needs to take the actions available to him and stay safe with the ball. His accuracy was erratic during the 12-7 win in Jacksonville, and all three interceptions took points off the board.

Even worse, this was against a woeful Jaguars defense that entered the game ranked third-worst in points allowed and second-worst in both total yards and passing yards. They had two – yes, two – interceptions all season and allowed at least 28 points in five of their previous seven games.

Maybe it was just a bad day. Everyone has them. Tom Brady had three interceptions in nine games.

But if the Vikings want to make any noise in the playoffs against much stronger defenses than the Jaguars, Darnold has to be much better and prove that this was a fluke. If that happens, he’ll get a life-changing contract this offseason.

Ripple effects in Jacksonville

The Jaguars have lost 13 of their last 16 games, and Trevor Lawrence was declining before the left shoulder injury kept him out Sunday. And the defense has deteriorated after head coach Doug Pederson made a number of staff layoffs this offseason, which is a combination of factors that generally lead to further changes.

If the Jaguars are active in the coaching market after the season, a few rival executives agreed that Jacksonville could be a prime spot.

“You’re going to work with Trevor and try to help him get everything back on track,” one of the executives said. “He wasn’t great, but I still think he has all the tools to be a good quarterback. That will be a job that people should want.”

Lawrence signed a five-year, $275 million contract before training camp, but his numbers are trending in the wrong direction for the second straight season. There have been issues with the Jaguars’ ground game and a host of mistakes on offense, including drops and penalties that have plagued the group for the better part of two years.

The point is, Lawrence shouldn’t take so much of the blame. It would be a tall order for any quarterback to play well in that situation. And there’s no denying how well he played in 2022, and how much the Jaguars continually rallied around him due to late deficits.

No, Lawrence hasn’t lived up to the pre-draft hype as a generational quarterback, but no one can do it alone. If the Jaguars improve the operation around him, they will maximize their return on investment.

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If Lawrence continues to miss time in the short term, it presents an intriguing opportunity for Mac Jones. He didn’t play well against the Vikings, but Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores has made life hell for Brock Purdy, CJ Stroud, Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers this season. You’ll have to excuse Jones for a pedestrian outing in his first start with a new team in the 10th game of the season.

Problematic for Jones, however, is that the Jaguars visit the Lions this week and then end their bye against the Texans. That’s a grueling period for the former first-round pick, who hopes to use it as an audition for next season.

Jones could benefit if Lawrence’s absence lasts longer, as the Jags finish the season against the Titans, Jets, Raiders, Titans and Colts. If Jones can put together some good tape, he could work his way into a camp competition against a young QB, similar to the way Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith and Darnold recently revived their careers. Otherwise, Jones will likely remain on the backup circuit for a while.